Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 230900
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
300 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday...A dry and cooler air mass is moving into
the forecast area today following a departing upper level
shortwave trough. A subtle wave embedded in the northwesterly flow
may help spawn isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
over Glacier NP and eastward along the Hiline. Westerly winds
have weakened with boundary layer decoupling, but will strengthen
again this afternoon with mixing. Broad ridging aloft will
maintain dry and stable conditions Saturday night through Monday.
PN

Monday Night through Saturday...Latest model runs continue to show
rather uneventful weather conditions for this period.  Broad high
pressure ridge over the southwest states will be the dominant
feature next week, with westerly flow aloft over MT.  A series of
weak Pacific shortwave trofs will move through the flow along the
US/Can border, bringing some scattered aftn/eve thunderstorms to the
Hiline and central counties Tues through Thurs. Still expect these
storms to be a mix of wet/dry types as accompanying moisture plumes
will have only moderate precipitable water values (0.5 to 0.7 inch).
Chances for precip decrease going into next weekend as the upper
ridge axis shifts westward to the Great Basin area and amplifies
northward into central British Columbia/Alberta. That will keep any
shortwave and moisture away from our region and also allow temps to
climb back into the upper 80s and low 90s on Fri/Sat, after being
mostly in the mid 80s during the first half of the week.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0535z.
VFR conditions prevail. Gusty west-northwest winds will gradually
weaken tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Wind gusts up
to 20kt are possible again Saturday with afternoon mixing.  Model
forecasts suggest a slight chance for afternoon -SHRA or -TSRA
vicinity KHVR, but confidence is too low to write into forecast. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  50  86  53 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  76  51  82  51 /  20  20   0   0
HLN  82  54  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  81  47  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  73  39  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  79  46  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  80  52  85  55 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  78  50  83  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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