Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 142056
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
256 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge will be over
central Montana tonight while, to the west, a low pressure shortwave
will move over the West Coast. Winds have been strengthening ahead
of this shortwave and surface winds across the Rockies and adjacent
plains should become breezy by morning. This shortwave will move
over the Pacific Northwest tonight and heights aloft will be falling
over the Rockies by early Tuesday morning. The cold front associated
with this shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies early Tuesday
and move through the southwest zones by late afternoon. Max
temperatures for Tuesday will generally occur before frontal
passage, and eastern and southern zones will see the higher max
temps. Showery precipitation will accompany the cold front although
in general amounts will not be large. A second shortwave will
approach the zones from Canada and the associated cold front will
push moist air into the Hiline around midnight Tuesday night. With
an air mass already made moist by the earlier system, this will
develop into a period of nearly saturated upslope flow lasting into
mid-day Wednesday. Models differ in amounts and locations of
heaviest precip, however widespread snow is expected. The current
winter weather advisories for the Rockies and Little Belts will be
continued. Have also added portions of Southwest Montana to the
advisory, including most of Gallatin county. Temperatures will be
near normals Tuesday but temperatures will trend cooler to well
below normals Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect improving conditions over
the region Wednesday night...as the main storm system for mid week
will be exiting the region. Temperatures will be chilly Thursday
morning...especially in areas with a fresh snow cover. For
Thursday...other than a few passing light showers...precip chances
will be quite low...but temperatures will remain cool. A shortwave
trough and an associated Pacific cold front will then move into the
area on Friday. Although temperatures ahead of this system will
start to warm back up towards seasonal normals...Pacific moisture
will bring a good chance of showers to the area. Then for Saturday
and Sunday...the GFS models seems to have the best handle on the
forecast solution for next weekend. Thus mostly dry and Spring like
temperatures can be expected over the region. Afternoon highs by
Sunday will likely be close to 10 degrees above normal for many
lower elevation locations. For Monday...expect a transition to more
wetter conditions to develop by late afternoon...as the weekend
upper level ridge breaks down and a Pacific cold front moves into
the region. Temperatures will still be mild in the eastern
portions...but with clouds and precip expected over the Rocky
Mountain Front by Monday afternoon...expect slightly cooler
temperatures in this region.

Looking ahead...this storm system for late next Monday and into
Tuesday...is forecasted to be a rather wet system and highlights for
flood/winter weather might be necessary should the forecast models
keep on this track. Brusda/Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1720Z.
VFR conditions will generally continue across the area through 18Z
Tuesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep skies
mostly clear through around 03Z, while breezy and gusty westerly
winds spread across the area through 00Z. Winds will decrease
somewhat after 00Z, but an approaching disturbance will bring
increasing mid/high level cloudiness with gradually lowering
ceilings after 03Z. The disturbance and its associated cold front
will move into the area after 12Z, shifting winds more northwesterly
and bringing an increasing chance of mountain obscuring showers.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  53  31  38 /   0  50  80  70
CTB  35  51  27  35 /   0  50  80  60
HLN  37  54  35  47 /   0  40  50  60
BZN  30  54  29  48 /   0  60  60  60
WEY  22  47  22  42 /   0  50  60  50
DLN  32  54  28  48 /   0  40  40  50
HVR  32  58  28  39 /   0  30  70  40
LWT  30  52  28  34 /   0  40  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Broadwater...Cascade...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher.

&&

$$


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