Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 251141
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Aviation Section Updated.

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...A Pacific front has advanced through all
but far southern portions of the forecast area. The front is
associated with a weakening shortwave system crossing the
Canadian Rockies. Scattered rain and mountain snow showers over
Central and Southwest MT early this morning will gradually decline
in coverage while moving away to the east-southeast. SNOTEL
reports suggest mountain areas across southwest Montana could see
1-4 inches of fresh snowfall this morning. Roads around the the
West Yellowstone area may also see a slushy snow accumulation.
Isolated to scattered showers redevelop over mountain areas today
with weak mid-level instability, then continue into the evening
as another minor shortwave crosses the Northern Rockies. Breezy
west winds continue today and tonight across the North-central
plains with the passage of these two shortwaves. Fair weather
follows Sunday and Sunday night as weak ridging develops over the
area. The next Pacific trough arrives early Monday, with rain and
mountain snow showers advancing up to the Continental Divide and
spreading across Southwest Montana. PN

Monday Night through Saturday...A progressive pattern will be in
place for much of the workweek. The northern piece of a splitting
trough exits the area Monday night into early Tuesday with lingering
mountain snow showers, mainly over the far southeastern areas. A
transitory upper ridge builds over the area Wednesday, but is then
followed by a fast-moving yet digging upper level system that will
dive from the Northeast Pacific to the Southwest US and close off
into an upper low. This will bring unsettled weather to our region
in the late-week timeframe, though temperature trends since
yesterday have been warmer, indicating more of a rain threat outside
of the higher elevations of Southwest MT. Transitory upper ridging
then looks to build back across the region later Friday into the
weekend. Temperatures will average above normal through the period,
with the strongest warm anomalies coming Wednesday into early
Thursday under upper ridging ahead of the late-week storm system.
Cassell

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1130Z.

Scattered showers over southwest MT are exiting to the east with a
passing front. MVFR cigs prevail early this morning through around
14Z for KEKS/KBZN. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail. Gusty west
winds continue this afternoon across N-central MT. Scattered
mountain showers redevelop this afternoon, mainly after 20Z. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  31  57  35 /  10  10   0  10
CTB  50  28  51  31 /  10   0   0  10
HLN  54  32  56  36 /  20  20   0  10
BZN  51  30  54  35 /  40  30  10  20
WEY  38  16  38  26 /  80  30  10  50
DLN  49  28  51  33 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  59  30  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  52  30  53  34 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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