Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171116 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Scattered showers moving into the forecast area this morning
associated with a shortwave moving out of the Rockies in westerly
flow. Once this initial wave pushes east, general consensus between
deterministic guidance and CAMs is that there will be additional
redevelopment of convection so long as we see some daytime heating.
With about 500j/kg skinny CAPE and uni-directional westerly shear,
anticipate if convection develops the strongest storms will be fast
moving with small hail and gusty winds. Additionally, mixed winds
outside of convection is still on the order of 20G30kts - so it will
be another windy day across the CWA.

Diabatically driven convection will weaken overnight, however there
is evidence for a second weaker subtle wave passing shortly behind
the first, so will at least keep the mention of showers going across
much of the area overnight, though QPF potential is minimal.

We remain in an active pattern with cooler temperatures aloft in
northwest flow through the start of next week. No major waves show
up in deterministic guidance however, and NAM BUFKIT soundings show
peak heating skinny CAPE both Sunday and Monday. Mixed winds also
remain breezy out of the northwest. The result will be partly to
mostly cloudy skies with some light showers and temperatures
actually below average for a few days.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The long term should continue to feature a west conus mid level ridge
and east conus trof, but the entire pattern should under go a bit of
a de-amplification during the forecast period.

The main chances of pcpn during the period will occur on Wednesday
and again Thursday. An eastward moving frontal boundary will
interact with increasing llm/instability on Wednesday to potentially
produce some showers/thunderstorms in the east. Better chances are
shaping up for Thursday as llm spreads north into especially eastern
South Dakota. A wave aloft, and at the surface is expected to slide
across the region in the afternoon and evening with the end result
being convection. Current models are in fair agreement concerning
this system. Stability/shear progs are alluding to fair chances for
severe weather. Stay tuned! After that system moves by it should
turn dry and mild for the following weekend.

Temperatures should average out near normal, but may trend down
toward the end of the period as sfc high pressure nudges in from the
north next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through today. Scattered showers and
storms are also expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity
taking place this afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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