Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240959
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
359 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING LINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD TOWARD NE OK EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH PERSIST HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY STRONG
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL TURN WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUN AND FAVORABLE WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE
MORE EXTENSIVE SNOW/SLEET PACK ACROSS SE OK AND PORTIONS OF NE OK
WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER BUT AGAIN WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS.

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH THIS WAVE PROGGED TO
GET EJECTED QUICKLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE AS IT PASSES THE REGION DOES
CONTAIN UNCERTAINTY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS OPEN THE MID LEVEL WAVE
WHILE THE NAM/SREF CAMP MAINTAIN MORE OF CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ALONG WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THIS FORECAST WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR AREAS NEAREST THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT TO DRY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...WILL SLIGHTLY RAISE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHICH THEN RESULT IN A BIT OF MEASURABLE SNOW / SLEET
ACROSS THE SAME REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIP AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL ENJOY A CONTINUED WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND A RETURN TO SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS. A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE PERSISTENCE...OR LACK
THEREOF...OF THE COLD SFC HIGH ALONG WITH A PREVAILING FAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE CONDITIONS RIPE FOR FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY. THE RESULT IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES...SOME BEING OF THE
FROZEN VARIETY...ARE INCLUDED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  22  50  24 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   37  25  46  28 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   37  23  44  27 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   45  18  50  20 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   40  20  47  22 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   40  20  47  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   39  22  47  24 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   41  20  48  23 /   0   0   0  20
F10   39  22  47  25 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   38  27  46  28 /  10  20  50   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




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