Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 262340
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure aloft is building over
Central and Southwest Montana and dry and stable conditions will
continue through Sunday. A low pressure trof to the west will
approach the region tonight and winds aloft ahead of this system
will strengthen during the night. Breezy conditions will be
strongest along the slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains
Saturday although afternoon mixing will bring gusty conditions to
the eastern plains as well. Precipitation associated with this
trof will remain well north of the Canadian border. A cold front
associated with the low pressure trof will push across northern
portions of the region Sunday and temperatures will drop back to
near or slightly above seasonal normals across northern portions
of the CWA. Southwest Montana will remain warmer with
temperatures above seasonal normals.
Zelzer

Sunday Night through Friday...Fairly quiet start expected for
next week as weather pattern shifts from zonal/westerly flow on
Mon to more southwesterly by midweek. The directional shift looks
to be due in large part to a moderately strong upper-level trof
forecast to develop along the Canadian/PacNW coast and remain
along the coast until at least Thurs night. A few embedded
shortwaves will move through the flow and combine with a mix of
Pacific and monsoonal moisture to give our region a chance of
isolated thunderstorms each aftn from Tues through Fri. By Fri,
models solutions differ quite a bit, with the ECMWF bringing the
main trof onshore and moving it to the Idaho Panhandle/NW Montana
by late Fri night. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the trof axis and
central circulation along/offshore until Sat morning. As a result,
the ECMWF brings in a broader area of showers and thunderstorms
for central/southwest MT on Fri aftn/eve than seen in the GFS.
Thanks to the warm southwest flow, high temperatures will remain
close to seasonal values, reaching the low- to mid 80s each day
next week. Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Northwest flow aloft will continue. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms, mainly east of a KHVR to KGTF to KBZN line, will end
by 05z. Southwest winds will increase and become gusty after 17z.
Strongest winds will be along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains. VFR conditions prevail. Gusty erratic winds near
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  84  57  81 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  52  79  51  73 /  10   0  10   0
HLN  50  84  57  85 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  44  84  48  85 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  40  71  40  74 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  43  80  48  83 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  51  86  56  79 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  48  81  54  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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