Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211559
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1059 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning convection has largely moved east of the forecast
area and/or diminished. The cold front has stalled just northwest
of I-44, but should begin moving southward later today. The
boundary may serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms this
afternoon as instability increases south of the front, especially
across parts of Arkansas. Have made minor tweaks to the going POP
forecast this afternoon, mainly to drag the slight chance mention
slightly farther to the south and west. Fire danger will continue
to be an issue on both sides of the boundary, owing to the strong
wind gusts on either side, despite generally higher relative
humidities than yesterday. Updated products out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front moving into the area this morning will allow for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development in the
vicinity of the front for much of the TAF period. Coverage
expected to remain too low for inclusion across the NE OK
sites...but will include elsewhere with VC mention or prob
groups. VFR cigs to prevail for most of the TAF period...with cigs
gradually lowering to MVFR categories later in the period as the
front continues to move further south.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently located near the OK/KS state line this morning will
continue a slow push southward today.  South of front, another very warm
afternoon expected with high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s along
and south of the I-40 corridor. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
will be possible north of back door front into Wednesday as boundary
stalls over southeast Oklahoma then becomes diffuse/lifts north on Thursday.

Models remain in good agreement with moving strong upper level storm system
out of the southern Rockies and into the Central Plains Friday.  A line of
showers/thunderstorms will develop east of dry line Friday morning, sweeping
east through the area Friday afternoon in low level jet axis.  Although
instability will be somewhat marginal, at least a limited severe threat is
expected, including locally heavy rainfall. Additional thunderstorms will
be possible in association with vertically stacked low Friday night into
Saturday morning before system lifts northeast. These storms would pose more
of a hail threat given the steep mid level lapse rates/cold temperatures aloft.

Active weather pattern will continue as another upper wave approaches Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night with an additional round of showers/thunderstorms,
including the potential for a more significant severe weather event.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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