Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 292323
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
523 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, BUT THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HI-LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT THEY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON. COULSTON

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. THE AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY THAT
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BUT AS MORE
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
LIKELY BE IN THE 80S. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2323Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  87  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  86  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  88  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  33  78  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  86  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ112.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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