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000
FXUS65 KTFX 222055
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
255 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A upper-level disturbance will lead to an increase in cloud cover
and spotty showers across northern and central Montana the rest of
this evening and into the day on Friday. This will be followed by a
drying trend beginning this weekend and lasting through the early
part of next week with warmer temperatures. The next chance of
showers and thunderstorms will come with an approaching system from
the west by late Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...Cold front with light showers/sprinkles
continues to move southward through the region. With temperatures
falling into the falls and a brisk north wind...it does fell
chilly. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s in Southwest
MT...thus sensitive plants might need to be covered. Any snow
should be confined to ridge tops...mainly above 8000 feet. Otherwise...a
few showers continue into Friday along with comfortable
temperatures. The northwesterly flow aloft continues over the
region on Saturday...resulting in a few isolated showers.
Afternoon temperatures will be a touch warmer than Friday. Brusda

Saturday through Wednesday...Area remains under a NW flow aloft
Saturday as the large scale upper level trough progresses east across
the N-central CONUS. Though models are pretty limited in terms of
precip/coverage on Saturday, opted for at least slight chance pops
Saturday as embedded shortwave and upper jet energy combined with
somewhat unstable and cyclonic NW flow aloft should support some
afternoon shower and isolated thunderstorm development. Heights rise
Sunday and Monday as an upper level ridge briefly amplifies and
shifts east across the Northern Rockies and MT ahead of the next
trough from the NE Pacific approaching the West Coast. Afternoon
temperatures still slightly below seasonal averages Saturday warm to
above average by Monday and Tuesday of next week. Still a fair
amount of variability among models with the progression of the
Pacific trough inland by the middle of next week. However in any
case the upper ridge looks to weaken or be replaced by a weak trough
with an influx at at least limited moisture and shortwave energy
from the west/southwest for an increase in cloud-cover and potential
for afternoon shower/thunderstorm development. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1730Z.

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours
across the area. Expect clouds to increase, especially for areas to
the north in the wake of an approaching shortwave trough dropping
south. There is a chance of a brief SHRA, especially north of of a
line from HLN to LWT. However, these should be light enough not to
cause significant reductions in VIS. Off and on SHRA may continue
into the late evening to early night hours but should quickly
dissipate after sunset. Otherwise, breezy conditions are expected
this afternoon with a persistent N to NW wind and will likely
diminish tonight. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  68  44  70 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  40  66  43  68 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  43  72  47  74 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  37  71  42  72 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  31  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  38  72  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  41  71  44  74 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  39  65  40  67 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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