Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 020443
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1040 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Updated Aviation

.UPDATE...
The main change to the forecast tonight was with sky cover.
Lowered sky cover over most of the forecast area for the rest of
this evening. Satellite imagery showed the beginnings of a chinook
arch of cloudiness near the western mountains early in the
evening. Expect this cloudiness to spread east and south the rest
of tonight. Went with mostly cloudy skies along the east slopes by
late tonight with partly cloudy skies farther east. There is a
possibility that this cloudiness could be thin and that partly
cloudy would be a better descriptor for sky cover than mostly
cloudy but have opted to go the mostly cloudy route. Increased
winds over the U.S. route 2 area a little for the rest of this
evening. Also increased winds for Logan Pass in Glacier National
Park for the rest of tonight and Tuesday morning based on current
observations and expected trends. Forecast lows for tonight look
OK but a little concerned that cloudiness could keep lows for
Tuesday morning warmer than currently forecast over the east
slopes. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
Mainly clear and tranquil conditions are expected tonight. Have
mentioned VCFG for KBZN tonight but forecast confidence is low.
Westerly winds will become breezy on Tuesday afternoon across the
north-central plains with increasing afternoon high clouds. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. MLV

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday then drop below normal
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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