Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING
IN PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC.
BOTH DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING
PROFILE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
CWA. AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND
AGAIN WED AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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