Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 260443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1043 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WTIH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY WORKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES A FEW DEGREES. ALSO FRESHENED POPS, WX, QPF, AND
WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0442Z.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH MOST LIGHTNING HAS
CEASED. SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY NEAR SHOWERS.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 539 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS VERY
WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BY EARLY
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN INTO
A BROAD UPPER TROF AND SLOWLY MAINTAINS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
QPF TOTALS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATE A RANGE FROM .20 INCHES TO .40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT
CONVERGE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER WESTERN CANADA. FOR MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME IT APPEARS THAT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPEAR EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND IT APPEARS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  46  67  46  69 /  40  70  40  50
CTB  42  65  42  69 /  50  70  50  50
HLN  49  70  48  69 /  60  50  50  60
BZN  45  67  43  66 /  30  50  50  50
WEY  35  59  35  59 /  40  50  50  50
DLN  42  66  42  64 /  50  60  60  50
HVR  44  73  46  77 /  20  50  30  40
LWT  45  66  45  68 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.