Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200442
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1142 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TAF forecast remains on track late this evening. Light precipitation
will continue to spread through NE OK/NW AR in advance of upper
low. Ceiling heights will begin to quickly fall in the 06-09Z time
frame with LIFR conditions likely due to fog/drizzle. The low
clouds/fog will likely persist during the morning hours given weak
low level wind fields/limited mixing. Conditions will begin to
slowly improve from west to east through the afternoon hours with
VFR conditions.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Well-defined mid level vort max continues to move across central
OK this evening, resulting in areas of light rain over eastern OK
and northwest AR. Radar data shows back edge to more significant
precip close to U.S. 75 at this time, however both METAR and
Mesonet data suggests some light rain or drizzle continues on the
back side of the system across western OK. Earlier update was made
to raise pops a bit across northeast OK in the 00-06z time frame,
and will keep at least a chance going most areas through the
night. Temps will fall only a little through the night with
extensive cloud cover in place.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Light precipitation will continue to spread into NE OK/NW AR this
evening in advance of upper low. Ceiling heights will begin to
quickly fall overnight as upper system moves across with fog/drizzle
and LIFR conditions appear likely across much of the area. The low
clouds/fog will likely persist during the morning hours given weak
low level wind fields. Conditions will begin to slowly improve
from west to east Friday afternoon, however MVFR ceilings may
continue, especially at the NW AR TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers will continue this evening as an upper level
storm system moves across the area. Rain chances will begin to
taper off later tonight and Friday morning as this system moves
off to the east. A warming trend will begin Friday and continue
through the weekend, with temperatures warming back to near the
seasonal normals. Will keep the weekend dry for now as the
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF do not support the wet solution inidcated by the
NAM, but this will continue to be monitored.

Southwest upper flow will develop by early next week and persist
through the week. Warm and humid weather will prevail in our area,
with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. A severe weather
risk will exist each day and night, but the most widespread severe
weather may hold off until the end of the week, just beyond the
range of this forecaxt.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

AVIATION...12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.