Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 262043
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
243 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE TROF WILL CROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO MONDAY AND THE POSITION
WILL CREATE GOOD LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MID LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PASS OVER HAVRE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD RECEIVE THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN OUR CWA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE ZONES TUESDAY AND FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME QUITE TIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES, AND BRISK, GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BE
25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. ZELZER

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST.
500MB HEIGHTS RISE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND USHERS IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HI-LINE BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA ARE UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT
AND  WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BUT THE CHANCE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  54  51  71 /  80  90  70  30
CTB  50  61  50  72 /  60  80  80  20
HLN  54  56  47  73 /  70  90  60  20
BZN  54  60  47  72 /  30  80  60  20
WEY  43  58  32  64 /  30  40  40  20
DLN  52  59  40  70 /  60  90  60  20
HVR  57  61  52  71 /  80 100 100  60
LWT  55  61  49  68 /  50  80  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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