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000
FXUS65 KTFX 102354
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...current forecast is on track. The only adjustment was to
add Fergus County to the winter weather advisory. Otherwise...a
band of moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to develop
this evening from just west of Cut Bank...down to Great Falls and
then over to Lewistown with periods of rain/snow expected in
Southwest MT. The heaviest precip should fall from mainly 7 PM
until about 1 AM or so...then gradually tapper off from North to
South. Thus a few areas over Central MT will likely see a heavier
burst of snowfall this evening. For now I have kept the Great
Falls area out of the advisory but we will evaluate this closely
through the evening as the change over from rain to snow will be
critical for total snow accumulations. Overnight lows will fall
mostly into the 20s across the region. Brusda

Thursday night through Tuesday...A weather disturbance aloft is
forecast to move through the forecast area Friday but models are not
particularly excited about the associated moisture so will just
continue with a chance of snow for the mountains with mostly dry
conditions over the plains and only a slight chance of rain or snow
for the southwest valleys. An upper ridge moves over the forecast
area Friday night and Saturday with only a small threat for snow
over the mountains. By early next week weather disturbances aloft
will again affect the forecast area. Again models do not show a lot
of moisture with the disturbances so will go with scattered snow
over the mountains and isolated rain or snow for the lower
elevations.

Winds...As the upper ridge breaks down and moves east of the area
late Saturday night and Sunday westerly flow aloft increases. There
will be a threat for high winds for the Rocky Mountain Front and
this threat could continue into Sunday night.

Temperatures and hydro situation...Still expect a warming trend for
late in the week into the weekend and kept temperatures similar to
the previous forecast. However do want to mention that there is the
potential for high temperatures to be about 10 degrees warmer than
what is in the forecast. This means there could be highs as warm as
the mid 50s to lower 60s by Sunday. However confidence in reaching
these warmer temperatures is low at this point. Should the warmer
temperatures occur there will be an increased threat for flooding
along some small streams and areas of poor drainage. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2355Z.
A weather system will be moving through the area the rest of today
and tonight. Widespread rainshowers will give way to snow bringing
visibilities down throughout the even hours. The bulk of the
precipitation will be wrapping up by daybreak with Clearing
Conditions and eventual VFR categories prevailing towards the end of
the TAF period. Some lingering showers may reduce visibilities and
ceilings in the morning hours...however none of these reductions to
flight rules are expected to be long lasting. Suk
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous hydrologic highlights remain in effect for portions of
North Central and Southwest Montana. Run off tonight will be
limited as snow levels fall to around 3500 feet. However...warmer
air will begin to move back into the region by mid week and into
the weekend...increasing the snow melt. Small stream flooding is
likely to continue over a portion of the region for the next
several days. Additionally...even though overnight lows are
expected to fall near/slightly below freezing over the next few
nights...the amount of time the actual temperature will be near/below
freezing will be short lived...and snow melt runoff is likely to
continue through much of the night. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  43  26  50 / 100  10   0   0
CTB  22  43  24  48 /  40   0   0   0
HLN  31  44  23  47 / 100  20   0   0
BZN  30  39  15  44 / 100  20   0   0
WEY  24  36   4  39 / 100  30   0   0
DLN  26  39  17  45 / 100  30   0   0
HVR  24  46  23  51 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  27  41  24  49 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MDT Tuesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM MDT Tuesday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Fergus...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...Meagher.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 AM MDT Tuesday Beaverhead...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...Meagher.

&&

$$

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