Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 191124
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
524 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Update to Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...the highly anticipated cold front has
pushed through most of the CWA this morning...with a few showers
still lingering from about Bozeman to Lewistown and southeastward.
A few showers may also be lingering in the Rocky Mountain Front as
2-4 satellite imagery hinting at a few lower clouds there. These
showers could even produce a few isolated snow showers this
morning...however...mainly at the highest peaks above 8000 feet.
As the mentioned cold front continues its southward push...showers
will continue to diminish from northwest to southeast. With some
moisture streaming in behind the front in nw flow...a few isolated
to widely scattered showers will be possible during the afternoon
hours across the eastern portions of the cwa. With dry air in the
lower levels and limited instability...chances for these showers
are low...and lingering low to mid level clouds are the likely
outcome with this moisture. A shortwave ridge then pushes into the
region this evening into Saturday morning...bringing with it
clearing skies and much drier air. NW flow will return behind this
feature for Saturday. Mid level moisture again streams into the
area for Saturday afternoon and evening. With dry air in the lower
levels and little instability...this moisture will probably again
just create some mid level clouds...with mainly dry conditions
expected to continue. NW flow breaks down Saturday night and dry
westerly flow returns with a flat ridge for Sunday. Very dry air
again will return by Sunday afternoon...with RH values in the
teens expected. This combined with increased westerly flow could
bring some elevated fire danger. Cool post frontal air will keep
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s today. Warming trend
then begins Saturday with highs in the 80s...and the dry and warm
westerly flow on Sunday could return highs into the low 90s.
Anglin

Sunday night through Friday...Dry and warm conditions prevail
through Monday afternoon due to shortwave ridging over the northern
Rocky Mountains. Latest medium range model runs are now bringing a
surface cold front into the state Monday night. Biggest impact of
this front could be an increase in fire weather concerns Monday
afternoon and evening as dry and windy conditions prevail across the
region. Cooler temperatures but continued dry conditions are
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with both models in good agreement
that surface, mid-level and upper-level closed lows will remain
north of the Canadian border. Upper level low moves east and
broadens into an upper trough with north/northwest flow aloft
prevailing over Montana for Thursday and Friday. Models hint at
light precipitation amounts late in the week so have trended PoPs
back toward climatology for this time period. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1124Z

Upper level wave currently over the region will continue to move
southeast with skies clearing from northwest to southeast through
the day. VFR conditions will prevail across north central Montana
through the period. However, clouds over the southern half of the
forecast area will continue to produce mountain obscurations and
areas MVFR through about 18Z before clearing out. Winds are expected
to remain generally light and somewhat variable. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  45  81  52 /  10   0   0  10
CTB  70  46  80  50 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  70  46  82  53 /  30   0   0   0
BZN  69  40  80  46 /  50  10  10   0
WEY  65  31  72  38 /  20   0  10   0
DLN  69  41  80  46 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  70  47  81  53 /  30  10  10  10
LWT  64  45  77  51 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.