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000
FXUS65 KTFX 071037
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...Very cold this morning...expect light snow
in SW MT today...but snow accumulations should be less than one to
two inches. Expect another upper level disturbance to move
southward through the region on Sunday. Light snow expected over
the northern 2/3 thirds of the CWA...generally less than 1/2 inch
at lower elevations and 1 to 2 inches in the mountains.
Temperatures will remain cold today...and turn slightly warmer on
Sunday. Brusda

Sunday Night through Friday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement and are consistent with the trend of warming temperatures
next week. Upper level trough currently over the region moves
eastward Sunday night and Monday. This puts Montana in an unsettled
northwest flow aloft through the end of the period. Model solutions
diverge later in the week as shortwave energy timing and location
varies between the two models, but the large scale pattern is
consistent. Overall pattern continues to look favorable for an
increasing temperature trend through Thursday. The unsettled flow
and occasional shortwave energy remains favorable for slight chance
to low chance pops across the forecast area but there still does not
appear to be any likelihood for a large scale storm system through
Thursday. However, by Friday models suggest that a backdoor cold
front will push back into North Central Montana with an increasing
chance of light snow across the forecast area with temperatures
dropping once again. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED. 0454Z
The air mass will generally remain dry and cold through the
period. However, a broad low pressure shortwave will move through
the flow aloft and deepen across Nevada and Utah. This will bring
increased moisture and an increasing chance of snow across mainly
Southwest Montana by late Saturday. Local MVFR conditions are
possible Saturday over Southwest Montana but VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -8 -15   8  -4 /   0   0  50  10
CTB  -8 -19   6  -7 /   0  10  60  10
HLN  -1 -16   4  -6 /  20   0  60  10
BZN  -2 -17   3 -10 /  60   0  30  20
WEY   6 -20   3 -21 /  80  20  30  20
DLN   1 -14   3 -11 /  80   0  30  10
HVR -13 -24   5  -8 /   0  10  60  10
LWT  -5 -18   7  -4 /  10   0  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Beaverhead...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Fergus...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Madison.

WIND CHILL WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Blaine...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Hill...Liberty...Toole.

&&

$$


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