Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 012106
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
306 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK CANADIAN COOL FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ONE STRONG STORM IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE FORT BENTON AREA AT 255 PM. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE VERY WARM/HOT IN MANY AREAS.
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LITTLE BELT
MOUNTAINS...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ADDED SOME AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE HAVRE/HARLEM AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MIGHT BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST SHOULD
VISIBILITIES START TO BE REDUCED. BRUSDA

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW CANADA LATE THIS
WEEK THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS AB/SK THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH BC FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH A
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINING AMONG MODELS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH
GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING. COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SW MT
SUNDAY WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO
AREAS NEAR THE ID/WY BORDER. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MAINTAINING A
MORE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY REBUILDS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN US. BOTH SCENARIOS
WOULD BRING WARMING CONDITIONS THOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE
SLOWER. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION
UPDATED 1746Z.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, INCLUDING KCTB AND KHVR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, MAINLY NORTH OF A KGTF-KLWT LINE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  85  58  92 /  20   0  10  10
CTB  52  83  54  90 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  62  91  61  96 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  88  52  91 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  43  80  43  82 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  54  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  55  87  57  94 /  30  10  10  10
LWT  55  82  57  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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