Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 290924
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
324 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIREWEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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