Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241130
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday...Another round of active weather is
expected today as a low pressure system moves across the area
bringing widespread gusty winds and fire weather concerns. A high
winds warning remains in affect for the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front and adjacent high plains. Due to low minimum RH values
coinciding with the timing of the strongest winds, the fire
weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning. Once the low
pressure system moves off to the north east a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the area. This pattern change
does not bring any significant chances of widespread
precipitation, but will begin to warm temperatures back towards
seasonal averages behind the cooling expected Thursday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models agree with the idea of
having a strong ridge aloft over the western U.S. For the lower
elevations in the forecast area highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday
will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ridge will result in dry conditions with the possible
exception of isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains and
southwest Montana. For fire weather this pattern will lead to
increased curing of fuels. Winds will be less than 10 mph and
lightning activity should be minimal. &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
VFR conditions are expected. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms southeast of a line from KBZN to KMQM should end by
mid-morning. A weather disturbance will move east through the area
today. Models differ on their precipitation forecasts with this
disturbance. Some have precipitation as far west as a line through
KHLN-KGTF while others are dry. Decided to restrict any mention of
precipitation to KLWT. The main message today will be gusty winds.
Expect local wind gusts to more than 50 knots over the northern
Rocky Mountain Front and possibly as far east as Toole County.
Expect clear skies overnight with winds diminishing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for fire zone 115
(Chouteau/Fergus counties) and the southern third of Blaine County
to a red flag warning from noon Thursday until midnight Friday
Morning. RH values are expected to drop into the teens when winds
are near their strongest values with most locations seeing sustained
winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph. There is also
concern that lightning starts from thunderstorms Wednesday Night may
hold over and then spread as the strong winds develop today. Suk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  77  49 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  69  50  72  47 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  79  53  80  53 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  80  44 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  75  33  73  34 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  77  44  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  81  52  79  51 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  81  49  79  49 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to Midnight MDT tonight
Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Glacier...
Toole.

&&

$$

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