Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 180458
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue to dissipate this evening, thus have lowered
PoPs/QPF through midnight. Overnight low temperatures will fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s with partly cloudy skies. The remainder of
the forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
The airmass will remain stable overnight. An increasing southwest
flow aloft will bring moisture and instability to the area after
18z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop after 21z
across the southwest and then move north and east. Surface winds
will become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front after 18z. VFR
conditions prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms along with gusty erratic winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 655 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2014/
Tonight through Friday...The weather pattern will be a bit more
active than it has been over the next few days...as a warm
southerly flow continues to reside over the region. Scattered
showers are moving through Southwest MT currently. Expect a few
thunderstorms to develop towards evening as well. The
thunderstorms could spread a bit further north this evening than
previously thought per the NAM model...so I have increased pops as
far north as the Cut Bank area. Expect similar conditions over the
region on Thursday...with temperatures just a touch cooler.
However...the airmass could become unstable enough that a few
strong storms could develop in Southwest MT during the late
afternoon hours. By Friday...the flow aloft shifts a bit more
westerly. This will result in slightly cooler...but still very
comfortable temperatures to reside over the region. The chances
for precip on Friday will be confined mainly to the far
southeastern sections of the CWA. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure will be building
aloft Friday night and and the air mass will be warming and drying.
Some stronger winds aloft associated with the departing shortwave
will remain over the region and the Northern Rockies and adjacent
plains will continue to be breezy through Saturday. High pressure
will continue to build and the ridge will be over Central Montana
Monday. Moisture from the south will begin to creep towards
Southwest Montana but convection associated with this will remain to
the south of the CWA. Heights will begin to fall Tuesday and
instability will return to southern portions of the CWA Tuesday
afternoon. The air mass will remain stable and the chance for
convection will be very low. The next shortwave will be over the
Eastern Pacific and approaching the West Coast Tuesday. This will
bring disturbed flow across the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moisture will spread across the Rockies
but most precip will be restricted to the western mountains. With
the warm air mass, temperatures will continue above normals through
the period. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  82  52  77 /  10  20  10  10
CTB  48  82  46  74 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  53  82  51  79 /  10  30  20  10
BZN  49  78  46  76 /  10  30  30  20
WEY  40  72  38  68 /  20  60  40  20
DLN  52  77  47  75 /  20  60  30  10
HVR  53  87  52  81 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  83  52  77 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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