Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 231053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
353 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A weather disturbance aloft will be moving
out of southwest Montana early this morning but do expect a few
associated snow showers into the morning commute. Moisture will be
increasing in a northwest flow aloft tonight and this pattern will
continue through Saturday night. There will be precipitation over
the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front with scattered
precipitation for the other mountains. Snow levels from 4500 to
5500 feet tonight will rise to between 6500 and 7500 feet Saturday
night. Gusty downslope winds will keep the plains mostly dry. A
slight chance of freezing rain has been added to some of the
southwest valleys as nighttime temperatures are expected to fall to
below freezing. Should freezing rain happen to develop it should
not last very long. The approach of an upper ridge Sunday will
result in a little warmer temperatures along with a generally dry
day. As for the high wind warning it looks like periods of high
winds will continue into Sunday night so have extended the high
wind warning through Sunday evening.

Sunday Night through Friday...Medium range forecast models agree on
keeping an upper level ridge of high pressure over the western
United States through the early part of next week. This will keep
the area dry, breezy, and unseasonably warm through Tuesday, as
temperatures will likely remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A
shortwave trough will then move from off the southern California
coast Monday night through the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday and into
the central Rockies Tuesday night. This will bring a cooler and more
moist westerly flow aloft to the area Wednesday into Thursday, as
temperatures cool closer to normal with a chance of mainly mountain
precipitation. Models then indicate that the Hudson Bay low will
deepen into Friday, causing the flow aloft to shift more
northwesterly. This will cool temperatures close to freezing for the
plains, along with bringing an increased chance for snow. This
situation will continue to be monitored for a potential prolonged
weather pattern shift too cooler weather as January transitions into
February.  Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
Gusty westerly surfaces winds with gusts 20 to 30kts at KCTB will
continue to gradually decrease overnight before increasing again 30
to 40 kts on Friday afternoon. Low cigs as well as an isolated rain
and/or snow shower are possible at KHLN and KBZN through 14z on
Friday morning as a weak upper-level shortwave moves across the
area. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are also possible, but
forecast confidence is low. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected
over the next 24 hours. Widespread mountain obscuration will persist
overnight with clearing skies from north to south by midday Friday.
MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  36  48  40 /   0  10  20  10
CTB  40  35  45  38 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  38  27  43  31 /  10  10  20  30
BZN  37  22  43  27 /  20  10  20  30
WEY  31  12  29  20 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  42  27  47  30 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  39  34  44  35 /   0  20  20  10
LWT  41  31  45  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.