Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 300952
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
352 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER STRONG AND WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AFTER A
BRIEF RESPITE BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. SOME CLEARING MAY BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY RETURN JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT DID ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND GLACIER COUNTY.
RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP LOW ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAINLY
DUE TO THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM FIRES IN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE
AREA AND LONG TERM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SUK

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL KEEPING THE SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLE OR ABOVE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WHILE THE GFS TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS CLOSE TO WILDFIRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN SUNDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SUK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUN EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WARANAUSKAS/SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  49  74  52 /  30  20  10  10
CTB  71  46  69  48 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  78  45  76  46 /  30  10   0   0
BZN  82  43  77  45 /  40  10   0   0
WEY  71  32  69  34 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  76  45 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  80  49  75  50 /  20  20   0  10
LWT  79  44  74  49 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
MTZ009-010.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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