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000
FXUS65 KTFX 272103
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
303 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front dropping south out of Canada will keep scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across much of the area through
early this evening. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds
and hail. Unsettled weather may linger into Wednesday before drier
air moves in late in the week. Temperatures will cool some through
Thursday, then increase once again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Thursday...Radar and satellite imagery
continues to light up with showers and thunderstorms across the
southern third of our CWA at this time. This activity is associated
with a s/w swinging through the area at this time. The atmosphere
remains weakly/moderately unstable, but shear continues to be
somewhat weaker and it still looks like the overall severe threat
today will be tampered by a lack of better shear. Still, the
strongest cores through this evening could produce gusty winds and
hail. A brief shot of drier air moves in tonight with a gradual
decreasing trend in showers/storms.

On Wednesday/Thursday, an upper low over central Alberta will
finally pivot SE and push into the NRN Plains. This will send
another strong cold front through the area as the upper level flow
turns NW. The front will move through Wednesday evening/night.
Lingering moisture in the NW flow will keep at least isolated
showers and t-storms going into Wednesday night, possibly
lingering into Thursday. Although, in general, the coverage should
begin to decrease by Thursday. In the wake of the front,
temperatures will fall back close to or below normal by Thursday.
MARTIN

Thursday night through Monday night...The upper level pattern
will remain very progressive in nature, with no one single trough
or ridge remaining in place for more than 24 to 36 hours at a
time. High temperatures will warm each consecutive day through
Monday, with readings generally rising above climatological norms
by the weekend, and well above normal highs for the day on Monday.
While sporadic chances for showers/thunderstorms will be possible
through the first half of the long term (through Saturday
evening), precipitation amounts look to be very light (with the
exception of those areas that see a thunderstorm, which could
produce some marginal QPF amounts). The biggest concern in the
long term (at this time) will be the day on Monday, as upper level
ridging breaks down, dry/breezy downsloping winds develop, and
high temperatures climb into the 80s to low 90s. The combination
of unseasonably warm temperature, low minimum RHs, breezy
west/southwest winds, and the ongoing curing of fuels...will
create at least some elevated fire weather concerns (at this time)
for the day and into the evening hours on Monday (especially
across North Central Montana). Given that Monday will be the eve
of Independence Day, felt it was prudent to mention my concerns
for fire weather conditions, despite it being at the end of the
long term period. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1730Z.
Moist and unstable westerly flow will keep isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the area today as an upper-level low
moves across Alberta/Saskatchewan today. Some storms may produce
gusty winds 30 to 40 mph. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible in and near showers and thunderstorms with mountain
obscurations expected as well. Surface winds will become westerly
and remain breezy through this evening then taper overnight. A few
showers may linger over southwest Montana into tomorrow. MLS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  77  49  70 /  30  20  40  30
CTB  48  75  48  69 /  20  30  30  20
HLN  54  79  51  75 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  48  73  45  72 /  40  30  20  20
WEY  37  64  37  65 /  50  80  40  10
DLN  48  72  44  71 /  40  40  20  10
HVR  50  81  52  72 /  10  20  20  30
LWT  49  75  47  68 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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