Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 170950
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...An upper ridge will build over the area
today bringing warmer afternoon temperatures. Pacific moisture
will continue to move through the ridge position today allowing
for considerable mid and high level clouds. Satellite imagery now
showing a chinook arch forming along the front range. Weak
shortwave energy moving through the ridge this afternoon may
generate isolated showers. The upper ridge moves to eastern
Montana Friday morning in response to an upper trof moving across
the Pacific Northwest. The combination of the flow aloft
increasing during the afternoon as well as a surface cold front
moving across the area, will bring gusty winds and scattered
showers. Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains
may approach warning criteria and a high wind watch has been
issued. Winds and showers decrease Friday night as the trof moves
across northern Montana. An upper ridge rebuilds over the area
Saturday providing dry and warmer conditions. Afternoon
temperatures Saturday should climb into the 60s most areas.
Temperatures should be near to slightly above seasonal averages
today and Friday and some 8 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages
Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday...A weak upper level disturbance
will try to move through the northern portions of the region late
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Thus there is a small chance
for pops early Sunday for areas north of Great Falls.
Otherwise...Sunday looks mostly dry...but not quite as warm as
previously forecasted. For Monday and Tuesday...a southwest flow
aloft will reside over the region...resulting in mostly dry
conditions on Monday and increasing chances for precip by late
Tuesday as the airmass becomes a bit unstable. There is even a small
chance for a thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon over Southwest MT. For
Tuesday night and Wednesday...expect a fairly strong area of low
pressure to move through the region. Widespread precipitation
amounts of a 0.25 to 0.75 inches are expected over the region...with
the heaviest precip likely falling Tuesday night. This storm system
is now progged to keep moving through the region...and is not
expected to stall. Thus precip amounts are not quite as heavy as
previously thought. However...that situation could change as later
model runs come available. Additionally...temperatures will cool
quite a bit for Wed/Thu due to clouds/precip. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0453Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area
along and northeast of a KCTB to KLWT line, mainly through 10Z.
These showers may cause mountain obscuration, as well as brief MVFR
conditions. After 12Z, an upper level ridge of high pressure will
gradually move into the area, but increasing moisture aloft will
keep areas of mid level cloudiness across the area. A frontal
boundary along the north and east facing slopes of the Rockies will
shift northeast through the period, causing winds over the plains to
shift from easterly to more southwesterly. However, it will sag back
to the southwest after 00Z, shifting winds over the plains back to a
more southeasterly direction.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  41  56  31 /  20  20  30  20
CTB  54  35  52  30 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  62  39  57  35 /  10  30  40  20
BZN  63  34  60  30 /  10  20  40  20
WEY  51  32  51  26 /   0  20  50  30
DLN  62  36  59  31 /   0  30  40  20
HVR  60  36  60  31 /  20  20  30  30
LWT  56  35  57  28 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
Eastern Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$


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