Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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141
FXUS65 KTFX 291135
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
535 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Dry westerly flow aloft will persist
through the morning hours but will become increasingly southwest
during the afternoon as an upper trof moves across the Pacific
Northwest. A chinook arch has developed in the lee of the Rockies
and should remain through the morning hours. With moisture and
instability increasing during the afternoon, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop, mainly near the western and southwest
mountains and over adjacent plains. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in areal coverage overnight as the upper trof approaches
the continental divide and an associated cold front moves across
the area. Models are in fairly decent agreement with the forming
of a closed upper low over northeast Montana Monday afternoon and
focusing the best chance for precipitation over central and
northern Montana. The upper low continues to exit to the east
Monday night but wrap-around circulation will keep showers active
across the northeast portion of the county warning area. Tuesday
will see lingering showers in the east but drying conditions
across the west as high pressure begins to build in. Gusty
northwest winds Tuesday will keep temperatures cool. Afternoon
readings will be near to slightly above seasonal averages today
but will drop below said averages Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Sunday...Warm and dry conditions are
anticipated from Wednesday through next weekend as a broad upper
level ridge sits over the western United States. A few minor
shortwave features will move through the ridge and could produce
isolated afternoon thundershowers mainly over our western and
southwest mountains. Temperatures will trend above average, reaching
the low to mid 80s across much of our forecast area. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1135Z.
Dry westerly flow aloft will continue. As an upper level disturbance
approaches northwest Montana after 00z, the flow aloft will become
increasingly southwest. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will increase in areal coverage after 00z. VFR conditions prevail
with increasing MVFR after 00z due to lowering ceilings and
precipitation. Gusty erratic winds near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  44  59  41 /  20  40  60  40
CTB  67  41  55  39 /  10  10  60  40
HLN  71  45  61  42 /  20  40  50  20
BZN  71  42  62  37 /  10  30  40  30
WEY  61  37  56  32 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  69  41  62  37 /  10  20  30  10
HVR  72  47  59  46 /  10  20  60  60
LWT  69  45  57  41 /  10  60  50  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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