Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 112027
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
327 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AN
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE CLEARLY DEFINED WNW
SNOWBANDS OVER THE REGION...WITH AN ENHANCED HURON BAND OVER
EASTERN ERIE PA COUNTY. DRIER AIR AND A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE
SW WILL HELP DECAY THE LAKE EFFECT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. TONIGHT AWAY
FROM THE SNOWBELT WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUDS...BUT SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT FORTUNATELY WIND
SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF TO AROUND 5 MPH REDUCING THE WIND CHILL
FACTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. SW
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE LAPSE RATES CLIMB. THE FIRST BAND WILL
LIKELY CLIP LAKESHORE ERIE/ASHTABULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES
IF THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE. THE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FOR ONGOING LAKE EFFECT.
LOOK FOR HURON BANDS TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE BEST ESTIMATES
FOR THE EVENT IS AREAS IN ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD OF 8-12".
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS AS THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED. SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE PUSHING 20 TO 1 AT TIMES SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE WITH BANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS -10 OR LESS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST WITH MOST
AREAS DIPPING BELOW ZERO. WINDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE RELAXING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE LIKELY. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ESTABLISHED WITH AN END OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT ONGOING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP...LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE SNOW AMOUNTS. IF I HAD TO BET
I WOULD SAY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS PROGGED TO TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS TRYING TO DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS ARE MORE ALONG THE EAST COAST. TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF A
PATTERN...THE MAIN LOW ENDS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SNOW CAN
GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE COUNTIES FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS COLDER MID WEEK AND SHOWS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY SNEAK UP
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY THURSDAY GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWING THE ARCTIC AIR SLIDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FORECAST WILL BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF
NORTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW BANDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MAY STAY
JUST EAST OF KERI THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON
THE KERI FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL START
TO LOWER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...BACKING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP ON FRIDAY...INCREASING UP AROUND 30 KNOTS...FIRST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON THE LAKE THIS
WEEKEND AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE WESTERN BASIN AND SHORE ICE
INCREASE RAPIDLY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHIFTS WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ013-014.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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