Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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026
FXUS61 KCLE 272221
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
621 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will tend to dominate the area through early next
week. There will be a weak cold front that drifts south across the
area thursday through saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...Forecast on track. No changes.

Original...A weak cold front will drift south across lake erie by
daybreak but general high pressure remains the dominate influence
across the area. This means moisture and dynamics are limited so
think tonight will remain dry. There could be some patchy fog late
tonight although some increase in clouds may be just enough to
prevent the fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak upper trough dropping se into the area will provide some
additional weak upper forcing to help the weak cold front drifting
south thru the cwa try and trigger some sct shra/tsra thu thru sat
night. The better moisture will be in the south along with the front
most of the time...so should see the better chc for precip there.
Winds off of lake erie will also provide a dampening effect for
convection developing near the lake from daytime heating.

Above normal highs in the mid to upper 80s thu should get moderated
back around normal for fri and sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad upper level trough will remain over the central Great Lakes
for Sunday and Monday. Will need to keep some slight chance/chance
pops for portions of the County Warning Area (CWA) with this
feature. At this point it looks like an afternoon/evening
thunderstorm chance. High pressure will attempt to take control of
the region Monday with dry conditions anticipated. The high looks to
slide east of the area by Tuesday with an increase in low level
moisture. This combined with warmer temperatures may allow for a few
isolated thunderstorms.

Temperatures in the long term will be very close to seasonal
averages on Sunday and Monday. Warmer on Tuesday with highs ranging
from the mid 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the region through the TAF
period. The exception may be near KTOL where enough low level
moisture could linger to produce mvfr fog toward sunrise.
Otherwise some increasing high cloud cover expected overnight.
There may be enough moisture at 850 mb to generate a 5000 foot
cloud deck after midnight. At this point have only gone with a
scattered mention for KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, KYNG.

Lake breeze this until this evening will return again late
Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday evening
through Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain the dominant feature over the central
Great Lakes through tonight. A weak cold front will move southward
across Lake Erie on Thursday. As high pressure builds in over the
lake in the wake of the front winds will become northeast. the
northeasterly winds will continue into the weekend as the area of
high pressure persists over southern Ontario. Waves will likely be
the largest on Thursday night into Friday with 1 to 3 feet possible.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/TK
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen



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