Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
952 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Earlier updated to drop the winter weather advisory for the
western portions of southwest Montana as snow has stopped. Also
for this area have lowered sky cover for the rest of this morning
and raised the high temperatures for this afternoon a little. With
recent snowfall lowered highs for today for Bozeman and Helena for
today. Other forecast temperatures looked OK. Blank

&&



.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1220Z.
A steady light snow will affect much of North Central MT through 00z
Thursday. Visibilities will generally range from 1SM to 3SM through
mid afternoon...along with IFR ceilings. The snow will end from
south to north...with conditions improving in Southwest MT by mid
afternoon. Gusty west winds will start to develop by 12z Thursday
over the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2014/

Today through Friday...Strong northwest flow aloft will continue
over the zones but the jet moves north and east during the day as
the high pressure ridge slowly moves east. Dynamics are not strong
but lift will spread across the zones today. Temperatures will be
quite moderate, though, and precipitation type and snow amounts type
will vary greatly across the region. The airmass is drying out
across the southwest zones and the advisory over Beaverhead and
Madison will likely only be needed through early morning. Elsewhere,
moisture continues to feed into the area and widespread snow will
continue. Mid-level winds will strengthen overnight with 50+ kt
winds over the Rockies by Thursday morning. Low-level winds will
switch from the south towards the west Wednesday night and
strengthen towards morning as well. A shortwave will move through
the flow aloft Thursday and should help boost winds at the surface.
Will issue a high wind watch for the Northern and Southern Rockies
Wednesday night through Friday. And Eastern Glacier may need
highlights in future periods. Winds will also keep overnight temps
moderate along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. A trof
over the Eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast Thursday night
and over the Pacific Northwest Friday. An associated cold front will
cross the Canadian border late Friday afternoon with a chance of
precip over Cut Bank by late afternoon. Zelzer

Friday night through Wednesday...Another period of active weather is
expected to affect the entire region through the weekend. Expect
another major arctic airmass to move southward into the
region...beginning late Friday night over North Central Montana and
during the morning hours on Saturday in Southwest Montana.
Widespread snow will accompany the arctic air. Snow amounts of 3 to
5 inches are expected over the northern Plains late Friday night
through Saturday...with mainly 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of
Southwest MT. Most central mountain ranges will see 6 to 10 inches
of snow. However...mountains along the divide could see 2 to 3 feet
of snow...mainly from north of Lincoln to the Canadian border. This
includes Marias Pass on Highway 2. Very cold air moves back into the
region on Saturday for a few days as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will likely be early in the day. By Sunday
morning...widespread temperatures of 10 below to 20 below are
expected over much of North Central MT...with temperatures around
zero in the Southwest. These forecasted temperatures are a blend of
the GFS/EC...as the EC is about 8 degrees colder than the current
forecast. Wind chills could be near 40 below from Cut Bank to Havre
on Sunday morning. The GFS13 has the cold air modifying a bit early
next week...but another upper level disturbance moves southward
through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Thus leaned a bit
above climo pops for that period...with below normal temperates
continuing into the mid portion of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  33  52  37 / 100  30  10  10
CTB  34  28  46  31 / 100  40  20  10
HLN  40  33  50  33 / 100  20  10  10
BZN  37  29  48  30 /  50  20  10  10
WEY  36  26  38  25 /  60  20  10  30
DLN  48  34  49  34 /  20  10  10  20
HVR  33  24  44  28 / 100  70  30  20
LWT  35  31  51  35 / 100  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Friday evening
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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