Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181618
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TODAY HAS A SPLIT FLOW LOOK
IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF WAVES ARE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW BENEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
TODAY...AND ANOTHER IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. A HIGH LVL
MOISTURE PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
NEAR FORECAST READINGS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
TOMORROW IN A WEAKENING STATE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR AREA.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR FOG AT KFYV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE ARKLATX REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AS UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW STALLS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE/DRY AIR-MASS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND LARGE
UPPER HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INTO WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO OPERATIONAL
NUMERIC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  47  72  53 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   74  48  72  50 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   73  48  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   68  40  73  52 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   67  42  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   66  44  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   71  46  71  51 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   66  43  70  50 /   0   0   0  20
F10   70  47  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   76  49  72  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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