Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261126
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday...Fairly quiet weather will prevail over the
region through the weekend as an upper level ridge of high
pressure continues to build over the Northern Rockies. As a
result...no precipitation is expected through Sunday...with
afternoon temperatures for today near/or just a touch warmer than
Friday. For Sunday...afternoon highs will be about 4 to 8 degrees
warmer than today. It will be breezy at times this
afternoon...with the strongest winds likely over eastern Blaine
and Fergus counties. With humidities just a tad higher as well
for today...I will hold off on any Red Flag Highlights. For
Monday...some monsoonal moisture is expected to move into
Southwest MT by late in the day. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty on how much much moisture is going to move northward
into the region...thus the chances for pops on Monday remain quite
low at this time over Southwest MT. Afternoon highs will continue
to warm on Monday...and high temperatures should be just a tad
warmer than Sunday. Brusda

Monday night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
indicate that Montana will remain beneath an upper level ridge
through much of the forecast period. As a result, have made minimal
changes to the going forecast package with warm temperatures
expected through the week. As mentioned yesterday, the wild card in
this pattern will be how much monsoonal moisture can make it`s way
northward along the leading edge of the ridge. Models are in a bit
better agreement bringing an upper level disturbance and moisture
into far Southwest Montana around mid-week so have increased pops to
chance category near Yellowstone Park for this period. Have also
trended forecast high temperatures up a bit across the entire CWA.
mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z
Upper level ridge will build over Western Montana with mostly clear
skies and widespread VFR conditions expected through Sunday morning.
Breezy west to northwest winds develop during the afternoon over
portions of North Central Montana but diminish quickly after 00Z
Sunday. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  76  48  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  83  55  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  81  46  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  75  36  81  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  81  47  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  78  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  75  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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