Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260441
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Area remains between upper low over the Great
Basin and an upper trof over central Canada. The airmass has dried
out and skies should remain generally cloud free overnight. The
exception being extreme southwest Montana where monsoonal moisture
is being drawn north and isolated showers are still possible through
midnight. Have lowered PoPs across the southwest to generally
scattered through midnight. Temperatures look good.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0440Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will
increase Tuesday Afternoon at KCTB again and should remain light at
all other TAF sites. Suk

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 247 PM MDT Mon Aug 25 2014

Tonight through Wednesday...Most of the forecast area lies
beneath an area of weak flow aloft between upper level lows over
the Great Basin and central Canada with an upper level ridge
building onto the West Coast. The airmass has largely dried out
above the lowest levels and skies will clear after sunset.
Exception will be SW MT where moisture associated with the Great
basin low will spread north with scattered showers and possibly an
isolated evening thunderstorm near the ID/WY border. Little change
in the overall weather pattern occurs through Tuesday with
dry, sunny and stable conditions over central and north central MT
and more cloud-cover and a chance for showers/isolated
thunderstorms across SW MT. The ridge off the west coast moves
inland Wednesday for additional warming and drying across the
entire forecast area. Hoenisch

Wednesday night through Monday...A disturbance will move across
British Columbia and Alberta and keep Central Montana under the
influence of a rather flat ridge Wednesday night and Thursday. The
air mass will warm and little effect should come from the
disturbance aloft. Heights aloft will build Thursday night as the
disturbance moves east and an upper level ridge will be over the
Rockies by Friday. This ridge will move east of the zones by
Saturday and allow moisture to move across into the zones. A low
pressure trof will approach the West Coast and, with heights falling
aloft and the increased moisture, the air mass will become a bit
unstable. The trof will move over the Pacific Northwest Saturday
night and keep the air mass over Central Montana unsettled. This
trof will also develop a low pressure low over Alberta and
Saskatchewan, thus tightening the surface pressure gradient across
the Rockies and adjacent plains. Some breezy conditions will
develop. The trof will remain over the region through Monday night
and keep unsettled conditions and a chance of precipitation in the
forecast. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  77  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  44  78  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  79  53  85 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  42  75  47  81 /  10  10   0   0
WEY  36  67  38  71 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  45  74  48  79 /  20  10  10   0
HVR  43  77  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  44  74  52  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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