935
FXUS65 KTFX 290158
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
758 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
   across Northern Montana this afternoon and evening
 - Turning warmer next week with many low elevation locations
   seeing temperatures exceed 90
 - Dry early next week, with showers and thunderstorms looking to
   return around midweek

&&

.UPDATE...

Upper level ridging is beginning to nudge eastward from the
Pacific Northwest this evening. Before those effects begin to be
felt, troughing with axis centered across eastern MT is resulting
in a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms. These are
mainly confined to areas near the Hi-Line and in the West
Yellowstone area. High resolution guidance suggests these will
decrease in coverage through the remainder of the evening and
early overnight as ridging begins to take hold. Temperatures begin
to trend warmer Sunday as the ridging builds in, with a dry
period developing throughout least Monday. Overall, minimal
changes were needed this evening - just minor tweaks to PoPs to
account for current trends. -AM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 517 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Aside from a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across North
Central Montana, the next few days will be rather dry as upper
level ridging begins to build across the North Western United
States. As this ridge builds across the region, temperatures will
begin to climb, with many areas seeing temperatures climb into the
90s by Monday or Tuesday. Warm temperatures will linger across
the area until around Friday. Moisture working into the area will
allow for some showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday,
with chances increasing through the remainder of the week into
Independence Day.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures next week: Confidence is rather high in a period of
seasonably warm temperatures for a good chunk of next week thanks
to a building upper level ridge. Overall, there doesnt appear to
be much in the way of uncertainty with regards to actual
temperatures, as model spreads are generally within 5 degrees or
so across the area. Biggest area of uncertainty will be in regards
to showers and thunderstorms beyond Wednesday, as a well timed
shower or storm may keep temperatures from reaching their full
potential.

Showers and thunderstorms next week: As moisture begins to sneak
into the plains of Montana next week, the added moisture will help
to add some instability to the atmosphere and allow for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms to develop every day from Wednesday.
There does remain a fair amount of uncertainty as to the coverage
and strength of the storms, as the warm air aloft and weak
directional wind shear may limit thunderstorm potential. With that
said, a few of the storms could muster enough strength and
organization to allow for some gusty winds and hail to form.
Ludwig&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z TAF Period

Aside from a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening along the Hi-Line and in the KWYS area, benign
conditions are forecast as an upper level ridge begins building
in. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/00Z TAF Period

Aside from a few lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening along the Hi-Line and in the KWYS area, benign
conditions are forecast as an upper level ridge begins building
in. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  80  51  89 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  46  77  49  86 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  51  80  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  80  46  93 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  37  74  34  84 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  44  77  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  79  49  90 /  30   0   0   0
LWT  47  73  48  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls