Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261718
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1018 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...

Increased PoPs across central Montana this morning as a weak
upper-level shortwave moves through the area. Light snow and fog
are expected through mid-day. Over lower elevations, snow
accumulations will be an inch or less with 1 to 2 inches expected
in the mountains. Visibility in light snow and fog will be less
than 1 mile at times and with the combination of falling snow and
icy roads, be prepared for difficult travel conditions. High
temperatures will be steady in the 20s. The remainder of the
forecast is on track so made no further changes. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1718Z.
A weak disturbance moving through the northwest flow aloft will move
through Central Montana Southwest Montana this afternoon and exit
the region this evening. Areas of light snow associated with this
feature will generally cause local MVFR conditions although some IFR
is possible. Conditions will dry tonight although another weak
disturbance will create MVFR/IFR conditions again Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2014/
Friday through Sunday...A weak trough moving over the region this
morning will bring a chance of short lived light snow. So far this
feature has not produced much so noticeable precipitation is
questionable at this time. This feature quickly passes over the
region with generally quiet weather behind it. A more substantial
low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest later
Saturday. This system will begin to impact Montana Saturday night
into Sunday as snow moves towards the Continental Divide from the
west northwest. Expect a fairly similar setup from the last storm
with the exception of much colder temperatures in the wake of this
event. Snow totals over a two day span look very similar to the
last storm as well. Temperatures remain below freezing through
the next few days and will significantly drop into next week.

Sunday night through Friday...The period begins with a broad upper
trof continuing to impact the area with widespread light snow.
Conditions improve on Monday though isolated snow showers will
linger through the afternoon. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong
upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific placing the area
under a cool, but generally dry, northerly flow aloft. Snow showers
will be confined to the western mountains. An upper trof will swing
south out of Canada on Thursday and bring the possibility of
scattered snow to the Hi-Line during the afternoon. By Friday, the
trof will deepen and push further south and west. Scattered snow
will become more widespread Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be
well below seasonal averages to start the period with Tuesday
morning likely being the coldest morning with readings in the teens
below zero many areas. Temperatures will slowly warm by the end of
the period though readings will generally remain below seasonal
averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  12  29  13 /  30   0  10  90
CTB  23  13  29   9 /  20   0  10  90
HLN  21   8  25  16 /  30   0  20 100
BZN  18  -3  20  10 /  10   0  20 100
WEY  21  -4  18  11 /  20   0  50  70
DLN  21   4  23  10 /  10  10  20  90
HVR  26  15  32  14 /  20   0  10  50
LWT  24   9  30  14 /  20   0  10  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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