Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 262337
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2330Z.
Mostly clear skies across the region this aftn, with a few areas of
scattered clouds near some of the central and southwest mountain
ranges.  Only exception is KCTB, where moist southeast (upslope)
flow is generating a persistent MVFR overcast at 1500 ft.  Will keep
the low clouds at KCTB into the overnight hours, but expect
remaining TAF sites to be mostly clear with light winds through
mid-aftn tomorrow.  Next weather system arrives Fri eve, bringing
increasing mid-level cloud decks, but looks like areas of -SN will
be limited to locations along/south of a KHLN-to-KLWT line.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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