Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 251145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

...Strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front today...
...Near record high temperatures through Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...A strengthening upper level ridge of high
pressure currently along the Pacific coast will dictate the
weather for central and southwest Montana through Tuesday.
Initially, a disturbance riding over the ridge will keep showers
in the mountains this morning and bring increasing westerly
downslope winds to much of the area throughout the day. Winds are
already gusting over 50 mph this morning over the Rocky Mountain
Front. Am expecting gusts to exceed 60 mph at times there and into
Toole County by this afternoon, so will be leaving the High Wind
Warning out through this evening. Elsewhere, it will be gusty,
but widespread high wind criteria winds are unlikely. However, a
few favored spots (such as Norris Hill) will need to be monitored
for possible expansion of the warning. As the ridge gradually
shifts east into the Rockies tonight into Monday, winds will
decrease somewhat, but increased subsidence (downward motion)
aloft will keep the area dry and unseasonably warm. The next
disturbance to affect the area will approach from the west on
Tuesday, shifting the ridge axis east of the area. The main impact
initially will be to bring increasing cloudiness and slightly
cooler air to the area. Despite this slight cooling, the
unseasonably strong upper ridge will cause overall temperatures
to be warm enough throughout the period to approach record highs
for this time of year.
Coulston

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message is the GFS and
ECMWF are on the same page in going with drier and not as cool
conditions later in the week. Tuesday night moisture associated
with a weather disturbance aloft moving from the Great Basin to
the central Rocky Mountains will bring a chance of snow to mainly
far southwest Montana. Otherwise an upper ridge upstream of
Montana will bring mostly dry conditions. Have lowered the
inherited chances of precipitation such that there is generally
only a slight chance of snow showers over the mountains. However
would not be surprised if the entire forecast area is dry from
Wednesday night through Sunday. Models are on the same page in
bringing a colder airmass into the forecast area Wednesday. But
this will only bring high temperatures close to normal for this
time of the year. Then models now agree in warming temperatures
over the weekend. Have started the trend of going with warmer high
temperatures but there is the potential for high temperatures to
be much warmer than this latest forecast. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Scattered snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain
Front and southwest Montana this morning will diminish during the
day and should end by late afternoon. Broken-overcast clouds between
8000 and 12000 ft MSL over southwest Montana will dissipate by late
morning. Otherwise expect ceilings above 15000 ft. Gusty westerly
winds today over the plains will diminish slightly overnight. Wind
gusts 60 to 70 kts at times can be expected over the Rocky Mountain
Front today. Local wind gusts 40 to 50 kts will spread from the
northwest plains (KCTB) to central Montana (KLWT) this afternoon.
Finally there is a very small threat of MVFR visibilities in
freezing fog over northcentral Montana early this morning. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  45  64  38 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  59  41  60  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  56  38  60  26 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  52  33  56  25 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  36  17  43  12 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  57  39  60  31 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  55  39  54  32 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  58  42  64  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...
Toole.

&&

$$

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