Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 222106
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
206 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...A weak upper level disturbance moving
through the large scale upper level ridge over the Western US will
spread clouds across the region tonight with precipitation mainly
limited to some light snow showers along the Continental Divide
and a few isolated sprinkles/flurries over the Central/SW MT Mtns
tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail through Friday
across most of the forecast area. Windy conditions on the plains
will continue to diminish slightly through tonight though breezy
west to southwest winds will continue. Along the Rocky Mtn Front and
adjacent plains, wind speeds have diminished below critical
thresholds, but are expected to redevelop late Friday afternoon and
continue through Saturday as another upper level system moves over
the top of the longwave ridge across Western Canada. This system
will bring increasing winds again to areas further east across the
remainder of north-central MT as well on Saturday. Moisture with the
second weather system is also a little more robust and looks to
produce a period of steadier snow across the mountains, particularly
along the Continental Divide north of Rogers Pass. Valleys and
Plains could see some light rain showers with snow levels primarily
above 5000 ft Friday night and Saturday. Snow accumulations at/above
pass levels look to range up to 2 inches with 2-5 inches at
elevations above 7000 feet along the Continental divide north of
Rogers Pass. Hoenisch

Saturday Night through Thursday...A trough moves across Central
Montana and the Continental Divide during Saturday. Precipitation
chances climb across Central Montana but the system moves through
fairly quickly suggesting most places will not see much in quantity.
Precipitation looks to be rain at lower elevations and snow in the
mountains. Summer-like high pressure over the west coast builds
north late Sunday helping push most moisture out of the region for
Monday and Tuesday. The pattern holds into Wednesday as moisture
from a low pressure system in Mexico moves north through the Western
U.S. and into Southwest Montana Wednesday afternoon. Most moisture
from this system exits the region Thursday. West southwest winds
across much of the region look to remain in the 10 to 20 MPH range
throughout the period. High temperatures remain well above seasonal
averages with some locations in the low 50s this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Gusty surface winds vcnty KCTB/KHVR/KGTF/KLWT is the primary weather
concern today.  Pressure gradient associated with an approaching
weather system will remain sufficiently strong through the
aftn/early eve hours to produce gusts of 25 to 35 kts over central
MT and gusts of 40-45 kts likely at KCTB.  Same weather system will
also bring in increasing mid- and high-level cloud cover, with VFR
ceilings generally above 12000 ft this aftn and decreasing to
7000-9000 ft this eve/overnight.  However, most of the region should
stay dry, other than some scattered showers over the higher
elevations of the Rocky Mtn Front.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  43  37  48 /  10   0  10  20
CTB  26  42  35  46 /  10   0  10  10
HLN  23  36  27  42 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  20  33  23  44 /  10  10  10  20
WEY   8  30  13  29 /  20  20  20  30
DLN  23  39  27  47 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  26  39  33  46 /  10   0  20  20
LWT  26  42  31  46 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 5 AM MST Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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