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000
FXUS65 KTFX 281207
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2015

Updated Aviation

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...With the shortwave trough exiting the area
today, snow will decrease across far southwest Montana, while
clouds decrease across the entire area from the northwest. A
Canadian cold front will also sweep through the area today, which
will likely cause temperatures to remain steady or slowly fall
throughout the day. Forecast highs over the plains of north
central Montana will be mainly impacted by this, and have
therefore based them on minimal warming from current temperatures
there. Areas of low clouds in Alberta/Saskatchewan behind the
front will likely move into north central Montana later this
morning, but forecast models indicate that they should either burn
off or move east of the area this afternoon. The northwesterly
flow aloft in the wake of the shortwave will be relatively dry
tonight through Friday, keeping the area mostly clear to partly
cloudy, with temperatures only running 5 to 10 degrees above
normal. With recent snowfall in southwest Montana, have added
mention of patchy freezing fog for tonight into Thursday morning.
Winds will be breezy out of the northwest today with the passage
of the front, but they should be relatively light through the
remainder of the period.
Coulston

Friday Night through Tuesday...Forecast models continue to
indicate a trend to a colder and wetter pattern beginning this
weekend and through next week. The first weather system will
bring colder temperatures and light snow to north-central and
southwest Montana Friday Night through Saturday. The ECMWF keeps
the bulk the moisture and precipitation across eastern Montana
while the GFS brings it further west to areas along the
Continental Divide. Have trended more towards the GFS solution
and increased PoPs to high chance over the plains and likely in
the mountains. Snow accumulations will generally be light with 1
to 3 inches possible across lower elevations and 2 to 5 inches in
the mountains at and above pass level. Another surge of cold air
and light snow will move over the area Sunday through Monday with
the possibility for mixed precipitation Monday morning as a
Pacific weather system and milder airmass move over a cooler
airmass at the surface, but forecast confidence is low. Forecast
models indicate that an active weather pattern will persist
through much of next week, however there remains a lot of
uncertainty regarding timing, precipitation coverage and amounts
with each disturbance. Have increased PoPs to around climo with
temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200z.
A weak shortwave will move across the area this morning with a few
rain and/or snow showers and MVFR conditions possible at KBZN
through 15z. A weak cold front is also crossing the International
Border this morning and as it pushes across north-central and
central Montana, lowering cigs are expected, but VFR conditions
should prevail. Skies will clear after 22z today. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  28  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  26  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  23  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  45  23  40  19 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  40  18  34   9 /  70  10  10  10
DLN  50  26  44  23 /  20   0  10   0
HVR  51  24  41  23 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  50  23  42  22 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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