Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 172145
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
245 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the region today will
slowly move eastward tonight as a Pacific cold front approaches
the region. Expect light snow to develop by Thursday morning over
the Rocky Mountain Front, with a mix of rain and snow developing
Thursday night over Central and Southwest MT. Afternoon temperatures
will be mild on Thursday, but gradually cool down into the 20s and
30s over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday...Main concern over the next few days will
be the Pacific cold front approaching from the west. The front
will move through the region Thursday night, bringing an end to
the milder conditions. Light rain/snow will develop ahead of the
cold front. However, any period of rain should be fairly
light/short lived as the cold air will move in fairly quick. The
snow will begin up along the northern Rockies by Thursday morning,
and then generally continue into the evening hours. Further south,
the snow is not expected to begin until the evening hours. Most of
the snow will fall south of a line from Great Falls to Lewistown.
The snowfall will likely affect the Friday morning commute,
especially along the I-90 corridor from Whitehall to Bozeman. An
additional winter weather highlight might be needed for this
region in later forecasts. Mild temperatures on Thursday will cool
to a few degrees above normal on Friday. Brusda

Friday night through Thursday...The weather pattern will be more
active west of the divide during this period, as the flow aloft
will generally be out of the west. The westerly flow will create
downslope conditions east of the divide, limiting the amount of
precipitation. However, temperatures will be closer to January
normals, as temperatures continue a trend of slowly getting
colder. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1645Z.
A chinook arch will reside over the region today and into this
evening. Otherwise, expect light snow to develop towards 12z over
the Rocky Mountain Front. Some passes/mountains could become
obscured after 12z Thu. Some haze/pollution will affect the Helena
valley until mid afternoon today, until the inversion breaks.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across the region through
the period. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  45  29  38 /   0  20  40  20
CTB  34  43  28  36 /   0  10  20  10
HLN  18  34  22  31 /   0  20  90  30
BZN  19  32  27  33 /   0  10 100  70
WEY  18  28  28  31 /  10  50  90  80
DLN  24  37  29  34 /   0  20  80  50
HVR  26  37  24  34 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  31  42  27  35 /   0  10  70  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MST Thursday Northern
Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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