Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241610
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND
QPF GRIDS THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES TO
PROVIDE A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES AT LEWISTOWN AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY AND IS REFLECTED IN HIGHER POPS. SPC PLACES THE AREA UNDER A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK AND HRRR ANALYSIS INDICATES ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST SLOPES UNTIL 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST VALLEYS ALSO UNTIL 15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED ALONG THE U.S. ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAINTAINING A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...BUT IR SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST AND CALM ENVIRONMENT. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING ALL BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO THOSE
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. NUTTER

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF UNSETTLED.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FINALLY BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
LIKELY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AND SPEAKING OF
HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
READING IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  44  70  48 /  20  10  10  30
CTB  67  40  70  46 /  20   0  10  30
HLN  65  45  72  50 /  20  20  20  40
BZN  59  40  67  44 /  60  30  20  30
WEY  56  33  60  37 /  30  20  40  50
DLN  61  40  68  44 /  30  20  30  50
HVR  72  43  75  47 /  20  10  10  20
LWT  61  44  67  46 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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