Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 162328
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Clouds and moisture will continue to
increase tonight with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible
over far southwest Montana this evening. Despite the increase in
cloud cover over the north-central plains, mainly dry conditions
will persist along with light winds. As the upper-level ridge
axis shifts east and an upper-level trough of low pressure
approaches, westerly winds will increase in addition to moisture
and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
Continental Divide and across southwest Montana. As the shortwave
trough moves over the Northern Rockies by Thursday, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will spread north and east into the
plains and valleys, but coverage will remain scattered. The
warmest day will be on Wednesday where high temperatures will
reach the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will return to
seasonal averages on Thursday. MLV

Thursday night through Tuesday...A low pressure shortwave will
cross Central Montana Thursday night and Friday. This will be a
fairly fast moving shortwave and the air mass will not have much
time to moisten. However, earlier instability will be in place and
scattered evening showers and thunderstorms are expected,
especially over the southwest zones. The shortwave will bring
stronger winds aloft into the region and mixing should bring
breezy conditions to the Rockies and adjacent plains during the
evening. Instability will be quite weak Friday but with cooling
temps aloft, will continue to mention afternoon thunderstorms.
High pressure aloft will build Friday night and continue to
dominate the pattern through the rest of the period. The ridge
will be over Central Montana Sunday night and Monday and some
moisture will be able to sneak north underneath the ridge. Extreme
Southwest Montana would be the only area that might be affected
but the chance of convection will be slight and will not mention
at this time. Temperatures will trend higher through the period
and remain well above seasonal normals. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
A weak disturbance and accompanying swath of moisture cutting
through the high pressure ridge over MT will continue to move
eastward through the state this evening.  Primary result will be
large areas of BKN-OVC high-level clouds across the region, with a
few -SHRA possible through 03-04Z near KBZN thanks to slightly more
unstable conditions there.  Winds will remain light this evening.
Waranauskas


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  84  54  81 /   0   0   0  20
CTB  44  82  48  80 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  52  87  53  82 /  10   0  10  30
BZN  47  84  49  76 /  10  10  10  30
WEY  36  75  40  71 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  48  83  52  77 /  10  20  20  40
HVR  47  83  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
LWT  51  84  55  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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