Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200526 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Not many changes for tonight. Did add some fog to the western cwa
where some clearing may occur late tonight. Also, have been
updating pops as system rotates across the region this evening.
Temperatures are okay for now.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

One short wave trough was leaving the east this afternoon with a
second stronger short wave trough moving in from the west. The
rainfall from this short wave was widespread on radar with many obs
reporting light rain. The models also agree with good coverage of
rain through the night into early Thursday. If this system is
slower, we may have to increase chances in the far east Thursday
morning. Also, a secondary vort from the northwest along with some
weak instability may result in the development of a few showers
during the day as some of the models were indicating. May have to
add in some chances of light showers for Thursday. Additional
amounts of a tenth to a half inch are possible into early Thursday.
Otherwise, the low clouds will be slow to move out into Thursday
across the region. Believe the east will remain mostly cloudy
through Thursday. Surface high pressure will build into the region
into Thursday evening with highs in the 50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Conditions are dry to start off the period Thursday night into the
weekend. Surface high will be over the region Thursday night through
Friday night and have lowered overnight MinT`s in the James Valley,
siding more towards ECE guidance. SuperBlend is always too warm
in these scenarios. Warmer air surges into the region on Sunday
ahead of approaching low pressure / frontal boundary. SuperBlend
may be too cool given the synoptic setup with good mixing ahead of
a front. Although, did not stray much from SuperBlend until cloud
cover trends can be better analyzed. It also appears a warm front
will be in the area, with a decent surface temperature gradient
over the region, so didn`t want to get too cute with its position
and resulting temperatures this far out. Looking at cooler temps
moving back in again perhaps at the start of next week. Next
chance of precipitation will be Sunday night and Monday as the
cold front / low pressure moves across the area. Did not stray
from SuperBlend POPs at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

MVFR/VFR cigs will continue across much of the region through the
night, but with some clearing in the far west, possibly into
KPIR/KMBG by daybreak. If the clearing materializes, fog may form
toward morning. Slow improvement in cigs should continue on




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