Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 071132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2014

Aviation section updated

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...A shortwave has moved east of the zones
which remain underneath northwest flow aloft and building high
pressure. A weak cold front associated with the passing shortwave
will move south through the region during the day.  Some moisture
will be at lower levels with the cold front but the air mass moving
into the local area will be quite dry and generally stable today.
The main effect across the region will be cooler temperatures. The
upper level ridge will be over Central Montana late Tuesday and
Wednesday. The southwest zones become unstable Tuesday afternoon but
moisture for convection will be scarce. By Wednesday afternoon, a
shortwave will be moving over Western Montana and the ridge will be
flattened. Afternoon instability will be a little more widespread
with the best combination of CAPE and shear over the southwest
zones. The storms will be high-based and strong, gusty outflows are
possible. Temperatures will cool today but trend back above normals
Tuesday and Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Sunday...A warm weather pattern will
continue to reside over the region for late next week and into next
weekend. Expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from 6 to
12 degrees above normal...with only an isolated passing thunderstorm
from time to time. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
generally be over the region through the period...allowing for the
above normal temperatures. On Wednesday evening...monsoonal moisture
combined with an upper level disturbance moving through the region
will be best chance/timeframe for a thunderstorm to form. For
Thursday through Monday...no strong dynamics...combined with minimal
amounts of monsoonal moisture...will only allow for isolated chances
of any thunderstorm activity. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.
A line of light rain showers will affect areas mainly east of a line
from Great Falls to Havre through mid morning. Low clouds will also
be passing through North Central MT through 18z creating some MVFR
conditions. Expect improving conditions after 18z with VFR
conditions prevailing late this afternoon through this evening.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  53  84  57 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  75  51  82  54 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  82  56  88  61 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  79  49  84  54 /  10  10  10  10
WEY  76  39  79  46 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  82  51  85  57 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  80  51  85  55 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  74  50  80  54 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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