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000
FXUS65 KTFX 222324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
521 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...A Pacific cold front continues to push
eastward through the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are developing. Some storms could be severe this
evening over Southwest Montana. Expect rain to change to snow
after Midnight tonight. The Kings Hill area could see 2 to 4
inches of snow...and a winter weather advisory might be needed for
that region should it pan out. The high wind watch has been
upgraded to a high wind warning...with strong winds expected on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Wednesday
across the region. Scattered showers are possible over the
region...but an all day rain is not expected. For
Thursday...expect slowly rebounding temperatures...with showers
becoming a bit more isolated...as we are in-between storm systems.
Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...In a general sense models are on
the same page with trends during the period. Expect scattered
showers to diminish Thursday night as an upper ridge moves through
western Montana and into central Montana. Then a wet period is
expected. A strong upper trough will move through the western U.S.
Friday through Saturday. Several weather disturbances embedded in
the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will bring
periods of rain to the forecast area during this time frame. Then
Sunday the main portion of the upper trough is expected to move into
the central Plains. Southeast flow aloft ahead of the upper trough
will continue to feed in moisture to an area possibly as far west as
a Havre to Great Falls to Bozeman line. Since the models are in
better agreement with this wet period have increased the chances of
precipitation for Friday night through Saturday and also east of the
line mentioned above for Sunday. For the period Friday afternoon
through Sunday precipitation amounts ranging from a half inch to an
inch from the western mountains to the eastern plains could occur.
Models are also in better agreement with forecast temperatures for
Saturday and Sunday as the ECMWF is not as cold as previously while
the GFS is quite a bit colder. Now expect highs only in the 40s over
the plains and 50 to 55 for lower elevations of southwest Montana
over the weekend. In line with the colder temperatures expect snow
over the mountains with lower elevations possibly seeing a little
snow as well during the overnight periods. Looking ahead to early
next week models are pointing to warmer temperatures with decreasing
chances of precipitation as an upper ridge develops. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.
A Pacific cold front has moved into central Montana and will cross
into eastern Montana later this evening. The air mass is unstable
ahead of this cold front and scattered thunderstorms will continue
into the evening ahead of this front. Winds will become strong from
the west after frontal passage. The threat of thunderstorms will
diminish behind the cold front although widespread rain will
continue. Local MFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms along with some gusts near 50 kts. Snow will develop
behind the cold front and local IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions will prevail Wednesday. The air mass will become slightly
unstable again during the afternoon with a chance of showers
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  52  34  57 / 100  30  10  20
CTB  36  51  31  55 /  90  20  10  20
HLN  36  53  35  58 / 100  30  20  30
BZN  32  52  30  58 /  90  40  30  30
WEY  28  43  25  48 /  90  60  40  40
DLN  30  50  31  56 /  90  30  30  30
HVR  41  58  33  60 / 100  40  30  20
LWT  35  51  29  55 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 10 PM MDT this evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Gallatin...Madison...Meagher.

FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon Gallatin.

&&

$$

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