Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 040353
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2015

.UPDATE...

Only minor adjustments to forecast tonight. Am continuing the
trend of winds decreasing from west to east across the plains of
north central Montana as surface high pressure continues to build
into the area. However, breezy and gusty northwest winds will
persist along and east of a Havre to Lewistown line until
midnight, then decrease. Temperatures are on track as well. Wind
chill temperatures will likely fall below -20 degrees F at times
overnight, but this should be limited to isolated ridge top
locations. A band of clouds is moving south over north central
Montana this evening, but it shouldn`t linger much past midnight,
and any minor threat of light snow showers will be limited to the
mountains. Otherwise, skies should remain mostly clear to partly
cloudy, allowing temperatures to mostly fall into the single
digits below zero. However, higher mountain valley locations and
ridge top areas will likely fall into the teens below zero.
Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
Generally dry northerly flow aloft will continue. Gusty surface
winds across northern Montana will decrease after 03z. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2015/

Tonight through Thursday...The main message for the period
continues to be generally dry with moderating temperatures. This
is a result of a strong upper ridge off the west coast Tuesday
afternoon which will gradually be moving east and weakening. For
tonight a weather disturbance aloft will move southeast through
western Montana and into central Montana by late tonight. Models
differ on the amount of moisture and stability but think there is
enough of a threat to have a slight chance of snow showers in the
mountains. One concern for tonight into Wednesday morning will be
wind chill temperatures in the east. Came up with a few locations
with readings of -20 or colder but felt area was not widespread
enough to issue an advisory. Evening shift will continue to
monitor the situation. A second concern will be the threat of
high winds over the Rocky Mountain Front Wednesday night and
Thursday. Surface pressure gradients become quite strong by late
Wednesday night but winds aloft are relatively weak. Confidence
at this time is in the low to moderate range so will not be
issuing any high wind watch with this forecast package. Even
though the lower elevations of the Rocky Mountain Front did not
receive much snow from the last storm did go ahead and mention
areas of blowing snow from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. With temperatures expected to rise above freezing
Thursday afternoon did not mention any blowing snow for that
period. Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Little, if any, significant
weather expected during this period as high pressure ridging will
dominate the weather pattern over the western states. Latest
forecast models still move a weak shortwave trof along the
northeast flank of the ridge into central/eastern MT between Fri
aftn and Sat morning. That will generate a slight chance for
scattered areas of light snow mainly over the southwest mtns and
eastern portions of the Hi-Line, but the majority of our region
will remain dry. A second weak trof will skirt central and
northeast MT on late Sat night but no precipitation is expected.
Models begin to flatten the west coast ridge Monday night through
Tuesday, with differences in details of passing shortwave
features through west-central Canada. Latest model data has bumped
temperatures into the low 50s for the weekend and mid 50s for
Mon/Tues with a few upper 50s possible in the southwest valleys.
Waranauskas/Nutter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -2  29  18  44 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  -5  29  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
HLN   5  34  18  47 /  10   0   0   0
BZN   3  30  12  44 /  10   0   0   0
WEY -12  28   1  34 /   0   0   0   0
DLN   4  35  14  47 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  -6  24  11  45 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  -5  23  14  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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