Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 030450
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TWO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. FIRST
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS DROPPED FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AS RADAR WAS NOT INDICATING ANY ACTIVITY AT MID-EVENING
AND A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD NOT
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADD SOME SMOKE TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
AND COULD POSSIBLY LOWER FURTHER THE REST OF TONIGHT. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION
UPDATED 0445Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, UNLESS OTHERWISE MENTIONED. A MOSTLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. ALSO, SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL MAKE
FOR HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE EASTERN
TFX TERMINALS (KHVR KLWT) UNDER AN INVERSION THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
OTHERWISE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE AREA AFTER 18Z, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY OF
THESE STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS LOW.
COULSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A MIX OF WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM CUT BANK TO
HAVRE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO SOUTHWARD. ALSO EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WE
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE YET. THUS...VERY
WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
MILD/WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AN ISOLATED PASSING THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AGAIN ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...A CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE COOL FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
CUT BANK AREA AROUND 4 PM AND IN THE GREAT FALLS AREA AROUND 7 PM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BRUSDA

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A REX BLOCK PATTERN TO BE ESTABLISHED
SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A WEAKLY CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MONTANA SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE REFRESHING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WARMER AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. SUNNY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPICTED CONSISTENTLY IN MODEL GUIDANCE
DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC
RIDGE DECAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS SOUTHWEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE MIX. TEMPERATURES
TREND DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SUGGEST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
INFLUENCE MID LAYER STABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  91  60  92 /  10  10  10  20
CTB  53  90  54  83 /  10  10  10  30
HLN  61  95  62  96 /   0  10  10  10
BZN  52  91  52  93 /   0  10  10   0
WEY  43  82  43  83 /   0  10  10  10
DLN  55  89  54  91 /   0  10   0  10
HVR  56  93  60  91 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  57  88  59  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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