Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 011051
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...The unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the next several days...with significant temperature
changes expected over the next few days...especially over North
Central MT. Temperatures are near 10 below in some areas this
morning over the north...and thus I have lowered daytime highs
today a bit...as the warm air will be slow to move in this
afternoon. There will be a few morning flurries in the Helena area
as they will be near the baroclinic zone. For this
afternoon...expect increasing chances for snow to
develop...especially over the Rocky Mountain Front. The precip
will gradually spread eastward overnight...and some freezing rain
could mix in late tonight...but mainly in the valleys of the
Southwest. For Monday...expect a few scattered rain/snow/freezing
rain showers...but most of the precipitation should be light. For
Monday night into Tuesday...the cold air will try to make another
surge southward...and again expect another round of light snow
over much of North Central MT. Snow amounts continue to look light
for Monday night thru Tuesday...generally in the 1 to 2 inch
range. Some freezing rain will possible...mainly south of Great
Falls. There is a small potential for high winds late tonight and
again early Tuesday morning over the Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...but confidence is low in wide speeds actually hitting high
wind criteria...so for now we will continue to monitor it closely.
Brusda

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are still in good agreement
that cold Canadian air will be over the state with a band of
precipitation remaining across southwest Montana Tuesday night. On
Wednesday, models attempt to build an upper level ridge over the
Pacific Northwest then progress this feature eastward over the
northern Rockies through the remainder of the week. Temperatures
warm back toward seasonal averages on Thursday with highs expected
to climb above average Friday and Saturday. However, the ECMWF has
thrown a curveball into the mix by indicating that a brief intrusion
of Canadian air will backdoor into my northeast zones on Friday. For
now I have kept with the persistent forecast of warmer temperatures
and westerly winds. Breezy to windy conditions will prevail over the
plains through the period and both models continue to indicate that
very strong winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front
beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0530Z.
Still seeing MVFR conditions with spotty areas of -SN over parts of
central MT as last remnants of moisture from the upper-level trof to
our east work their way out of the region.  Should continue to see
steady clearing from north-to-south overnight, which then sets up
possibility of fog at several terminals for early Sun morning.
Current TAFs (except KLWT) have predominantly IFR conditions
beginning 10-12Z, but confidence is only marginal on fog development
and visibilities, which may drop into LIFR category at some
airfields.  Any fog that does occur should dissipate by late morning
and expect VFR conditions with SCT-BKN clouds above 15000 ft through
late aftn.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  26  37  19 /  10  30  20  60
CTB  24  19  30  11 /  10  30  30  50
HLN  30  26  46  28 /  20  20  30  40
BZN  29  24  45  29 /  10  30  20  40
WEY  28  20  33  27 /  20  50  50  80
DLN  36  27  46  31 /  20  30  30  20
HVR  20  17  25  10 /   0  40  40  70
LWT  23  23  34  19 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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