Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 180457
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...Radar echoes continue to expand over Central Montana this
evening. Have sent out a second update to increase pops to likely at
Great Falls and northeastward through Chouteau/Hill Counties for the
remainder of the evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
Moisture and energy in the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough will generally obscure mountain tops
in rain/snow showers across north central and southwest Montana
through at least 14Z. Mid level cloudiness and scattered rain will
also continue at lower elevations. Conditions there will mostly
remain at low VFR levels, but occasional MVFR ceilings are possible
with some showers. After 14Z, the shortwave will move across western
and central Montana, pushing the cold front west across the area.
This will bring widespread strong and gusty westerly winds to the
area, which will help diminish the showers and clear out the skies.
Most areas will have westerly winds of 20 to 25 kt with gusts of up
to 40 kt by 20Z, but areas along the Rocky Mountain Front will
likely have gusts in excess of 45 kt.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 700 PM MDT Thu Apr 17 2014/
Tonight through Sunday Evening...High pressure over the region will
continue to degrade from the west as an approaching low pressure
system heads for Montana tonight. The passing front will bring gusty
winds and scattered showers to the Continental Divide today, with
increasing chances of precipitation over Southwest and portions of
Central Montana Friday. Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front will
pick up in speed and look to approach high wind criteria. The event
still looks to be right on the edge of high wind so the high wind
watch will continue. Winds and showers decrease Friday night as the
trof moves east. High pressure rebuilds over the area Saturday
providing dry and warmer conditions. Yet another shortwave trough
heads for the region Sunday, but its impact looks fairly minimal at
this point. Showers over the Continental Divide and gusty winds
look possible but widespread precipitation is not expected.
Afternoon temperatures will remain in the 50s today and Friday
before Saturday and Sunday should climb into the 60s.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southwest flow aloft will reside
over the region...resulting in mostly dry conditions on Monday and
increasing chances for precip by late Tuesday as the airmass becomes
a bit unstable. There is even a small chance for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon over Southwest MT. For Tuesday night and
Wednesday...expect a fairly strong area of low pressure to move
through the region. Widespread precipitation amounts of a 0.25 to
0.75 inches are expected over the region...with the heaviest precip
likely falling Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Latest
forecast models continue to struggle with the movement and intensity
of the mid-week system, with some notable inter-model and run-to-run
differences between the GFS and ECMWF solutions on precipitation
amounts. Further adjustments in the solutions are likely, and we
will continue to monitor closely, with the precip amounts being the
primary focus because of possible flooding impacts if the higher
amounts do verify. Additionally...temperatures will cool quite a bit
for Wed/Thu due to clouds/precip. BrusdaWaranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  56  31  64 /  70  30  10   0
CTB  37  51  29  60 /  20  30  20   0
HLN  42  57  34  66 /  40  30  10   0
BZN  37  59  29  66 /  30  60  20   0
WEY  34  52  26  54 /  50  80  30   0
DLN  38  59  29  65 /  40  40  20   0
HVR  39  61  31  63 /  30  50  30   0
LWT  37  57  28  61 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
Eastern Glacier.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM Friday to Midnight MDT Friday Night
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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