Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 031139
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
539 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS PEAKING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
DAY TODAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. A WEAK AND
FRACTURED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OREGON TO UTAH IS
PRESSING INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20 MPH TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA, BUT REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL CARRY INCREASING MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE MONDAY AS A
PACIFIC FRONT CROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY
AND INCREASE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NUTTER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH MONTANA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1139Z.

DISTURBANCE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER GREAT BASIN MOVES NORTHEAST WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BENEATH PRECIPITATION CORES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA 18Z THROUGH 03Z. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  64  82  57 /   0  10  30  20
CTB  94  61  83  51 /   0  10  30  10
HLN  96  59  84  55 /  10  20  30  20
BZN  90  57  82  53 /  20  30  40  30
WEY  79  46  73  44 /  30  50  50  40
DLN  87  55  81  52 /  30  50  30  20
HVR  91  60  84  57 /   0  10  30  30
LWT  89  58  79  55 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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