Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 180305 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
CLOUDS OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE ABR CWA THIS EVENING. THUS...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING
WEST IN THE CWA. WILL INCREASE LOWS SOME FOR THE NIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. EVEN SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE APPEARED IN OBS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. TOOK A PESSIMISTIC
APPROACH...AND KEPT SKY COVER IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...DID RAISE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TUESDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH FROM THE WEST SOUTH
WEST...AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS INVOLVED WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WELL. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY BLOWING SNOW MENTION AT
THIS TIME SINCE SNOWPACK IS A COUPLE OF DAYS OLD...AND ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO FALLING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER...SOMEWHAT STRONGER...TROUGH WILL REACH
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST BY A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT SOME OF
THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MAY
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
LOW DURING THAT TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WILL THEN SEE SOME WARMER AIR MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.








&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CAA STRATUS MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
ALL LOCATIONS. THESE MAY BE SCATTERED AT TIMES. ALSO...EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT ABR AND ATY. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.