Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 271556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
COMING FROM CANADA HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF GREAT FALLS TO NEAR HEART BUTTE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1157Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MOIST AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT
AREAS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND AROUND PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PROGRESSING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO A THREAT AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH I
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 0.90 INCHES SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF FLOODING. MPJ

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  67  49  67  46 /  50  40  60  60
CTB  68  45  64  41 /  50  40  60  40
HLN  67  49  67  49 /  60  40  60  60
BZN  65  44  64  45 /  50  40  60  50
WEY  57  35  56  36 /  50  40  50  50
DLN  63  43  63  44 /  50  50  50  50
HVR  74  46  74  40 /  40  40  60  30
LWT  66  47  66  45 /  60  40  60  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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