Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 021057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The cold front is expected to move into
the area late this morning and continue to progress south across
most of Central Montana by the early afternoon. Strong winds, snow
along with a dramatic temperature drop can be expected behind the
front. Expected snow amounts are not changing dramatically at this
point, however with gusty winds accompanying the precipitation
accurate measurements of snowfall are going to be tricky. Near
whiteout conditions will be possible at times through the day
Monday and into Tuesday Morning. Temperatures are expected to fall below
zero with no significant rebound by Tuesday Morning. After the
snow ends on Tuesday another round of winter weather advisories
may become necessary due to the threat of low wind chill values.
The coldest temperatures may occur Wednesday morning before
southwest winds begin to develop and warm temperatures back toward
the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Extended forecast period currently
looking mostly uneventful, with broad ridge of high pressure over
the western states and Pacific coast bringing dry conditions and
warming temperatures.  With the center of the ridge only moving from
the coast to the Great Basin area during this period, Montana will
be under persistent northwesterly flow aloft, with most of the
available moisture being deflected more into eastern parts of the
state.  Latest forecast models are in good agreement overall, with a
slight exception Fri aftn to midday Sat.  The GEM, GFS and ECMWF all
depict some variation of a shortwave trof crossing through the top
of the ridge at that time, but only the EC shows a more developed
low pressure system with widespread light snow occurring mainly Fri
night. Have kept a mention of scattered snow showers for the Rocky
Mtn Front and the central/southwest mtn ranges to cover the EC`s
solution but have little/no snow for the lower elevations.  May see
windy conditions as well for the central and Hiline counties on
Thurs and Sat as leeside surface trofs develop, creating favorable
pressure gradients for stronger winds.  Finally, after warming back
into the low-mid 40s on Thurs, temps don`t change much each day,
perhaps making it to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the
weekend.   Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
High clouds continue to increase over the area as a disturbance
aloft approaches Montana from the west. A strong cold front will
move south out of Canada and across the area after 18z. Widespread
snow and gusty north winds will accompany the front. VFR conditions
prevail with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 18z due
to low ceilings, snow, and blowing snow. Mountains becoming obscured
after 18z as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  -4   7  -5 / 100  90  20   0
CTB  24  -6   5  -7 / 100  30  10   0
HLN  34   3  14   0 /  80 100  30   0
BZN  36   1  14  -4 /  30 100  40  10
WEY  35  -6  15 -20 /  30  70  40   0
DLN  37   1  17  -4 /  20 100  30  10
HVR  28  -4   5  -9 /  80  30  20   0
LWT  31  -5   5  -8 / 100  90  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Jefferson...
Madison...Meagher.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
Tuesday Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Judith Basin...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Tuesday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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