Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 201125
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 AM MDT Mon Oct 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...The forecast area is now situated on the
back side of the upper ridge whose axis has now shifted to the
Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft will continue today but it will be
dry due to a dearth of available moisture. By tonight, an upper
trof will move to the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase in
moisture and instability to the Rocky Mountain Front and southwest
Montana resulting in scattered showers. The models bring the trof
axis to the Continental Divide on Tuesday with rain showers
becoming more widespread as they move east across the plains. Snow
levels will drop to near 6500 feet Tuesday over portions of
southwest Montana resulting in light accumulating snow in the
mountains. An associated cold front will move across the area
Tuesday bringing cooler air in its wake. With a tightening
pressure gradient Tuesday night and Wednesday, surface winds will
become gusty at times, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front.
At this time, it appears wind speeds will remain below warning
criteria. The upper trof will move rapidly across the area
Wednesday, and by afternoon, upper ridging will return over
western Montana. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above
seasonal averages today but will drop back to near seasonal
averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday...Overall, westerly Pacific flow will
dominate during the forecast period. This pattern will keep high
chances for rain and snow showers in the higher terrain along the
Rocky Mountain Front and Continental Divide. Breezy westerly
downslope winds will limit precipitation chances over the plains and
valleys. Long-range forecast models continue to hint at a stronger
trough of low pressure by the weekend, which could bring better
chances for precipitation, especially across southwest Montana.
Downslope conditions will continue to keep low precip chances and
breezy conditions over the north-central plains. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the forecast
period. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1125Z.
High pressure aloft will continue as will dry and stable conditions.
Winds over the plains will be light but will be breezy at times
along the Rocky Mountain Front. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  47  62  40 /   0  10  40  30
CTB  77  43  57  38 /   0  10  40  20
HLN  72  45  60  40 /   0  10  50  30
BZN  70  40  64  32 /   0  10  40  40
WEY  60  31  52  24 /   0  10  50  50
DLN  71  43  60  33 /   0  20  60  40
HVR  74  41  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  75  47  70  41 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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