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000
FXUS65 KTFX 270938
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...An upper level ridge over the Four Corners
region will build into the Northern Rocky Mountains today for
increasing temperatures across the forecast area. This feature
remains in place over the western US through the entire short
term period. As a result, temperatures will remain above seasonal
averages and winds are expected to be generally light. However,
complications in the forecast arise as mid and high level
monsoonal moisture rides northward along the leading edge of this
ridge. For today, only thin high clouds are expected over
Southwest Montana. On Monday, an upper level disturbance will move
from the Great Basin into Western Montana allowing isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop over the western and southwest
mountains. Isolated convection may also move into the Central
Montana plains during the evening. Main impacts from any storms
that develop will be gusty winds and isolated/occasional lightning
strikes. The ridge axis is expected to move west of the forecast
area by Tuesday but isolated/scattered thunderstorms can be
expected once again over far Southwest Montana. mpj

Tuesday night through Saturday...A very summer like weather pattern
will reside over the region for the 2nd half of the work week. With
a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the Northern
Rockies...expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s at lower elevations across the region...with
overnight lows very seasonable...generally in the 50s. The chances
for precipitation still look to be quite low for much of the region
through the entire period. Some monsoonal moisture is expected to
move northward up into the region by midweek. However...the exact
timing and amount of moisture that is going to make it this far
north is still a bit uncertain. Thus isolated/low chance pops are
in place mainly for Southwest Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front
for later in the week. Additionally...the precipitable water does
not look overly high through Thursday...so any storms that do
develop before Friday will likely not be producing very significant
amounts of precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0426Z
High pressure over the area will continue to provide dry and stable
conditions. Skies will be clear and winds generally light. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  57  90  58 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  84  53  87  53 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  90  59  92  59 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  87  52  89  53 /   0   0  10  10
WEY  80  41  81  44 /   0   0  20  20
DLN  85  53  86  55 /   0   0  20  10
HVR  86  54  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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