Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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598
FXUS64 KTSA 101918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
118 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The fire weather situation remains fairly marginal as far as any
upgrade of our current Fire Weather Watch is concerned so the plan
is to let the Watch ride. Dew points have increased substantially
from this morning, as have temperatures, and both continue to
increase early this afternoon. Current minimum relative humidities
are near 30 percent to the west of Tulsa, and it is likely that
the overall minimum humidities for this afternoon will be very
near 25 percent at a few locations, with corresponding highs near
the upgrade threshold of 65 degrees. The morning update has
matched what has occurred, temperature and dew point wise, so far
fairly well so no further update to the public products will be
forthcoming at this time. However, winds at the sites that are
nearest to warning criteria for temperatures and humidities have
not consistently been at or above the wind speed criterion,
reinforcing that this is a very marginal situation from a warning
standpoint. We will continue to monitor the observations and
their trends, and remain prepared for any localized upgrades if
they become necessary, even though that potential continues to
wane.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 mph will develop and continue through the
afternoon, diminishing around 00Z. A shift to north to northeast
winds will occur late tonight and into tomorrow morning as a weak
front pushes through the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

.UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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