200
FXUS65 KTFX 112053
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
253 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures this weekend.

- Turning much cooler, with the potential for a nice rainfall over
  North Central MT early next week.

- The rain could mix with snow Tuesday into Wednesday at ridge
  tops in Glacier National Park.

- Summer like conditions return by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
Quiet weather conditions will reside over the CWA for the next few
days, as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds in from our
west. Do expect a nice warming trend, with afternoon temperatures
becoming very warm by Sunday afternoon. No precipitation is
expected until Sunday night.

For Monday through Wednesday, a fairly strong July upper level
trof is expected to move southward from Canada into North Central
MT. This trof will produce a rare cool July afternoon over North
Central MT on Tue and possibly into Wednesday. Afternoon
temperatures on Tue/Wed will likely mostly be in the 50s and 60s
over North Central MT. Southwest MT will not be as cool. Expect a
good chance for showers starting Monday and going into Wednesday
over North Central MT. There is the potential that a few strong
storms could develop on Monday afternoon, depending on the timing
of frontal passage.

The cool snap will be short, as summer like temperatures start to
move back in as soon as Thursday, with a warm day expected next
Friday. Weak shortwave ridging on Thu/Fri will also allow for
mostly dry conditions.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The main impacts over the next few days will be the very warm
temperatures on Sunday and the cool snap next Tue/Wed.

On Sunday, afternoon temperatures could approach 95 degrees in
some areas. Even though these are warm temperatures, no heat
advisories are planned for at this time.

For the Tue/Wed system, confidence is increasing on the potential
for a few cool days and a nice rainfall over North Central MT. At
this time, there is about a 60 percent chance total rainfall
amounts of about 1/2 to 1 inch look likely over North Central MT,
and a 30 percent a few areas could receive over 1 inch.

On Tuesday, there is an 80 percent chance afternoon temperatures
will be colder than 65 degrees.

In terms of snow, right now it is a low probability, but some snow
could mix in at ridge tops Tue/Wed in Glacier Park, mostly for
elevations above 8000 feet. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
11/18Z TAF Period

High pressure built in will keep tranquil conditions during the
TAF period other than afternoon cumulus clouds over the mountains
and a few passing clouds overnight. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed
regional aviation weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  91  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  51  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  54  90  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  48  91  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  37  82  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  47  87  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  53  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  49  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls