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000
FXUS65 KTFX 062326
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
426 PM MST Thu Mar 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...A strong temperatures gradient continues
to wash back and forth across central Montana as a cold front
continues to dominate the area. Locations south of the boundary
have reported widespread snowmelt and areal flood advisories and
warnings are in place. North of the boundary freezing rain has
moved off...however untreated surfaces will remain slippery. A
second upper level disturbance will move through area and push the
cold front south well out of the area. Moist air continues to flow
over the divide...and will continue through Friday morning. Have
kept the winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow along
the Rocky Mountain Front in effect with additional accumulation of
less than 3 to 6 inches near pass level and 6 to 12 inches above
pass level. Relatively dry conditions will persist Friday
through Saturday. However warming will return Saturday and could
cause an increase to flooding concerns as warm temperatures
continue to cause additional snowmelt. Suk

Saturday night through Thursday...Medium range models are in decent
agreement to start the period. The upper ridge gets flattened
Saturday night as short wave energy moves across the divide embedded
within the fast westerly flow aloft. The downslope winds will keep
the plains dry and confine precipitation to the western and
southwest mountains. A stronger upper trof moves to western Montana
on Monday bringing widespread mountain showers and isolated showers
over the plains. A strong upper ridge builds over the west coast on
Tuesday allowing an upper trof to slide down the front of the ridge.
The models offer differing solutions for this feature with the GFS
keeping the bulk of the precipitation across southwest Montana and
eastern Idaho. The European model has the strongest energy well east
of the area, over the upper Midwest. Regardless, both models do
paint scattered showers across the area. The upper ridge builds over
the inter-mountain west on Wednesday but a somewhat unstable
northwest flow aloft will provide isolated showers. The European
model brings another upper trof to western Montana Thursday while
the GFS maintains a somewhat dry northwest flow aloft. Have gone
with some precipitation over the southwest while keeping dry
conditions across the central and northern portions of the county
warning area. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages
Sunday and Monday but will cool to near seasonal averages Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2324Z.
An upper level disturbance will move through central Montana tonight
and bring another period of light precip into the area. Ample low
level moisture will remain across central and northern portions of
region. This will cause areas of MVFR/IFR conditions due to cigs,
vsbys, and snow.  Weak high pressure will build Friday and gusty
west winds will develop across the Rockies and adjacent plains
during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  18  43  29  51 /  20  10  10   0
CTB   7  39  26  47 /  30  10  10   0
HLN  28  42  24  47 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  28  44  22  47 /  30  30  20   0
WEY  25  39  12  41 /  50  50  20  10
DLN  25  41  20  44 /  30  20  10  10
HVR   6  30  17  47 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  20  39  25  49 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Friday FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS are in effect for Lewis and Clark, and
Gallatin Counties until Friday afternoon.

AREAL Flood Advisories are in effect for Madison, Jefferson,
Broadwater, and Judith Basin Counties until Friday Afternoon.

&&

$$


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