Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230210 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SOME WAA SHOWERS IN CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL GET PUSHED EAST
LATER TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE WAVE SWINGS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRACKING
EASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP
OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
APPROACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...BUT HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED IT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...AND MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF
COHESIVENESS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW LEVEL JET TIMING
SHOULD MEAN NO SEVERE WEATHER. MAY SEE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT
DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST VERY LONG...THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO NOT
ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY END FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE DRY SLOT
AFFECTS THE AREA...THEN MAY SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S AND 40S.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EVEN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY TO KICK THINGS OFF. MODELS SHOW QUITE A SPREAD IN
850 MB TEMPS...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES. GFS
AND GEM ARE COOLER ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SNEAKING DOWN TO
AROUND ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS OR JUST UNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHEREAS THE EC REMAINS MILD WITH READINGS AS HIGH AS +8
CELSIUS. GENERALLY TOOK A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH AT THIS POINT FOR
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOWING A PRETTY POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM KICKING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AS WELL. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE
JUST SOME TIMING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH STILL. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM INHERITED ALLBLEND POPS IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.





&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...THE WIND WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AT PIR AND MBG. WITH THE STRONG LIFT TONIGHT AND LACK
OF MOISTURE...SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AND COULD AFFECT ABR...ATY AND MBG MAINLY AFTER 04Z
UNTIL 10Z OR SO.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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