Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 280951
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT THE REGION. HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT A DECENT RATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES AS DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL
PARK. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE GFS NOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.
WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION FROM A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH 00Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR BLAINE... HILL... AND PART OF
CHOUTEAU COUNTY UNTIL NOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO A
LATE WINTER EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WHERE SOME FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BEARS PAW MOUNTAINS...
HIGHWOODS... AND LITTLE BELTS MAY EXPERIENCED PROLONGED PERIODS OF
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BECAUSE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAD BEEN DRY THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOILS WILL BE
ABLE TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER IF
RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELM SOIL ABSORPTION RATES SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS LIKE SMALL STREAMS AND FIRE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  51  80  53 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  72  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  71  49  81  53 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  70  47  80  51 /  20   0   0   0
WEY  62  31  72  36 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  67  43  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  72  51  82  53 /  60  10   0   0
LWT  69  49  78  53 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR MTZ011-013-047.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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