Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 010521
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WEATHER
VERY WARM BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. ONCE AGAIN IT APPEARS THAT NO
UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK. BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK CONTINUES TO BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0520Z.

THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WHILE A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN GRADUALLY DEEPENS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LIKELY TO OCCUR TOMORROW. SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER THE
MTNS. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOENISCH

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FASTER
WITH THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAN THE ECMWF MODEL. OTHER
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL AIDE IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS THAN
EARLIER RUNS SO HAVE RAISED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM
THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN WEAKEN SO TUESDAY WILL USHER IN A SPELL OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  97  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  58  94  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  57  98  60  98 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  94  54  94 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  40  84  43  86 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  51  92  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  57  94  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  92  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112>115-117.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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