Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 290528
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1125 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING SHOWER MENTION AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. HAVE ALSO MADE UPDATES TO WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO INCREASE SPEEDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0525Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KWYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALSO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15, BUT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY, AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S.
COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  82  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  45  82  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  32  75  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  42  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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