Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 100406
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BUT HAVE DECREASED ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND MILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS WILL THE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 159 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES, CREATING MIX OF CLEAR
SKIES AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVE, WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF CUTTING THROUGH THE
THE RIDGE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE US/CAN BORDER.  THIS
SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH ENERGY OR MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR US FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS EVE. ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HI-
LINE EACH DAY.  SOUTHWEST MT WILL SEE MORE LIMITED WARMING (MID 40S
TO AROUND 50) AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VALLEYS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY.
WARANAUSKAS

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  61  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  56  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  29  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  20  43  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  12  35  15  35 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  26  45  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  29  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  35  52  33  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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