Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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405 FXUS64 KAMA 180015 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 715 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Dry conditions and increasing temperatures are the main headlines of the short term forecast. Quiet weather is expected this afternoon through Saturday night for the Panhandles. Early this afternoon, the Day Cloud Phase satellite RGB shows some cumulus developing across the central and southern Texas Panhandle. These clouds are not expected to form any sort of showers or storms given very dry mid levels. Temperatures have warmed up into the 70s region wide and most locations should reach the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Light winds by Panhandle standards are forecast and will lead to a very nice afternoon and evening across the CWA. Ridging remains over the Southern High Plains on Saturday. Warm air advection at H850 should increase tomorrow with forecast temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 20s Celsius. This will lead to hotter high temperatures on Saturday, with widespread highs in the 90s. Weak surface troughing is forecast to move across the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon and winds will shift to out of the north but should still remain around 15 mph or less. Mostly clear skies are once again forecast which will lead to another nice day for mid May. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Hot temperatures are forecast to end this weekend into early next week for the Panhandles. Highs on Sunday and Monday will have widespread mid to upper 90s and a few locations may hit the triple digit mark for the first time this season. A few storms are possible across the far east on Sunday afternoon and these storms could become strong to severe. Temperatures are forecast to slightly cool down into mid week. West to southwest flow aloft is forecast on Sunday with strong WAA expected in the low levels. Sunday looks to be the first of two consecutive days to feature widespread highs in the 90s with a few locations perhaps hitting 100. The potential for some of the known hot spots (Borger and Palo Duro Canyon for example) to hit the triple digit mark is around 60 percent for both Sunday and Monday. Breezy southwest winds combined with dry air moving in from the west could cause elevated fire weather conditions for the western Panhandles on Sunday afternoon. Further east, enough moisture at the surface and throughout the column may lead to a few thunderstorms during the afternoon on Sunday. Currently not expecting capping to be too much of a concern given the hot temperatures, the main limiting factor would be how much moisture can remain across the east. The 17/12z LREF mean keeps mid 50s dew points across the east by 7 PM on Sunday, would not be surprised for a few storms to develop before quickly moving into western Oklahoma. NBM keeps most of the east dry with non-mentionable PoPs, but given the overall set-up, have included low end mentionable PoPs across the east at this time. If storms do form across the far east, there is enough instability for a storm to become strong to severe with the most likely hazard being strong wind gusts. The main axis of the ridge that supported the hotter temperatures on Sunday and Monday should move off to the east by mid week as troughing digs across the western CONUS. Tuesday should remain on the warmer side before a cold front propels southward across the Plains during the night into Wednesday morning. Would not be surprised if highs are around 10 degrees or more cooler on Wednesday when compared to Tuesday. How long the somewhat cooler temperatures lingers across the Panhandles varies by model as the global deterministic models do not agree on the synoptic pattern beyond mid next week. Muscha && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through late Saturday afternoon. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 57 93 61 96 / 0 10 10 20 Boise City OK 53 87 52 91 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 58 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 55 94 57 98 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 54 92 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 56 91 60 95 / 0 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 50 90 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 53 90 58 95 / 0 0 10 10 Hereford TX 53 93 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 58 93 63 96 / 0 10 10 20 Pampa TX 58 91 62 95 / 0 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 56 92 62 95 / 0 0 10 20 Wellington TX 56 92 62 96 / 0 0 0 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...02