Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241614
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
914 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Overall the forecast remains on track. Areas of morning fog should
begin to diminish...and end by noon. Meanwhile...a few scattered
light snow showers are occurring across central and southern
portions. The snow in the central may linger into the
afternoon...but cause little impacts. The snow in the south will
be possible through the day...and possibly tonight into Saturday.
Some light to moderate accumulations are possible...with perhaps a
few impacts to area roads. Confidence still remains only moderate
widespread impacts will be seen. For now will keep with no
advisories and issue SPS for any problem areas that arise. Anglin

&&


.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

Widespread VFR/MVFR cigs with embedded light snow flurries persist
this morning across much of central and southwest MT. The exception
is at KCTB where dense freezing fog has settled onto the terminal
area. Fog should lift after sunrise, but areas of VFR/MVFR cigs will
persist into afternoon. Snow showers are expected to develop again
this afternoon mainly along a line from near KLWT to KBZN/KEKS.
Clouds finally begin to thin overnight into early Saturday. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Today through Sunday...In short, temperatures remain a few
degrees below average through the weekend, while scattered snow
showers will develop at times across North-central and Southwest
MT. At large scales, a broad and nearly stationary longwave trough
persists across the western U.S.. A weak anticyclonic flow aloft
over eastern Montana splits the trough and inhibits the movement
of a remnant low stuck in this pattern. Cloud cover will persist
over the area today with scattered light snow flurries continuing
at times over southwest Montana associated with low level
convergence in a surface trough over southeast ID. This activity
has been dissipating overnight, but another round of snow shower
activity is expected to perk up this afternoon over southwest MT.
Snow accumulations should remain rather light, but will continue
to monitor for possible travel hazards through the day. The split
flow aloft finally collapses later tonight into Saturday as the
next upstream shortwave pushes across the state. Surface winds
turn westerly and downslope on Saturday night with pressure falls
over southern Alberta. A new round of moderate snowfall spreads
into the Northern Rockies from Canada on Sunday, possibly
producing light snow across N-central MT by late Sunday. PN

Sunday night through Friday...Medium range models are in fair
agreement on the overall large scale pattern this period, beginning
with an upper level trough over the western US early next week,
followed by a fast progression of shortwaves ejecting out of digging
trough in the Gulf of AK and moving swiftly east along the
US/Canadian border during the middle to latter parts of next week.
Temperatures remain below seasonal averages to start next week then
moderate back to seasonal averages later next week. Series of fast
moving shortwaves will send several clipper type lows along the US
Canadian border mid to late next week, with models still having some
difficulty with timing and strength of these features at this time
range. Potential for strong winds with the passage of these
features, particularly on Wed and Thurs of next week. Temperatures
could also fluctuate significantly across northern zones as warming
occurs under periods of strong winds with cold air briefly being
dragged south from ALberta behind the passage of these clipper
systems. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  14  29  18 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  24   9  26  15 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  29  11  27  14 /  20  20  10  10
BZN  25  12  26  10 /  60  30  30  10
WEY  20   4  17   0 /  60  40  50  30
DLN  23  10  23   9 /  50  40  20  10
HVR  30  16  28  17 /  20  20  20  10
LWT  28  14  27  15 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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