Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 200938
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A slow moving upper level low pressure
system will affect the region over the next several days. As a
result...expect temperatures to cool down quite a bit...and the
chances for precipitation to increase. Scattered thunderstorms
will move through the region this morning...then the precip should
get more widespread and stratiform this evening...with the
heaviest precip falling over North Central MT. Expect a break in
the precip for a few hours on Thursday...only for another round of
steady precipitation to redevelop Thursday night and continue
through the day on Friday. The airmass will be cool enough by late
Thursday night for some light accumulating snow to fall above 8000
feet in Glacier Park. Any snow accumulations should be less than
1 inch. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
still look good from today through Friday over much of Central and
North Central MT. Afternoon high temperatures are going to be
greatly dependent on cloud cover/precip...but overall by Friday
many areas will be seeing afternoon temperatures close to 20
degrees or more below normal.

Friday Night through Wednesday...Medium range models are in good
agreement that wetter and much cooler conditions will prevail
through the weekend. Objective guidance temperatures continue to
trend cooler keeping high temperatures in the 50s and 60s Saturday
and Sunday. Overnight lows will be cold enough to support minor snow
accumulations over the highest elevations of Glacier Park, but it
does not appear that any significant impacts should be expected.
Models are in better agreement for the Monday through Wednesday
period with upper level troughing remaining over the Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but temperatures
are expected to warm back toward the 70s. By Wednesday the trough
will finally progress eastward allowing shortwave ridging to build
over Montana and temperatures to trend back toward seasonal
averages. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0930Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through today.
Locations across the north, including KCTB, KHVR, and KGTF will
see lowered ceilings behind a passing cold front today. MVFR CIGS
are possible across this area through early this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  55  66  51 /  50  80  70  60
CTB  70  51  58  47 /  80  80  70  60
HLN  80  54  72  51 /  40  70  70  60
BZN  79  50  73  49 /  40  50  70  60
WEY  65  43  63  42 /  50  50  50  40
DLN  75  47  73  45 /  40  50  50  50
HVR  78  57  66  53 /  30  80  70  60
LWT  76  54  65  50 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls
www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.