Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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863
FXUS65 KTFX 101740
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING BROAD SWATH OF
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MONIDA PASS TO THE HILINE. CLOUD COVERAGE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS WERE INDICATING SO PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DRIER AIR
OVER WESTERN MT THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTN, RESULTING IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR US AT THAT TIME. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN ANY TAF
SITE SEEING ANY PRECIP AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT ANY PREVAILING OR
TEMPO WEATHER GROUPS FOR NOW. LIGHTER WINDS AT THIS TIME ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES BY TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SE. MARTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 451 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
N AMERICA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMANATING FROM A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND THESE FEATURES WILL MAINLY BRING PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD- COVER TO THE REGION AS THEY PASS OVER THE
RIDGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES GRADUALLY DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWERING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT COOLING EFFECT ON DAILY TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE A FEW
RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AGAIN TODAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA INTO ND MAY ALLOW A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS TO BACKDOOR
INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD
STILL LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HILL/BLAINE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. HOENISCH

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION HAPPENS TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH. THUS IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH...AND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ON
MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  41  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  61  38  54  31 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  48  32  49  32 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  43  22  42  27 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  35   5  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  26  44  30 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  31  50  27 /   0  10  10  10
LWT  55  34  49  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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