Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 020931
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
331 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...Models continue to be consistent in a
general sense with the weather disturbance aloft and surface cold
front today and also with its associated precipitation. The cold
front early this morning had passed south of the U.S. route 2 area
and should move through central Montana by daybreak. It will then
pass through southwest Montana during the morning and afternoon. The
associated weather disturbance aloft will sweep southeast through
Montana today and should be in the western Dakotas this afternoon.
Models are still on the same page in keeping most of the
precipitation with the system north of a Boulder to Bozeman line.
Precipitation is still expected to be in the form of snow at Cut
Bank..rain at Havre, Helena, and Bozeman..and rain or snow at Great
Falls and Lewistown. Though Great Falls and Lewistown could easily
see a period of snow this morning roads should be fine for
elevations near and below 4 thousand feet. Conditions improve fairly
rapidly this afternoon as the weather disturbance aloft moves east
of the forecast area and precipitation ends. Thereafter expect a
quiet weather pattern as an upper ridge to the west of Montana keeps
the area dry. Still expect a warming trend the rest of the week
after today`s cold front. Blank

Saturday night through Thursday...With an upper level ridge of high
pressure over the region from Saturday night through Tuesday...very
little active weather is expected during this period. Overall...it
will be a nice period of weather conditions...with afternoon highs
just a bit above seasonal normals...generally running from the mid
60s to the lower 70s. Again...little to no precipitation is expected
during this period...and if any showers do develop...they should be
confined mainly to the Rocky Mountain Front and the far northern
tier of the region...mainly near the US/Canadian border. For
Wednesday and Thursday...the upper level ridge starts to break down.
The GFS and EC continue to be mostly dry...except for this period I
have confined the showers mainly to the front range and the northern
portions of the region. Confidence is fairly low in this
precipitation developing. Afternoon temperatures will start a slow
downward trend starting on Wednesday...as they cool towards more
normal temperatures for this time of the year by Thursday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Breezy west winds will continue across much of north central,
central and southwest Montana this evening ahead of an approaching
Canadian cold front. The front is currently just south of Lethbridge
(CYQL) and Medicine Hat (CYXH) and should reach the Hi-Line (KCTB
KHVR) around 07Z and central Montana (KGTF KLWT) between 10Z and
12Z. Behind the front, winds will become gusty (up to 30 kt) out of
the north with MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/snow following an hour or
two behind the front. The rain/snow mix with MVFR conditions reach
into the KHLN area, but only light showers with possible mountain
obscuration will reach KBZN. Conditions will improve from north to
south between 17Z and 22Z with VFR conditions and lighter northwest
winds prevailing most areas after 22Z.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  29  59  44 /  90   0   0   0
CTB  43  28  59  42 /  90   0   0   0
HLN  51  30  61  41 /  60  10   0   0
BZN  52  26  57  36 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  49  20  52  24 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  57  28  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  48  25  57  38 /  40   0   0   0
LWT  43  27  57  40 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

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