Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 291722
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

Scattered clouds over North Central MT associated with a minor
upper level trof are exiting to the southeast. Satellite imagery
also shows southwest monsoon moisture skirting our far southwest
counties. Increasing instability over the southwest will yield
scattered high based thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening.
Have raised POPs in this area slightly with the update. The rest
of forecast remains on track, indicating highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1723Z.
VFR conditions are likely. There will be isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly over the mountains from the Rocky
Mountain Front to southwest Montana. There is an outside chance
these isolated thunderstorms could drift east over the plains. Local
wind gusts to 40 knots could occur near thunderstorms. Confidence in
forecast winds this afternoon is moderate to high. Light and
variable winds are expected by late tonight and continuing into
Wednesday morning. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

Mid-summer conditions across the region will remain in place as an
upper level ridge lingers over the western USA through the week.
Forecast will continue to be dominated by very warm, but not
excessively hot, temperatures and light winds. Mid and high level
monsoon moisture will continue to make its way north along the
leading edge of the ridge before turning eastward over the
Northern Rockies. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be anticipated each day, mainly over the Western and Southwest
Montana mountains, but activity will likely spill out over the
North Central Plains during the evening and overnight hours. mpj

Thursday Night through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will
prevail during the extended forecast period. The combination of
Monsoonal moisture and weak shortwaves propagating through a broad
upper-level ridge may trigger at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation
coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves and associated
moisture remains uncertain. Latest forecast models suggest that the
best chance for precipitation will be Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger shortwave trough moves across the Treasure State and
flattens the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal averages on Friday, then lower to around seasonal averages
this upcoming weekend with highs generally in the low 80s. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  59  90  59 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  90  55  90  55 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  93  59  91  60 /  10  20  10  10
BZN  86  51  86  53 /  20  20  20  10
WEY  77  40  75  42 /  40  20  30  20
DLN  84  52  83  53 /  20  20  30  20
HVR  95  57  95  57 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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