Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 271751
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes made to the going forecast. Light precip
continues along portions of the Rocky Mountain Front as well as over
portions of Blaine and Fergus counties. Strongest wind gusts reside
over eastern portions of the forecast area and should gradually
diminish by late this evening. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
A disturbance aloft is responsible for cloud cover and scattered rain
and/or snow showers across the area. Conditions should improve this
afternoon as the disturbance moves further east. Skies should clear
after 00z. Gusty northwest surface winds should decrease during the
afternoon. VFR conditions prevail with occasional MVFR conditions in
the vicinity of showers. Mountains obscured at times through 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 700 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2014/

Today through Wednesday...Forecast area is currently beneath an
upper level wave that will move off to the east today. At the
surface, breezy north to northwest winds will continue across much
of Central Montana but will gradually diminish from west to east.
Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will also affect
portions of my CWA this morning but accumulations are expected to
be generally light. By this afternoon skies will begin to clear
from west to east as another upper level ridge builds over the
region. This reprieve will be relatively brief as jet stream
energy pushes through the Pacific Northwest and creates zonal flow
aloft with Pacific moisture streaming across the Continental
Divide from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Surface
low pressure east of the divide will combine with moderate mid-
level winds to produce widespread breezy to windy conditions over
the plains and along the east slopes of the Rockies. Latest model
data suggest that locally strong winds are possible along the
Rocky Mountain Front early Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. However, a widespread high wind event does not look
likely at this time so will not issue any highlights. Finally, the
strong and moist westerly flow aloft will bring widespread snows
to the mountains along the Continental Divide late Tuesday through
Wednesday but winter weather highlights do not appear to be needed
at this time. mpj

Wednesday Night through Monday...Unsettled westerly flow develops
over the region Wednesday. Several disturbances embedded in the flow
will pass over Montana bringing light precipitation mainly to
portions of the Continental Divide. High pressure and warming
temperatures move into the region Thursday into Saturday as a low
pressure system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to
move onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to
the Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models begin to bring precipitation chances to all of Central
Montana by early Sunday. Cold air associated with this system may
mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana Sunday
night. The system exits east  Monday but some lingering
precipitation may be seen over the mountains. High temperatures will
fall 5 to 10 degrees per day from Friday into Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  29  53  40 /  20   0  10  10
CTB  44  26  51  38 /  20   0  10  10
HLN  51  30  54  37 /  10   0  10  20
BZN  47  22  50  30 /  10   0  10  30
WEY  37  16  39  21 /  20   0   0  30
DLN  46  26  52  32 /  10   0  10  30
HVR  47  23  53  36 /  30   0   0  10
LWT  44  26  54  38 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.