Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261304
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
604 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Increased PoPs as light snow continues this morning for areas from
Choteau to Great Falls, Helena and Bozeman. Little additional snow
accumulation is expected. Travel may be difficult this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1139Z.
Surface high pressure will continue to seep south across the
Canadian border this morning but upslope flow is weakening and the
airmass will dry during the day. Light snow and widespread
cloudiness will keep a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions across Central
Montana. Mountain obscuration Some IFR cigs are possible across
portions of the Hiline, including KCTB. Conditions will improve this
afternoon and VFR conditions should prevail again this afternoon
through Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 439 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2015/

Today through Saturday...There will be a few lingering snow showers
or flurries this morning across central and southwest Montana,
however any additional snow accumulation will be less than a
half-inch. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected through Friday
morning before the next weather system moves into the region Friday
night and Saturday. As the main upper-level area of low pressure
passes south of the Treasure State on Friday night and Saturday,
weak disturbances coupled with a cold, Canadian airmass will keep at
least a slight chance to chance of light snow across the forecast
area. The GFS remains wetter than the ECMWF, however upslope flow at
the surface will support up to an inch of additional snow
accumulation through Saturday. Temperatures will be well below
seasonal averages through the forecast period with highs in the
upper teens to low 20s over north-central Montana and 20s to near 30
across southwest Montana. Overnight lows will be cold with readings
around zero. MLV

Saturday night through Thursday...An upper level low pressure trof
will be over Central Montana early Saturday night but high pressure
will be building aloft by early morning. The airmass will dry and
begin to warm Sunday. Another low pressure trof will be moving
through the Pacific Northwest Monday and the associated cold front
will cross the Canadian border by late afternoon or evening. This
will bring widespread snow across the region Monday night and early
Tuesday. Models show a cold surface high in the mid 1030s so max
temps will likely remain in the teens--well below seasonal normals.
The airmass will dry again Tuesday night. Flow aloft will remain out
the north and northwest. Several disturbances will be moving through
the northwest flow aloft by Wednesday night. The main effect will be
to cause snow showers over the Rockies. These disturbances should
also enhance a surface trof along the lee of the Rockies which could
bring a period of strong winds across the slopes of the Rockies
through Thursday. Zelzer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19   4  21   2 /  20   0  20  30
CTB  17   3  17   0 /  20   0  20  20
HLN  27   9  27   9 /  30  10  20  30
BZN  26   3  29   5 /  30  10  20  40
WEY  29  -3  30  -1 /  20  20  30  30
DLN  30   9  31   7 /  20  10  30  30
HVR  16  -4  20   1 /  10   0  10  20
LWT  18  -1  23   1 /  20   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM MST this morning Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark.

&&

$$

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