Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 072042
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
242 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2014

.DISCUSSION
Monday through Wednesday...A large scale upper level ridge of high
pressure will slowly drift westward over the region bringing its
axis over the area by the middle of this week. Hot and Dry
conditions will dominate the first half of the work week as
temperatures continue to climb back above seasonal averages
through the period. Shower activity will be limited by the lack of
available moisture for the first two days before monsoonal flow
begins to creep into the region by Wednesday. Some isolated
mountain based showers will be possible during peak
heating...however unlikely.

Wednesday through Sunday...A warm weather pattern will continue
to reside over the region for late next week and into next
weekend. Expect afternoon temperatures to generally range from 6
to 12 degrees above normal...with only an isolated passing
thunderstorm from time to time. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will generally be over the region through the
period...allowing for the above normal temperatures. On Wednesday
evening...monsoonal moisture combined with an upper level
disturbance moving through the region will be best
chance/timeframe for a thunderstorm to form. For Thursday through
Monday...no strong dynamics...combined with minimal amounts of
monsoonal moisture...will only allow for isolated chances of any
thunderstorm activity. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1725Z.
Area of weak high pressure will build into the Northern Rockies
behind a frontal boundary that pushed through early this morning and
brought a few showers/storms to the area. VFR conditions will
prevail through this TAF period with relatively light winds and
mostly clear skies. Any gusts near 20 kts will be diurnally driven
and should subside after 00Z/Tuesday. Uttech

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  85  57  90 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  51  82  54  87 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  56  88  61  90 /  10  10  10  20
BZN  49  84  54  87 /  10  10  10  20
WEY  39  80  46  80 /   0  10  10  20
DLN  52  86  57  86 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  50  85  54  91 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  49  80  55  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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