386
FXUS65 KTFX 120204
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
804 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures this weekend.

- Turning much cooler, with the potential for a nice rainfall over
  North Central MT early next week.

- The rain could mix with snow Tuesday into Wednesday at ridge
  tops in Glacier National Park.

- Summer like conditions return by late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Satellite imagery this evening shows just some high clouds
streaming across the Northern Rockies and MT in WNW flow aloft
around broad upper level ridging. Surface pressure gradient across
the area remains fairly weak for overall light winds to go along
with the dry and seasonable conditions through tomorrow morning.
Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 519 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
Quiet weather conditions will reside over the CWA for the next few
days, as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds in from our
west. Do expect a nice warming trend, with afternoon temperatures
becoming very warm by Sunday afternoon. No precipitation is
expected until Sunday night.

For Monday through Wednesday, a fairly strong July upper level
trof is expected to move southward from Canada into North Central
MT. This trof will produce a rare cool July afternoon over North
Central MT on Tue and possibly into Wednesday. Afternoon
temperatures on Tue/Wed will likely mostly be in the 50s and 60s
over North Central MT. Southwest MT will not be as cool. Expect a
good chance for showers starting Monday and going into Wednesday
over North Central MT. There is the potential that a few strong
storms could develop on Monday afternoon, depending on the timing
of frontal passage.

The cool snap will be short, as summer like temperatures start to
move back in as soon as Thursday, with a warm day expected next
Friday. Weak shortwave ridging on Thu/Fri will also allow for
mostly dry conditions.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The main impacts over the next few days will be the very warm
temperatures on Sunday and the cool snap next Tue/Wed.

On Sunday, afternoon temperatures could approach 95 degrees in
some areas. Even though these are warm temperatures, no heat
advisories are planned for at this time.

For the Tue/Wed system, confidence is increasing on the potential
for a few cool days and a nice rainfall over North Central MT. At
this time, there is about a 60 percent chance total rainfall
amounts of about 1/2 to 1 inch look likely over North Central MT,
and a 30 percent a few areas could receive over 1 inch.

On Tuesday, there is an 80 percent chance afternoon temperatures
will be colder than 65 degrees.

In terms of snow, right now it is a low probability, but some snow
could mix in at ridge tops Tue/Wed in Glacier Park, mostly for
elevations above 8000 feet. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
12/00Z TAF Period

A dry west-northwest flow aloft over a broad upper level ridge of
pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period with
just some high clouds streaming across the region. Surface winds
remain relatively light and variable at most terminals through
Saturday morning. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  91  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  48  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  54  90  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  91  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  35  82  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  45  87  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  52  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  48  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls