Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 300936
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...Conditions across the region will remain
relatively unchanged as an upper level ridge lingers over the
western USA through the end of the week. Forecast continues to be
dominated by very warm to hot temperatures and light winds. Mid
and high level monsoon moisture will continue to make its way
north along the leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward
over the Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western
and Southwest Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill
out over the North Central Plains during the evening and overnight
hours. mpj

Friday Night through Wednesday...An unsettled weather pattern
will prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination
of Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a
broad upper-level ridge will support a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms each day. However, despite the increased
chance for precipitation, forecast confidence remains low
regarding precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these
shortwaves and associated moisture is uncertain. The ECMWF is the
most aggressive with precipitation amounts and coverage, while the
GFS and GEM models keep the better precipitation chances in higher
terrain. As for timing of the best precip chances, latest forecast
models suggest that the best chances will be Saturday
afternoon/evening and again Monday afternoon/evening as the upper-
level ridge flattens and stronger shortwave troughs move across
the Treasure State. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the 80s. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR conditions will prevail. Pockets of monsoonal moisture will
produce isolated showers and a few short-lived thunderstorms after
20Z Wednesday at KBZN/KHLN. Easterly low-level winds and northerly
mid-level winds should keep storms away from KGTF/KCTB/KHVR/KLWT.
Convection should dissipate after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  59  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  91  54  91  54 /  20  10  20  10
HLN  92  60  93  60 /  10  10  20  10
BZN  88  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
WEY  77  42  76  42 /  30  20  40  30
DLN  84  53  84  53 /  30  20  30  20
HVR  96  57  96  57 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning For southern
Gallatin County including West Yellowstone.

&&

$$

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