Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 270542
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Slight
changes to temperatures overnight across the Rocky Mountain Front,
and sky cover in Southwest Montana. Otherwise current forecast
appears on track.  Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0535Z.
VFR conditions expected tonight with mix of clear skies and SCT-BKN
high clouds as initial moisture from a low pressure system in WA
moves into central/southwest MT. KCTB remains the outlier where
moist southeast (upslope) flow is generating a persistent MVFR
overcast around 1500 ft. Cloud cover across the region will
gradually increase with lowering ceilings starting late Fri morning
as surface cold front moves in from Alberta.  Expect scattered areas
of -SN to develop as the front tracks southward with a mix of
VFR/MVFR conditions.  Winds remaining light across the region
tonight through tomorrow morning.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/
Tonight through Sunday...Expect mostly dry conditions tonight before
the next weather system affects the area late Friday into Saturday.
Associated with this  system a reinforcing surge of cold air from
Canada will spread south Friday into Friday night. Will keep a
slight chance to chance of snow for most of the forecast area but
have increased the chances of snow over southwest Montana as the
earlier drier ECMWF has become wetter with its latest run. Could
possibly see up to several inches of snow in the mountains of
southwest Montana. Temperatures will be well below Friday and
Saturday with highs in the  upper teens to low 20s over
north-central Montana and 20s to near 30 across southwest
Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings around zero.
The passage of an east-west oriented weather disturbance aloft
will usher in drier air from the north on Saturday. A dry
northwesterly flow aloft is expected Sunday with some moderation
in temperatures.

Sunday night through Thursday... Another low pressure trof will be
moving  through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold
front  will cross the Canadian border by midday. The cold front will
continue moving south the rest of the day and reach southwest
Montana during the evening. Snow will develop near and behind the
cold front. Confidence in widespread snow has increased so the
chances of snow have been increased significantly.  Snow is expected
to diminish by late Tuesday. Confidence in colder temperatures has
also increased so have lowered temperatures for Tuesday into
Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain out   the north and northwest
thereafter. Several disturbances will be moving through  the
northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which
could  bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the
Rockies  through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   4  21   2  19 /   0  20  60  20
CTB   3  17   0  18 /   0  50  50  20
HLN   9  27   8  24 /  10  30  50  20
BZN   3  29   5  24 /  10  20  40  30
WEY  -3  30  -1  25 /  20  30  50  30
DLN   9  31   7  24 /  10  30  60  20
HVR  -4  20   1  19 /   0  10  20  10
LWT  -1  23   1  18 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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