Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241544
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
944 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Little changes needed this morning. High clouds are starting to
stream in as a result of exiting high pressure ridge...and the
return of southwest flow. Feel these high clouds wont hurt us to
much...with warming temperatures in the 60s still expected. Winds
will start to increase out of the south southwest this
afternoon...and may become gust at times. With breezy winds and
RH values in the 20s...some increased fire danger is expected
today. Those doing any burning should use caution or consider
delaying operations. Rivers continue to be on the decline...with
no current flood warnings in effect. Anglin

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1130Z.

VFR conditions will continue through late this evening. A moist
southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough will bring
increasing mid and high level clouds mainly after 18Z. Gusty west-
southwest winds will develop Friday afternoon. Rain showers will move
near, and across the KBZN/KEKS terminals Saturday morning, producing
MVFR and temporary LFR conditions. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

Today through Sunday...Clear skies this morning will yield to
increasing clouds from the west during the afternoon. Temperatures
trend a few degrees warmer today while afternoon relative
humidity falls to near 20 percent. Boundary layer mixing will help
bring gusty southwest winds to the surface. Those considering
spring ag burning should use caution or delay such activity. Rain
showers develop over the Northern Rockies late this afternoon as
an Alberta Clipper system takes shape and begins to pull away to
the east tonight. Rain and mountain snow will spread south along
the Continental Divide tonight as a cold front crosses the
forecast area. Snow levels drop below 6000 feet by Saturday
morning but overall mountain snow accumulation remains low. Only
the higher peaks of Southwest MT stand to receive around 2-4
inches of snowfall through Saturday evening. Precipitation ends
overnight Saturday, with shortwave ridging providing generally
fair weather for Sunday. Temperatures remain above seasonal
averages even while trending slightly cooler for the weekend. PN

Sunday Night through Friday...The region comes under
influence of an upper level trough late Sunday into Monday, with the
potential for splitting upper level energy resulting in a snow/rain
mix across much of the area, but especially across SW MT, where the
highest precipitation chances look to be Monday into Monday night
before the system departs to the east. Conditions improve later
Tuesday through Wednesday aside from scattered, mainly mountain
showers. Uncertainty increases with the following system for late-
week. This system looks to push a cold front south and east through
the region, with a round of upslope flow and moisture that would
allow for some accumulating snow across parts of the High Plains as
well as parts of SW MT. The GFS and Canadian models indicate a quick
burst of snow in a short amount of time (6 hours or less), while the
European model indicates up to a 24-hour period of snow from
Thursday into Friday for some parts of our area. This system will
bear watching through the middle of next week. Cassell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  37  57  32 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  55  34  52  29 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  60  36  55  32 /   0  30  20  30
BZN  58  35  52  30 /   0  40  40  30
WEY  39  28  39  20 /  10  60  70  50
DLN  54  32  50  28 /  10  30  20  20
HVR  64  38  59  31 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  60  36  52  31 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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