Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 290326
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
926 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THAT GENERATED STRONG GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
THE ROCKY MTN FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MONTANA INTO
ALBERTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN TAPERING OFF, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER AND
PONDERA COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SITES ARE STILL GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH
OR HIGHER. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GETS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA TONIGHT BUT THESE BANDS HAVE GENERATED LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO/WASHINGTON. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY SITES LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ACTUAL
RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05
INCH). WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2346Z. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
LITTLE RAINFALL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL TAPER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXITS ONTO
THE PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112/114/116/117/118. FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR LOW HUMIDITY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH) INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 536 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE UNDER STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AIR
QUALITY REMAINS A PROBLEM DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF SUNDAY...BUT SMOKE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN GIVEN THE EXTENT AND CONTINUING ACTIVITY OF WESTERN
WILDFIRES. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
OF CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONTANA REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR
THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON- ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO
AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  59  77 /  10  20  20  10
CTB  56  88  53  71 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  91  55  78 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  54  91  54  80 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  44  81  45  71 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  55  88  52  77 /  10  20  20  20
HVR  58  95  59  80 /  10  10  30  20
LWT  58  94  58  78 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR MTZ112-114-
116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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