Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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179
FXUS65 KTFX 302103
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
303 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Cold front has now slowed and is
currently just north of Helena. As this front stalls across the
Rocky Mountain Front...and the upper level low pushes across NE
MT late this afternoon through this evening...showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to fill back into the region...still
mainly north and east of a line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs to Lewistown. Gusty northwest winds will also be possible
with the passage of this system through tonight and into Tuesday.
In addition...a few very isolated showers and thunderstorms are
also possible in the Bozeman area through this evening. By Tuesday
morning the upper low pushes into ND...with wrap around moisture
lingering into eastern portions of the CWA and producing areas of
scattered showers. For western and southwestern portions of the
CWA...high pressure begins to build across the region...bringing
clearing skies and warming conditions. All precipitation should
exit the eastern CWA by Tuesday evening. Ridge of high pressure
will build back across the region for Wednesday. This will return
dry conditions...and warmer ...with near to slightly above normal
readings. Anglin


Wednesday night through Monday...The period begins with a
brisk westerly flow aloft. Ensemble solutions reveal a bit of spread
amid this pattern as shortwave energy crosses southwest Canada.
Isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out, mainly over higher
terrain. Breezy west winds are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon and evening as a surface trough moves away to the east. By
Friday the ensemble solutions tighten up as a broad and nearly
stationary ridge strengthens over the western United States. This
ridge will maintain well above average temperatures through Monday.
Ensemble solutions finally begin to diverge late in the period as a
trough moves into northern California, creating a slight chance for
showers over southwest Montana early next week. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
An area of low pressure over southern Saskatchewan will continue to
move slowly ESE along the US/Canadian border over the next 24 hrs.
At the same time, the low will drag a cold front across central and
SW MT through tomorrow. Showers and a few TSRA accompanying the
front will mainly impact north-central Montana TAF sites while
KHLN/KBZN will likely remain mostly dry. Of note, though, due to the
limited instability expected, the confidence of TSRA at any TAF site
is very low. Drier air aloft will work in later today with shower
activity diminishing from NW to SE by tonight. However, wraparound
moisture will keep low clouds and SHRA going from KHVR to KLWT
through Tuesday morning, and possibly as far west as KGTF. MVFR CIGS
and occasional mtn obscuration will be the most predominate in
the vicinity of KGTF/KHVR/KLWT through Tuesday morning, with
predominantly VFR conditions expected elsewhere. In addition, a
gusty NW developing at KHVR/KLWT will continue on into Tuesday
morning as strong low to mid level winds mix down to the SFC on
the backside of the low. Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  62  42  76 /  50  20   0   0
CTB  38  62  40  74 /  30  10   0   0
HLN  42  66  44  80 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  36  64  38  77 /  10  20   0   0
WEY  32  57  34  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  37  66  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  45  62  42  74 /  60  40  10   0
LWT  41  58  40  72 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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