Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 072132
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
232 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  26  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  26  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  18  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  13  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  24  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  22  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  22  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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