Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 300310
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover continuing to dissipate
across the region, except for lingering mostly cloudy conditions
along the Rocky Mtn Front.  Also watching some low stratus clouds
over southwest corner of Saskatchewan that may work their way into
parts of northern Blaine County overnight.  But rest of the forecast
area will see mostly clear skies tonight, which will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.  Going forecast in
good shape; only notable tweak was to add patchy fog overnight into
Thurs morning for the Milk River valley.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Skies will continue to clear the rest of
this afternoon and evening as an upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rocky Mountains. The ridge will gradually progress eastward
through the region during the short term period. This feature will
provide widespread dry and warmer conditions but the ridge will be
somewhat dirty allowing variable mid to high level clouds to move
over the CWA from Thursday through Friday morning. Skies clear out
again on Halloween Day with afternoon high temperatures expected to
climb 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages and a few locations
possibly reaching near record high territory. MPJ/Hoenisch

Friday Night through Sunday...Deep upper level trough, currently
in the northern Pacific, will move into the western US Saturday and
lift north through the Northern Rockies and MT Saturday night and
Sunday. Models have yet to resolve some major differences with the
strength of this system, though generally agree on the larger
scale picture. GFS model would bring rain/mtn snow to the forecast
area Saturday night with the open upper level trough pulling out
Sunday afternoon after dropping a few inches of snow in the mtns
with light accumulations possible Sunday morning at lower
elevations. ECMWF model, which has been more aggressive with this
system, has continued to trend stronger with a much wetter and
also cooler closed upper level low solution, which could bring
significant snow accumulations to the region including some lower
elevation areas of North-Central MT. Despite these differences
confidence is increasing in at least some portions of the forecast
area seeing significant snowfall/impacts from this system and have
increased pops/qpf/snow amounts Saturday night and Sunday as well
as cooled temperatures further for Sunday. Hoenisch

The system exits Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be
seen over the mountains. High pressure transits over the region
Tuesday before unsettled westerly flow brings the chance of
precipitation back to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High
temperatures fall 5 to 10 degrees per day Friday into Sunday
before warming back to near 60 Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below freezing in many
locations, especially over Southwest Montana.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
A few light sprinkles will affect Central/North Central MT through
02z...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Fri. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  57  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  29  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  59  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  22  47  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  30  58  37  67 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  50  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  34  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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