Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281732
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Update Aviation...
.UPDATE...

Today...Strong winds associated with the cold front now moving into
the plains are still expected later this morning and afternoon. The
high wind warning will be continued. Updated to raise most temps in
the central and northern zones, also freshened POPs and WX.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Main concern
continues to be the strong winds near the surface and clear air
turbulence aloft as a cold front move across the area today. Some
shower activity near mountains may create some obscurations and
sites located away from the Rock Mountain Front could see a brief
reduction in flight categories due to showers. By 06z most locations
should be under lighter winds as the system quickly moves off to the
east. After 12Z on the 29th, winds should pick up again along the
Rocky Mountain Front. Suk/db

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
Saturday through Monday...Main concern for the period will be the
strong gusty winds associated with a frontal passage Saturday
morning through Saturday evening. Have upgraded all high wind
watch locations to a high wind warning. Showers and cooler
temperatures are also expected to accompany the front
today...however widespread precipitation is not anticipated and
only a small temperature drop will occur Saturday compared with
the widespread record setting highs of Friday. Temperatures will
then continue to climb through the remainder of the long term
period as warm and dry conditions return under the influence of
the large scale ridge aloft rebuilding into the area...at least
temporarily. Suk

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  36  64  40 /  30  20   0   0
CTB  56  36  59  41 /  60  10   0   0
HLN  60  36  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  63  28  62  32 /  30  10   0   0
WEY  56  20  53  23 /  40  10   0   0
DLN  59  30  61  34 /  30   0  10  10
HVR  64  33  66  35 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  69  36  63  39 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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