Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 121951
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level wave has resulted in a rather large area of
precipitation across OK this afternoon...with some embedded
thunder along the southern periphery. This activity was remained
well below severe limits...and has also held temps well down in
the 70s.

Stronger convection has developed over the past 1-2 hours near and
just north of the synoptic front across northern TX. Latest NAM
along with various hi-res models suggests this activity will
organize into one or more complexes...with storms tracking
generally east along the Red River this evening and overnight.
Some severe weather will be possible...although locally heavy
rainfall may be the bigger concern given PWs running around 2
inches. Hopefully this activity will remain rather
progressive...but have gone ahead with a flash flood watch tonight
for far southeast OK. Showers/storms should be exiting southeast
OK/western AR tomorrow morning...with some linger low PoPs
expected into the afternoon.

Upper pattern remains quite active into early next week...with the
frontal boundary eventually lifting north through the area Monday
into Tuesday. Focus for additional rainfall should shift mostly
north of the area later in the week...with more seasonal
temperatures returning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  84  70  86 /  50  40  20  40
FSM   72  82  71  85 /  70  70  20  40
MLC   71  82  71  87 /  80  60  20  40
BVO   65  83  66  84 /  30  20  20  40
FYV   67  78  64  81 /  60  50  20  40
BYV   65  79  63  82 /  50  50  20  40
MKO   70  80  69  85 /  70  50  20  40
MIO   66  82  66  83 /  40  30  20  40
F10   69  81  69  87 /  70  50  20  40
HHW   73  85  71  88 /  80  70  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for OKZ049-053.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....18
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