Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
807
FXUS65 KTFX 251124
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
524 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...

Northwesterly flow aloft over Montana diminishes today as an
upper level high pressure ridge builds over the region. This
feature will bring dry and warm conditions to the forecast area
today with hot temperatures expected on Monday. A surface cold
front sweeps across the state Monday night for showers and
thunderstorms but cooler temperatures return on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...The persistent northwest flow aloft over
North Central Montana finally comes to an end today as high
pressure ridging builds over the state. Seasonably warm afternoon
high temperatures are expected today along with mostly clear
skies and generally light winds. Axis of the thermal ridge will
move across Montana on Monday for hot temperatures with breezy to
windy conditions developing ahead of a surface low pressure
system. This system moves through Central Montana Monday evening
and is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms as a surface
cold front sweeps across the state. Unsettled conditions will
continue into Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures dropping
back toward seasonal averages once again. mpj

Tuesday Night through Saturday...A closed upper level low is
forecast to drift slowly south-southeast across AB/SK through the
mid-week period. This places our region in a weak northwest flow
aloft, resulting in near-average temperatures and chances for
scattered light showers. Isolated afternoon thundershowers will be
possible both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. This upper level low
moves away Thursday night, replaced by fair weather on Friday under
a progressive ridge. The next shortwave trough arrives on Saturday,
possibly creating an environment capable of supporting stronger
thunderstorms. The current cycle presents reasonably good agreement
among models through this period, but prior solutions have been
rather inconsistent from one run to the next. Therefore, overall
confidence in the forecast remains moderate through Thursday, then
is low for the end of the period. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1124z.

Upper level high pressure ridge aloft builds over Montana today for
mostly clear and dry conditions through early Monday morning. A
surface low pressure system will develop over the northern Great
Basin tonight with increasing southeasterly wind expected across
North Central Montana after 00Z Monday. mpj

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There continues to be concern for potentially critical fire
weather conditions Monday afternoon and evening. Gusty southeast
winds ahead of a surface low pressure system will combine with
minimum RH values in the teens and increasingly dry fuels in
eastern portions of Fire Weather Zone 113. Latest Day 2 Fire
Weather Outlook from SPC indicates an "elevated" risk and
communications with the SPC fire weather desk suggests that a
"critical" risk could be issued tomorrow. The existing Fire
Weather Watch will remain in effect with expectations that the
watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning in the next 24 hours.
mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  53  91  60 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  80  50  90  58 /   0   0  10  30
HLN  84  54  92  59 /   0   0  20  40
BZN  82  48  90  55 /   0   0  10  30
WEY  75  39  79  44 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  81  51  88  54 /   0   0  10  40
HVR  80  52  94  62 /   0   0   0  30
LWT  75  49  86  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
Hill and Blaine Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.