Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
FXUS65 KTFX 151548
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
948 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2014
Minor update to the forecast this morning adjusting POP and QPF as
showers exit Central Montana. Expect a mostly sunny sky for the
latter morning before upper clouds begin to move back into the
region from the west. Gusty west winds will redevelop and
continue through the day with the strongest along the northern
Rocky Mountains. Overall weather will be quiet with high
temperatures in the low 50s over much of the region.
Rain and snow showers will continue to move across the area through
the early morning hours mainly impacting locations in Central
Montana. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by mid morning
and will Prevail at VFR levels through the TAF period afterwords.
Winds will remain breezy throughout the taf period and mountain
obscuration is possible with moist flow aloft continuing to move
across the area. Suk
The risk for ice jams over Southwest Montana will increase as
temperatures warm this weekend. Cooler air will move back into the
area Monday along with rain and snow.
/ISSUED 640 AM MDT Sat Mar 15 2014/
Today through Monday...A shortwave will be leaving central
Montana and moving into Eastern Montana today while high pressure
rebuilds over the zones. Precipitation associated with this system
has ended to the west but some rain and snow continues farther
east. The next low pressure trof is over the Eastern Pacific. A
series of disturbances in the flow aloft ahead of this trof will
move across western Canada and into Alberta by tonight. This will
develop a good surface trof along the lee of the Rockies. At upper
levels, the low pressure trof over the Eastern Pacific will move
over the West Coast tonight and the ridge over central Montana
will flatten, and strong west winds will develop ahead as this
system approaches the Rockies. The combination of the surface trof
and strong winds aloft will bring a period of very strong surface
winds to central Montana. The low pressure trof will move over the
West Coast Sunday night and the strong winds aloft will weaken by
Monday morning but widespread precipitation will be in place as
the trof crosses the zones Monday. Zelzer
Monday night through Saturday...Moist conditions will continue over
the area as a shortwave trough continues to create widespread
precipitation through Tuesday. Some drying will occur for the middle
of the week as a flat broad trough moves in behind the shortwave.
Another approaching shortwave trough will move over the region on
Thursday...it does not appear to be well organized at this
time...however moist flow associated with it will allow for some
showers to develop under northwesterly flow aloft. This flow regime
looks to remain in place through at least the rest of the weekend
bringing an increased chance of precipitation as various
disturbances move across the area. Models continue to remain in
disagreement over the timing and location of these pulses of
energy...but confidence is increasing in the pattern change towards
wetter conditions near the end of the week and beyond. With the
wetter conditions temperatures are expected to cool back towards
seasonal averages for a majority of the area. Suk
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 36 59 35 / 20 10 10 20
CTB 47 35 55 34 / 10 10 10 30
HLN 50 34 60 37 / 20 10 0 20
BZN 46 27 55 33 / 20 10 0 10
WEY 40 19 45 25 / 20 10 0 10
DLN 47 28 55 32 / 10 0 0 10
HVR 52 34 61 36 / 30 10 10 20
LWT 43 32 55 35 / 50 10 10 10
HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Sunday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton.
HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT Sunday Liberty...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon MDT today FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern
Lewis and Clark...Judith Basin...Meagher.
FLOOD ADVISORY until Monday afternoon for Jefferson.