Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260941
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
341 AM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Mainly clear skies, dry conditions, and
warming temperatures are expected to start the work week today as
high pressure builds across the region. Today`s warming trend will
bring temperatures back into the 70s, with some mid to upper 70s
possible in the high plains east of the Rocky Mountain Front.
Winds will be similar to the past few days, with increasing winds
in the afternoon but remaining tame for Montana standards.
Abundant dry air with this system will slightly elevate fire
danger today, however, fuels still remain in the low to moderate
class. Dry conditions will then continue tonight through Tuesday
morning. Ridge begins to flatten across the area for Tuesday
afternoon, again causing more breezy winds from increased
westerly flow. With this dry, warm, and well mixed downsloping
air, summer like temperatures will return for Tuesday...with highs
in the 80s making a return for the first time since earlier this
month. A weak sfc low then develops by late Tuesday afternoon
across much of the state, while sfc high pressure moves into
central Alberta. This sfc high pushes a weak sfc cold front out of
Canada Tuesday evening/night. There is some limited moisture and
instability available with this feature. Although not likely,
added slight chances for an isolated shower across mainly the Hi-
Line during this time frame. Boundary stalls for Wednesday, then
transitions to a weak warm front aloft with sw flow. Maintained
more isolated showers for Wednesday morning, however, any limited
moisture should exit into Canada by Wednesday afternoon and end
chances for any weak isolated showers. Wednesday temps will be
cooler, in the 60s and 70s, with the passage of Tuesday night`s
front. Anglin

Wednesday night through Monday...Medium range models are once again
in good agreement for midweek into the early portion of next weekend
before solutions diverge for Sunday and Monday. Forecast period will
be dominated by an upper level low off the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest coast which places Montana beneath a moist
southwest flow aloft. Wednesday evening is expected to be dry but
isolated showers should move into the mountains near Glacier Park
and in Southwest Montana by early Thursday morning. A somewhat
unstable airmass will fuel scattered mountain showers and a few
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday with an isolated storm or two
possibly moving out over the plains. The upper level low/trough
begins to move inland late Friday and will be accompanied by an
associated surface cold front. Models differ on timing but the upper
level trough and associated front will move into the forecast area
sometime next weekend. The approaching weather system will bring an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday
night with unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures likely
persisting through Monday as Monday remains beneath the trough.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0600Z.

VFR conditions will continue through at least the next 24 hours.
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and dry conditions
across the region during the forecast period...with only a few mid
to high level clouds possible at times. Light westerly breezes may
increase slightly Monday afternoon (with peak gusts around 20 kts),
before diminishing Monday evening. Anglin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  81  48 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  77  45  77  43 /   0   0  10  20
HLN  78  45  80  45 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  75  44  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  68  31  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  75  40  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  74  45  82  47 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  73  50  79  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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