


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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819 FXUS65 KTFX 272050 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - This afternoon and evening there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms with a few strong to severe thunderstorms. - Saturday through early next week it drys out and warms up. - Wednesday through the end of the work week there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon the upper-level flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will be zonal. This combined with a weak shortwave will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this afternoon and evening. Most of the storms will be in Central and North-central Montana east of I-15. Isolated storms in Judith Basin and Fergus County will be strong to severe this afternoon through this evening. The zonal flow will remain over the area on Saturday. Along the Hi- Line there will isolated showers tomorrow afternoon and evening. Due to a strong surface pressure gradient this afternoon and tomorrow along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent pains and in Southwestern Montana this afternoon it will be windy. On Sunday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will gradually warm up temperatures and bring mostly dry weather to the area on Sunday. On Monday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which will keep mostly dry weather and warm temperatures up further. On Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with southwest flow aloft will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next Friday passing upper-level disturbances combined with the upper- level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (5% chance for severe wind gusts of 58 mph or greater) across southern Judith Basin and Fergus Counties this afternoon. Saturday there is a 15 - 35% chance for thunderstorms in Southwestern Montana and along the Hi-Line. On Sunday and Monday there is a 10 - 25% chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Tuesday there is a 15 - 40% chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 25 - 50% chance for thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Monday there is a 20 - 50% chance for a high of 90 degrees or greater across North-central Montana, the Helena Valley, and the Gallatin Valley. On Tuesday there is a 50 - 80% chance for a high of 90 degrees or greater across North-central Montana, the Helena Valley, and the Gallatin Valley. -IG && .AVIATION... 27/18Z TAF Period While VFR conditions are expected to prevail across North Central and Southwestern Montana today, there will be a few scattered SHRA and TSRA across the area today, mainly north of I-90 and near and south of a line from KGTF and KHVR. While most of these should be general storms, a few may produce gusty winds and small hail near and east of KLWT. Any SHRA and TSRA should dissipate by sunset, leaving clearing skies for the remainder of the TAF period. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 52 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 47 72 47 77 / 0 20 0 0 HLN 52 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 49 82 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 39 76 37 75 / 20 10 0 0 DLN 46 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 53 80 50 80 / 0 10 10 0 LWT 50 74 47 74 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls