Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261532
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST
COAST AND THE ZONES ARE UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. UPDATED TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS AND WX. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A KGTF-KHVR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 21Z AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 555 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCATIONS IN HILL BLAINE AND CHOUTEAU COULD
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT
WHERE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS OR
HAIL...THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY RARE WITH THE BULK OF THE AREA ONLY
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST.
WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. 500MB HEIGHTS RISE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST AND USHERS IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HI-LINE BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  52  53  45 /  30  90  90  90
CTB  73  50  58  48 /  30  60  90 100
HLN  83  53  55  47 /  40  70 100  80
BZN  87  53  62  47 /  30  40  80  80
WEY  77  44  59  33 /  20  30  60  50
DLN  82  51  58  41 /  30  70 100  80
HVR  83  57  64  53 /  30  80  80 100
LWT  83  55  61  49 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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