Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 272352
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. BAND OF MOISTURE ROTATING
INTO THE STATE FROM THIS FEATURE HELPING TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL
WEEK...SHEAR ALOFT IS VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT AND STORMS REMAIN
SMALL BUT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE LOW OPENS
INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE DIVIDE.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BY FRIDAY...THE TROF WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE. ENOUGH ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS GENERALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO N-CENTRAL MONTANA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT POPS. THE NEXT MORE POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OREGON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NUTTER

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2345Z. SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT NEXT 24 HRS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA AND A
FEW SHORT-LIVED -TSRA CURRENTLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND VCNTY
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET, LEAVING MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
(GENERALLY AT/ABOVE 5000 FT) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
A REPEAT OF CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA AND
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  66  45  68 /  40  60  50  30
CTB  43  61  39  67 /  40  60  40  20
HLN  48  66  48  74 /  40  60  60  30
BZN  43  61  44  68 /  40  60  50  30
WEY  35  56  35  62 /  40  50  50  40
DLN  43  63  43  70 /  50  50  50  30
HVR  47  73  38  69 /  40  60  30  10
LWT  46  66  44  64 /  40  60  60  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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