Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 182329
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...An upper level short wave trof exiting
to the east has tightened the surface pressure gradient and caused
gusty winds across north central Montana. Skies are clearing
with subsidence behind the passing wave axis. Winds will diminish
overnight as high pressure strengthens over the region. A warmer
air mass and ridging over the state will lead to warmer conditions
through Monday. High temperatures could set new records at some
locations. Nutter

Monday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
maintain consistency through the period. An upper trof moves to the
Pacific Northwest Monday night/early Tuesday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will bring moisture and scattered showers to
the Rockies overnight Monday. An associated cold front will move
across the plains Tuesday along with scattered showers. The upper
trof cross the Continental Divide Tuesday evening. With colder air
advecting in behind the frontal passage, snow levels will drop over
southwest Montana allowing higher terrain and mountain peaks to
receive light amounts of accumulating snow Wednesday morning. The
upper trof moves rapidly to the northeast and by Wednesday
afternoon, upper ridging returns as another upper trof approaches
the west coast. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as the upper
ridge remains in place over the area. The exception will be the
Rocky Mountain Front where weak short wave impulses will help
generate isolated showers. Temperatures will continue above seasonal
averages through the period except for Wednesday which will see
readings near seasonal averages due to the upper trof and surface
cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will rule with generally clear skies. Gusty west
winds over the plains will diminish early this evening with winds
near or less than 10 knots thereafter. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  39  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  41  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  26  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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