Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 271741
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1135 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015

Aviation section updated

.UPDATE...
Based on latest observations increased winds for the rest of this
morning over the Rocky Mountain Front. Lowered sky cover for this
afternoon for a few locations. Increased high temperatures for
today 2 degrees across the board with the exception of the Rocky
Mountain Front where there will be relatively more cloudiness.

High wind...Have made some changes to the high wind watch. For
portions of the high wind watch other than the Rocky Mountain
Front delayed the beginning of the watch until 9 am Saturday as
there does not appear to be much threat for high winds before then
and mostly likely the real threat for high winds will be in the
afternoon. Latest guidance takes a swath of strong winds aloft
through central Montana during the afternoon so have added
Cascade and Meagher Counties..the remainder of Lewis and Clark
County..and also eastern Pondera and eastern Teton Counties. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period.
However...a chinook arch will continue to reside along the front
range thru 03z Saturday. Additionally...it will become
windy...especially by Saturday morning. A Pacific cold front moves
thru the region on Saturday morning...the strongest winds are likely
to along and behind the cold front. Showers will develop by Saturday
morning...and gradually spread east over the Plains by mid day.
Brusda


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2015/
Friday through Sunday...A warm and eventually windy weekend will
begin today with temperatures climbing well above average and
possibly breaking a some high temperature records for the day. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday...this will cause
winds to increase ahead of the front late Friday and through the
day Saturday. The frontal passage is still expected to take place
in the late morning hours...however strong winds are expected to
remain behind the frontal passage and could impact most of North
Central and Central Montana. Have expanded the high wind watch due
to this threat to include the plains counties of Central and North
Central Montana. Moisture with the frontal passage remains to be
rather elusive with showers possible...however a widespread
long lasting precipitation event is not expected. Behind the front
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler...however still above
seasonal averages. Temperatures are expected to climb again as
conditions begin to dry back out on Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday...Broad high pressure will extend across
the Great Basin and Northern Rockies from Sunday night through Tues
morning, making for quiet weather conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Mon.  The first element of a trend
back toward more seasonal conditions is forecast to occur on Tues as
a quick-moving shortwave trof and surface cold front cross the
Divide by late morning.  Forecast models have been consistent for
several runs in showing scattered areas of light valley rain/mtn
snow on Tues aftn/eve, with slightly better chances of precip over
southwest MT. Also, still keeping an eye on Tues for possible high
wind highlights for the central and Hiline counties as projected
winds aloft and surface pressure gradient remain favorable for gusts
of 50 mph or more. The remainder of the week is basically an
unsettled pattern with persistent northwest flow aloft.  A couple of
additional shortwaves will move through the flow on Thurs and late
Fri, bringing periods of scattered rain/snow showers. The region`s
current run of well-above normal temperatures will end with the
weather system on Tues as daily highs will trend downward into the
low-mid 50s for Wed through Fri.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  46  60  36 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  70  44  58  36 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  74  43  59  37 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  73  37  63  28 /   0   0  40  20
WEY  59  34  55  20 /   0   0  50  20
DLN  71  41  59  31 /   0   0  30  10
HVR  75  41  65  33 /   0   0  60  10
LWT  73  46  64  35 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Toole.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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