Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Increased POPs initially to indicate the steady rainfall over NE
SD and W Central MN, this is now exiting the area. A thin line of
additional showers has developed behind the steady rain, and it
too will exit later this morning. Updated HWO to diminish morning
threat, but keep the potential going for mid afternoon to evening.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly after 20Z W of
a line from PIR to MBG and slide E this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MCS continues to move across eastern SD early this morning with the
northern end weakening over the CWA. Still seeing some decent
looking convective elements over FSD CWA moving northward and will
likely be affecting the southeastern counties over the next couple
hours. Earlier storms over the southern CWA produced some small hail
and 40 to 55 mph wind gusts for the most part.

Focus will shift to severe potential later today but it is a rather
complex situation. Will first have to deal with morning activity
across the eastern CWA and will need clouds to depart for
destabilization to once again occur. Secondary upper level wave of
energy is currently off to our southwest and expect that to slide
through the area later today giving us the next chance for storm
redevelopment. Plume of weak to moderate instability surges
northward over eastern SD and west central MN this afternoon and
evening although best 0-6km shear remains further south. But we will
see a decent mid level southwesterly jet moving through the region
this afternoon with a subtle surface wind shift boundary. This will
likely be the focus for any storm development later this afternoon.
Interesting to note that CAM solutions do not show much in the way
of areal coverage of storms, perhaps due to the lack of strong
convergence at the surface. Feel there will be some degree of
redevelopment later today and the potential is certainly there for
strong to severe storms.

Thursday appears to be mostly dry across the CWA but will be
watching western and central SD for precip potential as upper low
spins across eastern MT and western ND. Friday will see the arrival
of the next wave of low pressure which will set the stage for shower
and thunderstorm chances.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

The models have changed some with the evolution of the long wave
pattern across the U.S. during the long term. The models now do not
show a large upper level low pressure area developing over the
Pacific Northwest. They now just show some 50h troughing over this
region. To begin the period, the models all show an upper level low
pressure area off to our southeast over western ks lifting northeast
and across eastern SD through Saturday night. This will bring good
chances of showers and storms for this time period. At this time,
have in low chances/slight chances of showers and storms Sunday,
Sunday night, into Monday. May be able to cut back on these pops
more or remove them in the next forecast as the models were showing
a modest 50h ridge axis pushing across the region. Will see if this
trend continues in later model runs. Otherwise...the Pacific
Northwest 50h troughing digs east and into our region Monday into
Tuesday. This should bring in better chances of showers and storms
for mainly Monday night into Tuesday. Highs through the period will
be mainly in the mid 70s to the lower 80s across the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

MVFR to VFR clouds remain across the area this afternoon, with
ournext round of showers and thunderstorms nearing MBG-PIR around
20-22Z, before slowly sliding E and weakening with the loss of
daytime heating, and ending all together near ATY by around 06Z
Thursday.The best chance of seeing any showers/thunderstorms will
be at MBG,with only VCSH mentioned so far at the rest of the TAF
sites.Otherwise, VFR ceilings and VIS are expected for the daytime
hours Thursday.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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