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000
FXUS65 KTFX 032132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
232 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...The main message for the period continues
to be generally dry with moderating temperatures. This is a result
of a strong upper ridge off the west coast Tuesday afternoon which
will gradually be moving east and weakening. For tonight a weather
disturbance aloft will move southeast through western Montana and
into central Montana by late tonight. Models differ on the amount of
moisture and stability but think there is enough of a threat to have
a slight chance of snow showers in the mountains. One concern for
tonight into Wednesday morning will be wind chill temperatures in
the east. Came up with a few locations with readings of -20 or
colder but felt area was not widespread enough to issue an advisory.
Evening shift will continue to monitor the situation. A second
concern will be the threat of high winds over the Rocky Mountain
Front Wednesday night and Thursday. Surface pressure gradients
become quite strong by late Wednesday night but winds aloft are
relatively weak. Confidence at this time is in the low to moderate
range so will not be issuing any high wind watch with this forecast
package. Even though the lower elevations of the Rocky Mountain
Front did not receive much snow from the last storm did go ahead and
mention areas of blowing snow from late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. With temperatures expected to rise above freezing
Thursday afternoon did not mention any blowing snow for that period.
Blank

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Little, if any, significant weather
expected during this period as high pressure ridging will dominate
the weather pattern over the western states.  Latest forecast models
still move a weak shortwave trof along the northeast flank of the
ridge into central/eastern MT between Fri aftn and Sat morning. That
will generate a slight chance for scattered areas of light snow
mainly over the southwest mtns and eastern portions of the Hiline,
but the majority of our region will remain dry. A second weak trof
will skirt central and northeast MT on late Sat night but no
precipitation is expected. Models begin to flatten the west coast
ridge Monday night through Tuesday, with differences in details of
passing shortwave features through west-central Canada. Latest
model data has bumped temperatures into the low 50s for the
weekend and mid 50s for Mon/Tues with a few upper 50s possible in
the southwest valleys. Waranauskas/Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1748Z.
Expect VFR conditions. In the north skies will be mostly clear
before a band of bkn-ovc clouds in the range of 10000 to 12000 ft MSL
slides southeast over the east slopes between 07z and 13z. Over
southwest Montana expect sct-bkn clouds in the range of 8000 to
10000 ft MSL before skies become mostly clear later Wednesday
morning. Gusty northwest winds 15 to 25 kts near and east of a line
from KHVR to KLWT will diminish overnight. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  -2  29  18  44 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  -5  29  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
HLN   5  34  18  47 /  10   0   0   0
BZN   3  30  12  44 /  10   0   0   0
WEY -12  28   1  34 /   0  10   0   0
DLN   4  35  14  47 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  -6  24  11  45 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  -5  23  14  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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