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000
FXUS65 KTFX 161611
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1011 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...

The air mass will remain unsettled this morning as several
disturbances continue to move through the flow aloft. Canceled the
winter weather advisories over the Little Belts but the high
lights over the Northern Rockies will continue. Freshened first
period wx and wind grids. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
Widespread snow with IFR conditions or lower will affect North
Central MT this morning...with the heaviest snowfall expected at Cut
Bank and Lewistown. Areas of fog are possible at Havre/Great Falls.
Expect mountains to be obscured through the day. Scattered showers
are possible in Southwest MT...mainly this afternoon...with the
Bozeman area seeing the best chance for scattered precip. Expect
slowly improving conditions after 00z Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

Today through Friday...Moist upslope flow continues across the
area this morning. Precipitation remains generally confined to the
Hi-Line and across the northeast portion of the county warning
area. Winter weather highlights for this area will continue. Very
little happening over the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and over
southwest Montana. Latest model runs indicate this area should
remain generally dry and have dropped the winter weather
highlights that had been in effect. Temperatures remain at or
slightly above freezing this morning, in contrast to what the
models had previously forecast. Because of this, snow amounts
should be lighter than previously thought with most roadways
remaining wet rather than snow covered. Rain and snow showers will
continue through the afternoon before decreasing this evening. An
upper ridge builds over the area Thursday but enough moisture
moves through the ridge to generate isolated showers during the
afternoon. The ridge proves to be a progressive feature and moves
to eastern Montana Friday morning as an upper trof moves across
the Pacific Northwest. The upper trof swings across northern
Montana Friday afternoon and will bring widespread showers to the
area. A tightening surface gradient Friday will allow for gusty
afternoon winds. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages
today but warm to near normal values Thursday and Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers will be coming to
an end over the region on Friday night...as an upper level
disturbance exits the region. With an upper level ridge of high
pressure building over the Pacific Northwest this weekend...expect
mostly dry conditions...along with mild temperatures. Afternoon
highs on Sunday will average between 4 and 8 degrees above normal
for many areas. It will be a bit breezy though...especially along
the front range of the Rockies. For Monday through
Wednesday...expect increasing chances for precipitation over the
region...as a moist southwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
The best chance for precip should be moving into the region on
Wednesday...along with a bit cooler temperatures. Again the GFS
model has a fairly wet solution for our region...and it will have to
be watched closely for possible hydrologic highlights. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  32  58  39 /  30  30  20  20
CTB  40  28  54  34 /  40  40  30  30
HLN  51  33  62  38 /  30  30  20  30
BZN  51  29  63  33 /  30  40  10  20
WEY  44  21  52  31 /  30  30  10  20
DLN  51  29  63  36 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  43  27  56  32 /  50  30  20  20
LWT  41  25  54  32 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$


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