Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281750
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Weak upper level ridging continues to progress east across the
Northern Rockies and MT today with dry conditions prevailing for
areas east of the Continental Divide with increasing high clouds
this afternoon. Areas along the Continental Divide near Glacier Park
and the Bob Marshall Wilderness could see some light precipitation
develop late this afternoon and evening as the next Pacific weather
system, currently moving onto the Pacific NW coast, approaches the
region. Have made some minor adjustments to increase wind/wind gusts
along the Rocky Mtn Front today, otherwise previous forecast is in
good shape with no additional updates planned. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Dry and stable conditions will continue through the afternoon due to
high pressure over the area. Winds may be gusty at times along the
Rocky Mountain Front. An approaching disturbance aloft will spread
showers across the area after 04z along with increasing winds. VFR
conditions prevail with increasing MVFR conditions after 04z due to
lowered ceilings and precipitation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 28 2014/

Today through Thursday...Forecast area is beneath an building
upper level ridge with mostly clear skies this morning. However, a
strong jet stream will push inland across the Pacific Northwest
today with flow aloft flattening the ridge and bringing increasing
clouds to the region. Abundant moisture will bring widespread
showers to the western mountains from this afternoon through
Wednesday with isolated to scattered showers occasionally moving
out over the plains. Another upper level ridge builds over the
Northern Rockies Wednesday night and Thursday thereby shunting
most moisture northward into Canada and allowing the airmass over
the forecast area to dry out somewhat. Temperatures will rebound
toward seasonal averages today and Wednesday. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...High pressure and warming
temperatures move into the region Thursday into Saturday as a low
pressure system off the west coast deepens. This system begins to
move onshore Saturday bringing moisture and chances for showers to
the Continental Divide by Saturday night. Weak instability over
Southwest Montana Saturday afternoon may enhance showers there.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of Central Montana by
early Sunday, lasting through the day. Cold air associated with this
system may mean widespread chances of snowfall over Central Montana
Sunday night. The system exits east Monday but some lingering
precipitation may be seen over the mountains into Tuesday. High
temperatures will fall 5 to 10 degrees per day from Friday into
Saturday and Sunday before warming back to the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  41  58  34 /   0  30  10   0
CTB  50  36  57  31 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  55  37  58  37 /   0  20  20   0
BZN  51  29  55  29 /   0  30  30   0
WEY  38  18  42  22 /   0  30  30   0
DLN  51  32  55  32 /   0  20  20  10
HVR  50  35  60  32 /   0  20  10   0
LWT  53  38  58  35 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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