Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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000
FXUS65 KTFX 170002
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Update early this evening...Snow showers have decreased along the
northern Rocky Mountain Front, so the winter weather highlights have
been allowed to expire.
Coulston/MPJ

Tonight through Friday night...Shortwave trough which brought
precip to the region over the past day will continue to aid in the
development of a few showers through tonight. On
Thursday...shortwave ridging will build across central Montana.
Temps will respond nicely with lower elevations generally reaching
the middle to upper 50s. Valleys in SW MT should reach the lower
to middle 60s. By Friday...a shortwave trough will move along the
US/Canadian border bringing a cold front across the region. Temps
will be a few degrees cooler but the biggest impact will be
increasing winds along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front and
extending out onto the High Plains. Contemplated issuing a high
wind watch but opted to hold off and let the overnight shift
evaluate with another run of model data. Foltz

Saturday through Wednesday night...Mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area over the weekend. Temps across the lower elevations
will respond nicely with highs both Saturday and Sunday making it
into the lower to middle 60s. Focus then shifts to a potentially
significant longwave trough which will begin to approach the
region on Tuesday. Model guidance is in reasonable
agreement...especially considering this is still 6 to 7 days out.
Worse case scenario would be a significant amount of rain falling
over the mountain snowpack ahead of the trough. Significant
changes to the timing and track of the trough are certainly
possible but it`s definitely something that will have to be
closely monitored over the coming days. In the interim...went
ahead and raised PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday and lowered highs
on Wednesday by several degrees. Foltz

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
The unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will continue over north
central and southwest Montana through 12Z. A weak disturbance in the
flow will continue to bring occasional snow showers to the area,
mainly through 10Z. These showers will likely cause mountain
obscuration, as well as MVFR/IFR conditions. After 12Z, an upper
level ridge of high pressure will gradually move into the area, but
increasing moisture aloft will keep areas of mid level cloudiness
across the area. A frontal boundary along the north and east facing
slopes of the Rockies will shift northeast through the period,
causing winds to shift from easterly to more southwesterly.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  58  39  57 /  30  20  20  30
CTB  28  54  34  53 /  40  30  30  30
HLN  33  62  38  58 /  30  20  30  40
BZN  29  63  33  61 /  40  10  20  40
WEY  21  52  31  52 /  30  10  20  50
DLN  29  63  36  60 /  20  10  30  40
HVR  27  56  32  60 /  30  20  20  30
LWT  25  54  32  57 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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