Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 161530
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...

A minor shortwave feature seen in WV imagery cresting the large
scale ridge axis is responsible for increasing high clouds over
central and southwest MT. Updated the forecast to increase cloud
cover over southwest MT and introduced a slight chance for showers
for this area today. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1120Z.
A high pressure ridge will build over Central Montana today and the
air mass will remain dry with light winds. Upper level moisture will
increase by afternoon although lower levels will remain dry. Extreme
Southwest Montana will become slightly unstable this afternoon and
isolated thunderstorms are possible. These should stay south of
KBZN. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 521 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014/
Today through Thursday...Mostly quiet conditions today as a low
pressure system off the California coast begins to push some
moisture and instability into the region. Wednesday afternoon and
evening may bring some isolated thunderstorms to Southwest
Montana, with chances increasing further north and east Thursday
afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 80s.

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will cross
Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a fairly
fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much time to
moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and scattered
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially over the
southwest zones. The shortwave will bring stronger winds aloft into
the region and mixing should bring breezy conditions to the Rockies
and adjacent plains during the evening. Instability will be quite
weak Friday but with cooling temps aloft, will continue to mention
afternoon thunderstorms. High pressure aloft will build Friday night
and continue to dominate the pattern through the rest of the period.
The ridge will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and
some moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge.
Extreme Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be
affected but the chance of convection will be slight and will not
mention at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the
period and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  81  44  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  85  51  88  53 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  83  47  84  50 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  75  37  74  40 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  82  49  84  52 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  81  46  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  82  50  85  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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