Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 300915
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
315 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RESIDE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN...AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR -20C...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE
AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE TONIGHT...THUS SHOWERS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
BE UNDERNEATH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROF APPROACHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT BECOME BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST. MOIST, UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ZONES AND
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE LOW
CENTER OF THE TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES EAST AND, AT LOWER LEVELS, MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL COOL AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
UPDATED TAFS THIS EVENING INCLUDE REMOVING THE FOG. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THE TERMINALS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT HELENA/BOZEMAN FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF/LIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TERMINALS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUN THOUGH DUE TO MID CLOUDS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  34  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  33  61  35 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  36  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  55  32  60  31 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  47  28  51  26 /  20  10   0   0
DLN  52  33  59  32 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  61  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  34  59  35 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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