Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 131738
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast is out. Just a few minor tweaks to the sky/pop
grids. A band of clouds continues to move eastward through the
region...with drier air expected to move into the region by this
evening. Any precip today should mainly east of our area.
Forecasted highs are on track...with just an update to the current
hourly temperatures.

Looking ahead...several days of very nice/warm temperatures and
dry conditions are expected to prevail over the region from Sunday
into Wednesday afternoon. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
Areas of MVFR ceilings from KHLN north to the plains will end by
mid-afternoon. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with skies ranging
from clear to ceilings well above 15000 ft. There is a very small
threat for patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning in the
southwest valleys and valleys of the Rocky Mountain Front. Feel the
threat is so small that it was not mentioned in either the KHLN or
KBZN taf forecasts. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 520 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2014/
Today through Sunday...Quiet weather the next few days. Scattered
clouds and cool air moving in from Canada will drop temperatures
today. High pressure builds Sunday, bringing warmer and dry
conditions with temperatures reaching the 70s Monday.

Monday Night through Saturday...Early portion of the medium range
period continues to look dry, with warm days and cool nights through
Wednesday. This return to summer like weather will be courtesy of an
upper level ridge as it progresses through the Northern Rocky
Mountains. Wednesday night into Thursday will be a period of
transition as an upper level trough sweeps eastward through the
Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rocky Mountains.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages but
there will be an increasing chance for showers and possibly a
thunderstorm, especially in Southwest Montana and along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The trough will be over the state on Friday for
cooler temperatures and a continued slight chance for
precipitation.  Trough moves east of the forecast area by Saturday
for a slight rebound in temperatures with isolated mountain showers
lingering over the region. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  35  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  54  33  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  61  36  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  60  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  62  25  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  66  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  58  35  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  36  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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