Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 252036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...An upper level high pressure ridge is over
the West Coast and this ridge will gradually move over the Rockies
by Friday. The air mass will steadily warm and temperatures will
rise towards record values by Friday. At lower levels, a surface
trof is in place along the lee of the Rockies and west winds extend
across the plains. A series of upper level disturbances will
move through the top of the ridge and keep this lee trof in place
through Friday. Winds increase across the Rockies and adjacent
plains tonight and generally remain brisk through Friday. Multiple
near record temps are possible Friday with many most locations
rising into the 70s. Zelzer

Friday Night Through Wednesday...High pressure ridge over our
region on Fri will track into eastern MT by Sat morning, followed
closely by a quick-moving, shortwave trof that will cross east of
the Continental Divide around midday. Latest forecast models
suggest that much of the available moisture may get wrung out over
western MT, leaving just spotty showers over central/southwest MT.
This solution is also supported by the drying effects of strong
westerly/downslope winds generated by the trof`s passage. As the
system races into Dakotas by late Sat night, high pressure ridging
will re-establish itself over the Northern Rockies, bringing warm
temperatures and dry conditions for Sun/Mon. On Tues, a second
shortwave that closely matches the look and evolution of
Saturday`s system, is projected to sweep through the state.
Currently, models indicate a bit more moisture and colder air with
the second system, increasing the chances for rain/snow mix and/or
light snow for lower elevations Tues evening. However,
precipitation should end from west-to-east Tues night with dry
conditions returning on Wed. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages through this forecast period, with the coolest
temps on Wed after passage of the second system.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period. Gusty
west winds will occur at times thru 00z Thu. Otherwise...expect
mainly some passing mid/high level cloudiness. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  64  41  75 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  36  63  41  71 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  38  65  41  75 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  30  63  34  72 /  10  10  10   0
WEY  21  51  27  59 /  10  20  10   0
DLN  33  62  38  72 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  30  66  35  76 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  34  62  39  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.