Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 301140
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Warm and Dry conditions will dominate
the start of the work week as an upper level ridge slowly moves
over the area. Winds will be breezy at times today...mainly in the
afternoon. An approaching shortwave trough will bring gusty winds
ahead of it on Tuesday along with a cold front that will bring
another round of moisture to the area Tuesday evening. This will
effectively signal a change to more seasonal cooler and wetter
condtions going forwaard with showers persisting through
Wednesday. There is a potential for wind highlites Tuesday Night
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. Confidence is not great at
this time so will hold off for the time being. Suk

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range period opens with an
upper trof exiting the area to the east. Isolated snow showers will
continue overnight Wednesday. By Thursday, a moist and somewhat
unstable northwest flow aloft returns and scattered showers will
develop over the area by afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be on
the light side across the plains and the highest amounts will be
confined to the mountains of southwest Montana. Upper ridging builds
over the area Friday and Saturday bringing generally dry
conditions though isolated showers will be possible over the high
country of southwest Montana. Easter Sunday finds another upper trof
approaching western Montana. The models are leaning toward scattered
rain and/or snow showers for Sunday and Monday. At this point in
time, have kept PoPs low for this weekend event and will await
forthcoming model runs to further clarify the event. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
Building high pressure over the area will provide dry and stable
conditions. A chinook arch that has developed in the lee of the
Rockies will dissipate after 18z. Surface winds will become gusty
again after 18z, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  69  35 /   0   0  20  30
CTB  65  42  61  34 /   0   0  10  40
HLN  70  41  66  34 /   0   0  20  30
BZN  69  35  71  28 /   0   0  30  40
WEY  58  28  60  17 /   0   0  20  40
DLN  68  40  68  29 /   0   0  20  40
HVR  69  37  72  35 /   0   0  20  30
LWT  67  42  74  35 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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