Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
822 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE AND MOVING WHERE ITS SUPPOSED
TO...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS OKAY AND WILL NOT ALTER MUCH.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABR JUST
HAVING RECENTLY REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE SHORT RANGE/HI RES MODELS IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS IN THE
JAMES VALLEY...WHICH MAKES TOTALS A BIT DIFFICULT HERE. ALL
DEPENDS ON WHERE THE PIVOTING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW
MODELS SHOW IT TAKING PLACE MORE OVER ROBERTS AND TRAVERSE
COUNTIES WHERE OTHERS ARE MORE OVER NORTHERN BROWN AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES. THIS COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLY. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITION FOR BIG STONE AND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES IF HI RES MODELS TREND TOWARDS HITTING THAT AREA
A BIT HARDER. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
SNOWFALL AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. 925
MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS IS PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE. FOR NOW LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR PUSH...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER HOWEVER...SO WILL JUST
MAINTAIN THE SNOW WORDING AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIXED PRECIP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL...BUT THEY DONT
LAST LONG AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER.

MODELS DO SHOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF IFR SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH KABR/KATY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BACK WEST AND SOUTH AT KPIR/KMBG CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY IFR/MVFR
BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE. KABR/KATY CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TNT
AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KATY LATE TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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