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000
FXUS65 KTFX 231139
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Friday...The next two days of the week will have
some very active weather in store for Central Montana especially
the high plains of Central Montana and the Rocky Mountain Front. A
closed low currently off the coast of Washington will quickly move
across the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours and be the
major source for weather impact our region.
A shortwave trough ahead of the low is currently moving across
Idaho and will bring showers and thunderstorms to our area
starting this morning. Another round of thunderstorms should be
able to develop this afternoon as a second shortwave moves into
the region. Model solutions for the pre-sto rm environment are not
as aligned as one might hope for. GFS is currently one of the
drier solutions...with only limited convective potential for
storms. However most other solutions including the NAM and ECMWF
show a strong potential for possibly severe storms to occur from
the mid morning hours through to the late evening hours. Storm
shear looks like it should allow for the easy organization of
supercells. A decent cap does exist at the mid levels and could
inhibit some storm growth, if storms are able to punch through or
erode this inversion the amount CAPE that becomes available
should allow for some very powerful storms capable of producing
some very large hail due to the steep lapse rate through the hail
growth zone.

The closed low will track into the area Thursday morning and will
create a strong pressure gradient similar to a fall or spring
storm pattern. This gradient will cause winds to become breezy
throughout the area with strong potentially damaging over Glacier
county including Glacier National Park, Cut Bank, and exiting out
towards the Sweet Grass Hills of Toole county. These winds are
expected to last throughout the day Thursday before winding down
Friday as the low pressure system exits the area. A high wind
warning has been issued due to these conditions. Another set of
concerns with the winds will be the dry and warm environment
before the cold frontal passage across Central Montana. Dewpoints
are going to be near critical fire weather levels. A fire weather
watch is in effect from noon Thursday through Friday.

Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area
in the wake of the low pressure system and drying the system out.
Temperatures should be above seasonal averages ahead of the low
pressure system. Thursday night temperatures should drop
dramatically behind the cold front, and slowly warming back toward
seasonal averages. Suk

Friday night through Tuesday...Models are still on the same page in
developing a strong upper ridge over the western U.S. over the
weekend which will continue into early next week. Expect dry
conditions through the weekend. By Monday models forecast some
monsoonal moisture over the area as a weak weather disturbance moves
through the strong upper ridge. Models disagree on details with the
the weather disturbance and associated spotty precipitation. Will go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms over southwest Montana
Monday through Tuesday. Models have spotty precipitation farther
north but due to differences with the timing and placement of the
precipitation will hold for now in mentioning any isolated showers
or thunderstorms over central and northern Montana. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
One weather disturbance will move northeast through the area this
morning bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More
showers and thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon over
the northern portions of southwest Montana and also central Montana.
The showers and thunderstorms will then spread into northcentral
Montana by early evening. A few of the thunderstorms will be severe
with hail near or above 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds near 60
mph and IFR conditions in heavy rain. Overnight skies will clear
from the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday and Thursday both days of concern for fire weather
conditions.  Wednesday will bring a chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms over southwest into central Montana, with showers and
thunderstorms likely over central and north-central Montana. At this
time expect very warm temperatures and relative humidity dropping to
the 15 to 25 percent southwest...25 to 35 percent central and
north-central. Wind, however, expected to be relatively light and
chance of wetting rain is generally less than 40 percent. With
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, could see some lightning
starts. Things become more active Thursday with a seasonally strong
cold front pushing across the area. Warm temperatures ahead of the
front will combine with relative humidity dropping to 15 to 25
percent and sustained winds 20 to 30 mph. These conditions coupled
with recent lack of precipitation enough to prompt the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch for Fire Zone 115 in its entirety and Fire Zone
113 for the southern third of Blaine County from noon until midnight
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions in Fire Zone 117 marginal
at this time, and will re-evaluate with later model runs.
Loss

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  61  75  51 /  80  70  10  10
CTB  86  54  69  50 /  70  80  20  10
HLN  92  60  78  52 /  80  40  10  10
BZN  91  55  81  43 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  82  45  75  32 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  87  53  76  44 /  50  30  10  10
HVR  94  59  79  51 /  40  70  20  10
LWT  92  60  80  48 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Fergus.

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 AM Thursday to Midnight MDT Thursday
Night Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

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