Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...Upper low remains stationary over the
Great Basin. Moisture influx with the southeast flow aloft
continues across southwest Montana but has weakened. Precipitation
chances will be greatest this morning across the southwest, then
increase again across central Montana during the afternoon. Some
patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain Saturday and where cloud cover has thinned. Heaviest
precipitation remains over southwest Montana tonight and over
eastern portions of the county warning area through Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon the upper low will continue to slowly
fill as it moves across Wyoming. Scattered showers will persist
over the southwest Monday but central and north- central Montana
will see only isolated showers. Tuesday will find an upper trof
embedded within the northwest flow aloft moving across the area.
Again, scattered showers will develop over southwest Montana with
isolated showers across the central and north-central plains.
Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today, climb to
near average Monday, and then drop back below seasonal averages
Tuesday as cooler air advects across the area in the wake of the
upper trof passage.

Tuesday night through Sunday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible during this period. The
main change to the forecast is that the GFS model is now a bit
colder than the EC model...especially for Wed and Thursday. As a
result...snow levels have been lowered quite a bit. By Thursday
afternoon...a mix of rain/snow will be possible over the northern
Plains...especially in the Cut Bank area. Overall...any snow
accumulations Tuesday night thru Thursday will be quite
minor...mainly less than a half inch during any 12 hour period. The
main impact of any accumulating snowfall this week for Wed/Thur
would be the potential for a few bridges to become icy...as
temperatures fall to near freezing during the morning hours. For
Friday through Sunday...expect a weak upper level ridge to rebuild
over the Northern Rockies. This will result in warmer air moving
back into the region with afternoon highs on Saturday around 70
degrees and then mostly in the 70s for Sunday. For now I have
generally kept the forecast dry for Friday thru Sunday...but the EC
model is starting to hint at a weak upper level disturbance moving
through next Sunday afternoon...producing a few showers over the
northern tier of the region. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
LIFR/IFR conditions will continue through much of the day over
portions of Central and Southwest MT. Mountains will be obscured.
Further north...IFR conditions will occur at times...mainly before
00z Monday. Expect unsettled weather conditions with IFR conditions
most likely continuing into Monday over Southwest MT. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  43  66  49 /  30  20  20  20
CTB  55  40  66  43 /  20  20  20  20
HLN  59  43  68  46 /  40  20  20  30
BZN  56  38  64  42 /  60  60  20  40
WEY  56  30  53  31 /  80  70  40  50
DLN  56  38  63  43 /  60  50  40  40
HVR  59  43  64  44 /  30  30  30  20
LWT  52  42  64  45 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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