Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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047
FXUS63 KABR 261725 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

No major changes to this mornings forecast package. Wind gusts
have increased to around 30mph, with dewpoints in the 40s
yielding humidity values down into the 20-40 percent range, which
is on target for mid day.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Winds will stay breezy/gusty today as low pressure moves east across
southern Canada. The strongest winds will be across northern SD with
somewhat lighter winds along and south of I-90. 850mb temps at 00Z
this evening are actually a degree or two warmer than what they were
at 00Z last evening, so highs will be fairly similar to yesterday,
or even a tad warmer in some locations. Raised highs from previous
forecast and sided towards the highest guidance members once again
as it is largely too cool across the region. Also tanked dewpoints
today in this dry air mass and good mixing. RH`s yesterday fell well
into the teens across central SD and will once again see low values
today in the 20s for most areas, and probably some teens again over
central SD. Fire danger will be heightened across the area today as
fuels continue to dry out.

Surface high pressure will begin nosing southward into the region
tonight with winds turning northerly. Low/mid level temps begin to
cool as the Canadian air mass settles in. This will bring cooler
temperatures on Monday with highs dropping down into the 70s to low
80s. This high slowly slides southeast Monday through Tuesday,
keeping conditions rather quiet, at least for eastern portions of
the forecast area.

Precipitation chances in the short term look bleak. A weak impulse
in the mid levels will drift across southern SD and Nebraska late
this afternoon/tonight with some surface convergence along the SD/NE
border. Hi-res models show a few thunderstorms across
southwest/south central SD late this afternoon into the evening.
Otherwise, precip chances look to be mainly west of the Missouri
River Monday night into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The pattern for the long term remains unchanged with the latest
model runs with upper ridging out to our west and troughing to the
east keeping our region under northwest flow. This will result in
Canadian air dominating the region with near to below normal
temperatures. At the surface, high pressure will be to our east on
Tuesday night with southeast flow across our region. The models
continue to show a short wave trough dropping southeast across the
western part of the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday
bringing some showers/storms to mainly the western cwa. The models
then show a Canadian cool front slowly moving south across the
region Wednesday into Thursday ushering in another push of cooler
high pressure for late in the week. Expect chances of showers/storms
along and behind this boundary. Surface high pressure will then push
in for Thursday night and Friday with dry conditions. This will then
build east for Friday night and Saturday with return flow/warm
front/llj showers and storms again possible for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty winds this
afternoon will quickly subside this evening.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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