Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 262053
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
253 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE SECOND ONE WILL
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
AREA ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.  COULSTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE AXIS
OF DEFORMATION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A BROAD TROF AND MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A RIDGE
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH, ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TUESDAY FINDS
THE AREA STRONGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO
START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 21Z, ALLOWING
CEILINGS TO RISE TO LOW VFR LEVELS AT TIMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
HOWEVER, FOG IN THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST WILL LOWER
CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 03Z. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND ONLY OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  46  32  48 /  20  40  40  50
CTB  31  47  31  48 /  10  40  50  50
HLN  36  53  36  55 /  20  30  30  40
BZN  34  53  33  53 /  30  40  40  30
WEY  29  46  27  48 /  30  30  20  30
DLN  33  54  33  54 /  20  30  20  20
HVR  33  44  33  47 /  40  40  60  50
LWT  32  42  32  45 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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