Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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116 FXUS64 KTSA 220932 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 432 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to commence between now and daybreak, with roughly the Interstate 40 corridor being the most likely area for initial development near a southward moving frontal boundary in that vicinity. Storms will spread both north and south of the front with time, and at least a marginal severe weather threat will exist with this early day activity. Storm intensities may ramp up by afternoon near or just north of the frontal boundary from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Hail will be the main severe weather threat north of the boundary, while all hazards will be possible near the Red River in the vicinity of the surface front. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, with the current flood watch remaining valid. Tempeeratures will be cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Shower and storm chances will be greatest tonight across southeast Oklahoma, but if convection today forces the surface boundary too far south, coverage and intensity of storms tonight may end up being less than forecast. The frontal boundary starts to return north and wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches from the west. This will result in another round of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with southern and eastern areas once again favored for greatest storm coverage and heaviest rain amounts. A relative lull in convection is expected Friday into Saturday afternoon before storm chances ramp up again late Saturday and Saturday night as another upper wave moves across the area. A cold front will follow the passage of this system, with drier weather returning Sunday into next week as the upper level pattern changes to a more northwest flow. There is still some uncertainty as to whether we will be completely dry early next week, so just rode with the NBM pops for now which keeps most of the area dry. Temperatures through this period look to be near the seasonal averages for late May. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Persistent cluster of storms west of KFSM should slowly progress east early in the forecast period, with additional showers and storms anticipated between 10-12z. Favored area at this time looks to be southeast of I-44. MVFR vis at KFYV is not currently expected to persist more than a few more hours as showers eventually move into that area. Potential still there for multiple rounds of convection from NW AR through SE OK, with current expectation that MVFR conditions will eventually become more widespread from mid afternoon on. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 63 82 68 / 60 30 50 40 FSM 80 66 83 69 / 90 50 50 60 MLC 78 65 82 68 / 90 70 60 50 BVO 77 59 82 65 / 40 10 40 40 FYV 76 62 80 64 / 80 50 50 60 BYV 75 62 80 65 / 60 50 50 60 MKO 75 63 81 66 / 90 50 50 50 MIO 75 61 81 65 / 60 20 40 50 F10 74 63 81 67 / 80 40 60 50 HHW 82 66 82 68 / 80 80 60 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076. AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14