Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 301735
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE... GORGEOUS SUMMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 80S LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WHILE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE ACTIVITY
WINDS APPEAR TO BE TOO LIGHT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS MODEL RUN BEING FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WITH
THIS MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE OF THE INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER DID NOT
RAISE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO MUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF THEIR PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AND
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST.
BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW 15 KTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  88  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  87  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  78  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  50  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  54  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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