Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 172042
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
242 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Windy conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon, but
subside towards sunset as the inversion sets up thanks to a weak
surface gradient. A weak surface high drifts to the south, and with
light winds and dewpoints in the 30s, a few spots may get some fog
towards morning, but guidance suggests this will not be widespread.

For Saturday, 850mb temperatures will initially start out around
+5/+6C, but warm advection out west will cause these numbers to
increase to around +10C, while in the east the change is essentially
neutral. Winds will be light and shifting to the south, so mixing
will be less efficient compared to today. Mixing to 900mb yields
highs in the mid 50s for the eastern CWA, and to 850mb into the
upper 50s for the Missouri valley. Snow cover will limit mixing for
locations north of Pierre however, so their highs will probably be
in the 40s again.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

By Monday, southwesterly upper level flow will replace ridging as a
long wave trough tracks from west to east across the CONUS. The
center of the associated surface low is expected to track across
southern South Dakota late Sunday through Monday. A dry mid level
layer will be in place initially, so unsure how quickly saturation
will occur or if the forecast is a little quick bringing
precipitation back into the region. Regardless, warm air advection
and a surge of gulf moisture eventually take over, and combined with
weak to moderate forcing, there is a pretty good bet of at least
light rainfall across the CWA. The best chances remain over the
northeast CWA. Given the warm temps (925 MB temps ~10 C) and high
dewpoints (upper 40s/low 50s) instability is present and can`t rule
out rumbles of thunder Monday afternoon.

As the Monday system exits, zonal upper level flow takes over. A
very mild airmass remains in place, in fact, another warm air
advection push ahead of a weak short wave results in 925 MB temps
ranging from 10 C to nearly 20 C from northeast to southwest across
the CWA Tuesday afternoon. No precip expected with that shortwave
however.

Attention then turns to a more significant system expected to
influence the northern plains Thursday and Friday. Still much to far
out to pinpoint the exact location of this system and the most
recent model runs have trended slightly further south with the track
of the low. Plenty of moisture and forcing involved and will be
watching as details become more clear next week. Cold air advection
to follow on the backside of the system Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals. Visby may drop to
MVFR for portions of the morning at KABR/KATY due to fog, but
confidence is low.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Connelly


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