Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 291538
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
938 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAIN TWEAKS WERE TO
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO REFLECT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ARE BOTH ON TRACK.  COULSTON

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THERE COULD BE
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK...AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 533 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. GUST SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RH VALUES TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CALMER AFTER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER DRYING AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB EACH DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID NINETIES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SUK

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  79  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  81  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  72  36  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  47  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  81  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  78  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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