Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 272359
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL AND WET 24 HOURS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED DEEP MOISTURE INTO MONTANA VIA AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SNOW
SHOULD MOSTLY MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL
MAINLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA, LIMITING THE FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A CUT BANK TO BOZEMAN
LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.  COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONVOLUTED PATTERN ALOFT IN
THE SHORT TERM CARRIES OVER INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A SMALLER OMEGA BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE
AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN US. OF NOTE...FOLLOWED MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC/GEFS
BLEND FROM THE WEEKEND ON. THE GFS...WHICH TRIES TO HOLD ON TO
THE TROUGH A BIT LONGER...APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND ENSUES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WENT LOWER WITH POPS FROM SATURDAY ON AS THERE IS A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS
BASED ON THE GEFS SUGGEST A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEXT WEEK
BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS NEXT WEEK AND
ADDED CONFIDENCE FROM ANALOGS...WENT A BIT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2357Z.

AN EASTERLY FETCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MONTANA. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. DESPITE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE S/W...IT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE ABUNDANT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS.
OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OF
NOTE...THE LOWEST CIGS/VIS AND BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH A LOWER CHANCE ACROSS SW MT. MARTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  45  32  56 /  80  70  20  10
CTB  32  44  32  55 /  80  70  30  20
HLN  37  51  35  60 /  60  50  20  30
BZN  34  49  33  59 /  40  20  20  20
WEY  27  45  27  50 /  20  30  20  40
DLN  32  52  32  58 /  10  20  10  30
HVR  34  47  34  56 /  90  50  10  20
LWT  32  41  32  53 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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