Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 270553
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Upper level disturbance in westerly flow aloft is progressing east
from central into eastern MT this evening with thunderstorms
diminishing in coverage and intensity across all of the forecast
area. Still some lingering shortwave energy to track east along
the US/Canadian border tonight which may keep a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms going along and north of Hwy 2 later
tonight. Have updated PoP/Weather through the rest of tonight to
reflect these trends. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape.
Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2315Z.

Isolated showers linger across North-central MT tonight amid an
overall clearing trend. Expect little if any impact at area
terminals as VFR conditions prevail.  Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop once again Wednesday
afternoon. These thunderstorms could produce strong gusty winds and
brief MVFR in heavy rain. Confidence remains low regarding timing
and specific thunderstorm impacts at area terminals. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
Tonight through Thursday...An upper level disturbance continues to
push eastward through the region. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
continue to develop along this disturbance. The main threat from
the storms this evening will be brief heavy rain and lightning
strikes. Expect fairly similar conditions over the region on
Wednesday...with mostly quiet conditions in the morning followed
by scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.
On Thursday, the flow aloft will shift slightly to the northwest
as the upper level ridge tries to rebuild over the Pacific
Northwest. On Thursday, expected thunderstorms to be more
isolated, as a weaker upper level disturbance moves through, with the
storms mainly affecting the eastern portions of the region.
Afternoon temperatures will generally be near normal Wed/Thu with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Brusda

Thursday Night through Tuesday...The last in a series of shortwave
disturbances exits to the east Thursday night. Temperatures trend
back into the lower 90s Friday and Saturday amid a generally stable
westerly flow. However, isolated weak afternoon thundershowers may
be possible during this period over our northeast zones associated
with a weak baroclinic zone. A stronger weather system moves across
the Canadian Rockies Saturday night into Sunday, forcing a southwest
flow aloft over the region. This will help to draw monsoonal
moisture into southwest Montana, with enhanced chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Temperatures trend a
few degrees cooler to start next week with lower heights over the
northwest and isolated to scattered showers. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  86  56  84 /  50  20  30  20
CTB  53  81  53  80 /  50  30  40  20
HLN  59  90  60  89 /  40  20  20  10
BZN  53  88  53  87 /  20  10  20  10
WEY  45  80  45  78 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  52  88  53  87 /  70  10  20  10
HVR  60  85  58  84 /  90  40  40  20
LWT  58  82  57  81 /  70  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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