Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 071526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1026 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THINGS APPEAR
ON TRACK. FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE SO EXPECTING HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MAKING ITS WAY
INTO CORSON COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
SMOKE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS...BUT VSBY HAS NOW IMPROVED TO
10SM OVER KMBG AND KPIR SO WILL LEAVE PATCHY SMOKE MENTION IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH JUST THE MORNING HOURS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO WATCH
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...OR ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRAW LLM
BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE ADDED LLM WILL INTERACT WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA TO
PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES
DIMINISHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. LATE
FRIDAY A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE
ROCKIES AND WILL INCH ITS WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. H7 TEMPS REMAIN RATHER WARM SO THERE COULD BE
SOME CAPPING ISSUES. HOWEVER ON SATURDAY THE GFS IS SIGNALING A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS INCREASING TO
+30C. IF THIS PANS OUT NOT ONLY WOULD IT BREAK ANY CAP...HIGHS
COULD MAX OUT OVER 100F. FOR NOW..DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONG RANGE MODELS..JUST NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
FROM SUPERBLEND TO PLACE US IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KPIR THIS MORNING BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z.
SMOKE WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER IT MAY BECOME A PLAYER AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING (AFTER 3Z)
AND OVERNIGHT. DUE TO MANY DISCREPANCIES IN AREAL COVERAGE IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY PRECIP MENTION IN THE
KMBG/KABR/KPIR TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


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