Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 270337
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
937 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Only minor further updates this evening. Have continued to
decrease the chance for additional showers south of a Havre to
Helena line through the rest of this evening. However, one feature
of note is the area of mid clouds over Southern Alberta and
Southern Saskatchewan. Forecast models hint at the possibility
that the few showers that are up there now will move south over
North Central Montana overnight. Am not confident that the showers
will happen, as I think the continued loss of daytime heating will
help further stabilize the atmosphere, but I have increased cloud
cover overnight. These models are also indicating that a bit more
of an anticyclonic northwest flow aloft will move into the area on
Saturday, which may further limit shower/thunderstorm potential
across the area, even over the mountains. Will let midnight shift
analyze this further for the early morning forecast. The remainder
of the forecast appears to be in good shape.
Coulston

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry weather is expected for most areas through the upcoming
Memorial Day weekend. However, an isolated afternoon shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially in the mountains.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend, and into
the middle of next week. A better chance of showers and
thunderstorms may return by late next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2300Z.

VFR conditions will continue for at least the next 24 hours
across North Central and Southwest Montana. Lingering clouds,
scattered showers, and breezy northwest winds will likely
diminish by 03Z, with these calmer conditions continuing through
16Z. After 16Z, it will be a similar situation to today, as
daytime heating will increase mid level cloudiness and mix down
northwest winds, but shower activity will likely be limited to
the mountains.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 515 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017/

Quick update to the forecast for this afternoon/evening. Shower
coverage is a bit more than was previously forecast, especially
across North Central Montana. Most of these showers are fairly
low- topped and will likely not produce significant
precipitation, but brief showers will decrease across the area
from the northwest through around 9 pm. No other updates at this
time. Coulston

Tonight through Sunday...A high amplitude ridge over the interior
PacNW will drift slowly eastward through the weekend. The overall
forecast indicates dry and mild weather, but with isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly over higher terrain. A
weak disturbance moving through the northerly flow aloft on
Saturday is forecast to maintain mostly cloudy skies across North-
central MT, but with otherwise little impact on the Holiday
weekend weather. High temperatures will gradually warm through the
70s to near 80 by Sunday afternoon. Those spending time outdoors
this weekend are reminded to apply sun protection and to practice
safety when on or near water, as rivers are running strong and
cold. PN

Sunday Night through Friday...An upper level ridge of high
pressure will reside over much of the region from Sunday night
through Thursday. Expect a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
to move through the region from Sunday night through Wednesday
night. The best chance for any precipitation will be in the
mountains, but a passing shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out at lower elevations. Shower and thunderstorm potential may
increase Thursday and Friday, when disturbances may begin to
break-down the aforementioned ridge. A gradual warming trend to
much above normal temperatures is expected by Wednesday and
Thursday, while Friday may have slightly cooler readings.
Brusda/Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  71  46  75 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  43  72  44  73 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  43  71  47  78 /  20  10  10  10
BZN  38  67  40  74 /  20  10  10  10
WEY  29  55  30  65 /  30  10  10  20
DLN  37  66  40  73 /  20  10  10  10
HVR  45  75  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
LWT  40  67  43  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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