Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 200231
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
831 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Breezy westerly winds will gradually decrease through midnight. As
a ridge of high pressure builds over the Treasure State this
weekend, mainly dry and mild conditions are expected along with
light winds. The current forecast is on track so made no changes
this evening. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Generally dry northwest flow aloft will continue overnight. A few
isolated showers over Northeast Montana will end by 04z. Gusty
surface winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains
will decrease by 04z. VFR conditions prevail with possible MVFR
conditions in the vicinity of showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

Tonight through Sunday...A slightly unstable airmass coupled with
a weak disturbance moving southeast through Alberta has fueled a
few thunderstorms in far northeast Blaine County. This agrees well
with changes made with the morning update and this convection will
move into Eastern Montana before 6 PM. An upper level ridge
develops along the west coast tonight and will act to shunt the
Alberta disturbance away from my forecast area with skies expected
to clear out during the evening hours. The upper ridge will
continue to build through the weekend and is expected to nose into
the Northern Rockies by Sunday. The result of this activity will
be a mostly sunny and dry weekend with temperatures rising back
above seasonal averages by Sunday afternoon. mpj

Sunday night through Friday...A high pressure ridge will be
moving east of the zones Sunday night and a weak shortwave will
track across Southern Idaho towards Central Montana. This will
bring moisture and instability across Southwest Montana by Monday
afternoon and this flow continues through Tuesday. A slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms is expected but overall the
air mass will remain quite dry. A ridge will be in place again
over the region by Wednesday and the air mass will warm and temps
will be well above seasonal normals through Thursday. A deep low
pressure trof moving over the West Coast will bring moist,
unsettled flow aloft over Central Montana by late Thursday
afternoon...and instability and a chance of thunderstorms will
again develop. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  72  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  42  71  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  43  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  34  71  34  71 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  72  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.