Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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834 FXUS63 KDDC 011900 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A severe thunderstorm complex is expected to roll across roughly the southwest 2/3rds of our area this afternoon and evening, posing mainly a damaging wind gust threat. - Another chance of severe storms exists on Sunday, however coverage is expected to be much lower. - Precipitation chances persist into early next work week, but begin to diminish by Wednesday as upper level ridging builds out west. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a rather low-amplitude synoptic pattern is in place, with a weak shortwave trough over the far western CONUS and a weak shortwave ridge over the southern plains, resulting in mostly zonal flow across the central Rockies into the central plains. As these features continue to shift east this afternoon and evening, weak vorticity lobes cresting the shortwave ridge will aid in thunderstorm initiation from far southeast CO to the Syracuse/Johnson City area by 21Z. Latest guidance/HREF indicate this activity will expand in coverage and intensity, and organize into a severe linear convective system within an environment characterized by at least 1500-2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of bulk shear as it rolls across roughly the southwestern 2/3rds of our CWA. Given dewpoint temperatures in the 50s and temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s, DCAPE will increase into the 1200-1600 J/Kg range, suggesting the primary severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, large hail will also be possible, especially during the early stages of convection. Thunderstorm activity may linger well into the overnight hours as a few CAMs depict back-building, but should clear southwest KS by sunrise Sunday morning. Daytime Sunday, short range guidance suggest the weak upper level trough out west will dampen as it emerges onto the central plains. Ahead of this weak wave, a lee cyclone in far southeast CO will deepen to around 996-mb, supporting southerly winds to increase across southwest KS into the 20-30 mph range with gusts of 35-40 mph. Concurrently, 850-mb temperatures will rise by 3-5 degrees C, translating to afternoon high reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon and evening, especially west of US-283. Although, weak shear and even larger dewpoint depressions will limit overall coverage. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles indicate nearly zonal flow will be in place atop the central plains, with the main belt of the subtropical jet spread out across the northern CONUS. Chances for precipitation will exist for much of the area Monday and Tuesday as weak vorticity lobes emanating from the Desert Southwest combine with a strong upper level trough moving east across the northern plains, supporting GEFS/ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.01" generally in the 50-80% range. But by Wednesday, ensembles suggest the first sign of the summertime upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West will appear and continue to build through the end of the long term period. This pattern will effectively eliminate all precipitation chances owing to strong DNVA overspreading the central and southern plains. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will mainly be above normal, with highs reaching the 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Latest surface observations show clear skies/VFR flying conditions prevail across all terminals, with south-southwest winds in the 10-15 kt range. Later this afternoon/early evening, thunderstorm development is expected near the KS/CO border, expanding in coverage with time as it moves east-southeast. This activity will likely impact all terminals, with the highest confidence at DDC, GCK, and LBL during the 23-04Z time frame, bringing MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and vis. Once convection exits the area, south-southeast winds will resume aoa 12 kts through sunrise. Towards the end of the period around 13-14Z, winds will increase out of the south into the 17-22 kt range with gusts of 27-32 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Springer