Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 200502
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1102 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Area remains under a slightly cyclonic WNW flow aloft with a weak
shortwave traversing central MT this evening. Primarily mid-level
cloud-cover associated with the weak shortwave over portions of
central/SW MT, but cannot rule out an isolated sprinkle or very
light shower beneath some of those clouds tonight. Surface high
pressure and cooler airmass has spread south across the entire
forecast area as of this evening with generally light winds
expected through tonight. Expect smoke/haze to continue affecting
much of central/SW MT as well as areas near the continental
divide. Hoenisch

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
West to northwest flow aloft will continue over the region through
the remainder of the weekend. Precipitation is not expected and
areas of smoke and haze from area wildfires will persist.
Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages on Sunday. Dry
conditions and very warm to hot temperatures will continue to
affect the region through at least mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0600z.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period...however...some smoke could bring MVFR visibilities at
times. A weak and dry cold front will continue to progress across
southern Montana early tonight...bringing some breezy and
northerly winds. Mid to upper level clouds are also possible with
this feature. Winds will diminish through tonight and turn more
westerly for tomorrow...with little cloud cover expected. Area
wild fires may bring some smoke and MVFR conditions at
times...mainly from KGTF to KHLN to KBZN. Hazy conditions will
also cause mountain obscuration at times. Anglin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather highlights are not anticipated through mid-week but
still remain possible due to continued very warm, dry and
potentially breezy conditions. Next widespread fire weather event
is expected around Thursday as the upper ridge collapses and a
surface cold front spreads gusty winds and scattered dry
thunderstorms across western and central Montana. mpj

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 546 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

Tonight through Monday...Surface front brought higher humidity
and cooler temperatures to the northern half of the CWA today.
This feature is expected to continue moving southward this evening
with slightly cooler temperatures possible in Southwest Montana on
Sunday. However, models are in good agreement that temperatures
across North Central and Central Montana will rebound back toward
seasonal averages. Dry west to northwest flow aloft continues
across the region on Monday with temperatures remaining near or
above seasonal averages. Winds are expected to remain generally
light over the next few days so fire weather concerns are not
anticipated. mpj

Monday Night through Saturday...A high pressure ridge aloft will
traverse the CWA from west to east Monday night through
Wednesday, resulting in warmer temperatures and primarily dry
weather. Somewhat cooler temperatures, along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, remain possible next week Thursday and
Friday due to an upper-level trough digging southward and
eastward from British Columbia. Drier conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures may return by Saturday of next weekend, as
another high pressure ridge aloft builds-in from the south and
west. Low and high temperatures are still expected to be near or
slightly above-normal during the period. The warmest readings
will likely occur Tuesday and Wednesday, when the first of the
two aforementioned high pressure ridges is overhead.
Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  48  77  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  55  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  40  76  38  76 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  48  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  52  81  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  51  79  50  80 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.