Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291715 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1215 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Since radar/satellite trends currently have any/all convective
activity gobbled up over North Dakota where the better
mid/upper-level lift and forcing reside in association with an
approaching mid-level shortwave, opted to clean up the convection
mention over much of the forecast area for most of the rest of
today, leaving just some chc/slt chc pops/wx mention in across the
north central South Dakota forecast zones late this afternoon. Did
nudge high temperatures up several degrees across the central and
western two-thirds of the cwa where the most recent set of 925hpa
thermal progs indicate high temperatures similar to, if not a bit
warmer than, yesterday`s high temperatures should pan out. The
other confidence booster regarding high temperatures warming a bit
higher today is the 24hour temperature change product which shows
11 AM CDT readings running a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday at 11 AM CDT. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Dry high pressure lingers over the NE, while the rest of the area
is under the influence of the sfc trough over SW SD. NW flow will
continue aloft, allowing off and on weak disturbances to slide
across the region. The one today clips mainly the NE area, where
it`s also drier and more stable and should stay mainly dry. Had a
hard time going above isolated showers/thunderstorms today-tonight
across the rest of the area. The strongest over this short term
period will slide in Thursday, and be associated with a sfc cold
front. Look for the cold front and showers/ts potential to sink
mainly S of the CWA by around 12Z Thursday. Later shifts may be able
to further diminish the potential for lingering precip late Thursday
morning over S portions of our CWA. Not expecting widespread
convection with the cold front. Look for temperatures to fall back
down into the 70s behind the front for Thursday and Friday. The
large sfc high over S Manitoba Thursday afternoon will sink overhead
and across much of MN by Friday afternoon. Mainly dry weather is
expected Thursday afternoon through most of Friday, although
showers could sneak in W river in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

The long term continues to look to be active across our region with
broad upper level low pressure troughing across Canada for most of
the period along with broad high pressure aloft across the southern
U.S. This will put our region in persistent west to southwest flow
with one short wave trough after another coming over our region.
With these hard to time and fast moving waves, difficult to pin down
any one day that would not have a chance of showers/storms. Thus,
all periods contain some chances of precip. Otherwise, with the
heights rising some through the long term, expect temperatures to
warm some with upper 80s to the lower 90s across the cwa by Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Expect good VFR to prevail over the next 24 hours. A strong cold
frontal passage overnight tonight could spark a few showers or
thunderstorms. Did introduce some preliminary thunder
mention/timing into the KMBG TAF to highlight this potential. One
other potential bi-product of this fropa is one or two areas of
MVFR cigs trying to work down into northeast South Dakota /KABR
and KATY/ Thursday morning. Will continue to monitor
satellite/observations and rapid updated short term model guidance
for this potential.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn


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