074
FXUS64 KTSA 031905
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The strong/marginally severe convective bow echo continues to
surge eastward/southeastward in far Southeast OK and West-Central
AR early this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to an
inch in diameter continue to be the primary hazards.
Additionally, very heavy rainfall has been observed, with radar
estimating instantaneous rainfall rates between 2-4+ inches per
hour in the heaviest rain. Nuisance flooding and flash flooding
will remain a concern until the convection pushes out of the
forecast area mid-late afternoon. Some of the heaviest rain
amounts have totaled between 1 and 3 inches, per surface obs and
Oklahoma Mesonet obs.

Latest 12z runs of the CAMs still suggest redevelopment of
another cluster of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective system (MCS)
early to mid evening across Western/Central OK as lobe of
vorticity spins up along/ahead of another shortwave trough that
will move across the Southern/Central Plains tonight. With the
boundary layer for much of Eastern OK and Northwest AR being
somewhat stable and worked over behind this mornings/early
afternoon convection, there is still some uncertainty how this
convection will evolve this evening. Have maintained NBM PoPs,
with some minor adjustments, for tonight and into Tuesday morning.
PoPs may need to be further adjusted as the event unfolds this
evening. With the assumption of another MCS spawning this evening,
damaging wind gusts and very heavy rainfall will be the main
concerns (with large hail up to 1 inch in diameter being
secondary) as the MCS advances southeastward into Southeast OK
late this evening and into the overnight hours. North of this
feature, generally along and north of I-40 in Northeast OK, the
shortwave trough is also expected to help produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms that will gradually progress
eastward into West-Central/Northwest AR after midnight. A few of
these particular thunderstorms may be strong and/or marginally
severe as well, with heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and large
hail being the primary hazards. Hi-res model data have the MCS
moving out of the forecast area by or just after sunrise Tuesday.
Will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
Southeast OK and into Northwestern AR at daybreak Tuesday morning,
which should continue to move eastward/southeastward as the
morning progresses. The troughiness mid/upper-level pattern will
persist through the daytime on Tuesday, though the majority of
Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry for most locations. However,
yet another mid-level shortwave trough will arrive over the region
Tuesday evening/night into Wednesday morning as a surface frontal
boundary also approaches from the northwest. Another MCS is
forecast to develop near/ahead of the approaching front as a
result. There is still a lot of uncertainty with how this scenario
will evolve and unfold, timing and locations included. Main
hazards with this scenario would be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

Much more benign and stable conditions arrive by Wednesday
afternoon as northwest flow pattern aloft commences and dominates
through the middle part of the week. Wednesday mornings cold
front may meander/stall across the forecast area during the
daytime Wednesday, perhaps even lifting northward Wednesday
evening/night. By Thursday morning, a stronger surge of surface
high pressure from the Northern Plains is expected to push the
cold front through the entire forecast area, exiting sometime
Thursday night/Friday morning. A few ensemble members and medium-
range deterministic models have isolated showers/thunderstorms
developing along the cold front as it advances southward Thursday
afternoon/evening, but with low confidence in this occurring,
decided to leave the mention of precipitation out of the forecast
for now.

Mid/upper-level ridging will build over West TX/East NM by
Friday, with northwest flow continuing over our region. A few mid-
level perturbations will have to be monitored in later forecasts
for additional thunderstorm complexes rolling through the
northwest flow aloft this upcoming weekend. Otherwise, near
seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expected this
weekend. Beyond this weekend, forecast uncertainty drastically
increases and forecast confidence is low.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convection will continue to spread east and southeast across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon...with
precip exiting Northeast Oklahoma TAF sites early afternoon.
Within the convection...IFR/MVFR conditions with gusty to strong
winds along with heavy rainfall are forecast. By late afternoon
the majority of this activity should be east and southeast of the
TAF sites. Behind the precip...VFR conditions with scattered to
broken mid and high clouds are forecast to become common into
tonight across the CWA. Additional storms become possible again
tonight and will continue with Prob30 groups for timing. MVFR
conditions then look to return late tonight into Tuesday morning
for the majority of the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  69  89 /  40  20  70   0
FSM   70  86  72  91 /  30  20  70  20
MLC   69  87  70  89 /  30  10  60  10
BVO   66  84  64  89 /  40  20  70   0
FYV   66  83  66  86 /  40  30  80  20
BYV   66  84  67  86 /  40  40  80  20
MKO   68  84  69  87 /  40  10  70  10
MIO   66  84  66  86 /  40  30  80  10
F10   68  85  68  87 /  40  10  70  10
HHW   68  85  71  86 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20