Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 141721
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1120 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Today...High pressure will build aloft today and keep the air mass
dry and stable. A low pressure shortwave will approach the West
Coast this afternoon and winds aloft will strengthen across the
Rockies ahead of this feature. This will bring brisk winds across
the lee slopes of the Rockies and adjacent plains. Current forecast
on track...updates not planned. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear through around 03Z, while breezy and gusty westerly
winds spread across the area through 00Z. Winds will decrease
somewhat after 00Z, but an approaching disturbance will bring
increasing mid/high level cloudiness with gradually lowering
ceilings after 03Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing an increasing chance of mountain obscuring showers.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014/
Today through Wednesday...High pressure aloft will build across
the area today providing dry and stable conditions. The upper
ridge will begin to break down tonight as westerly flow aloft
increases preceding an upper trof that moves into the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. West winds will increase and become gusty
and precipitation will develop over the western mountains early
Tuesday. Precipitation will then spread east over the plains
during the afternoon as the Pacific front pushes through. As the
surface low tracks across southeast Montana late Tuesday
afternoon, cold Canadian air will be drawn down across the area as
winds shift to the north Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
likely occur along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the Little
Belt mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Lincoln as well as Marias and Rogers Pass for 3 to 5 inches.
Likewise, a winter weather advisory has also been issued for Kings
Hill Pass. Generally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is expected over the
plains. Roads will likely become icy by Tuesday night as
temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures will be near to above
seasonal averages today and Tuesday with readings dropping to 20
degrees below seasonal averages by Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For Thursday
and Friday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low. Expect temperatures to remain cool on
Thursday...but start to warm back up towards seasonal normals for
Friday. Then for Saturday and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have
the best handle on the forecast solution for next weekend. Thus
mostly dry and Spring like temperatures can be expected over the
region. Afternoon highs by Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees
above normal for many lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect
a transition to more wetter conditions to develop by late
afternoon...as the weekend upper level ridge breaks down and a
Pacific cold front moves into the region. Temperatures will still be
mild in the eastern portions...but with clouds and precip expected
over the Rocky Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly
cooler temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  53  27 /   0   0  50  70
CTB  57  35  50  26 /   0   0  50  70
HLN  60  37  55  33 /   0  10  40  60
BZN  58  30  55  29 /   0   0  50  50
WEY  46  22  46  22 /   0   0  40  40
DLN  57  32  54  30 /   0   0  30  30
HVR  59  32  58  27 /   0   0  30  50
LWT  53  31  53  24 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$


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