Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281129 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Accas field over central SD finally began to generate isolated
showers and thunderstorms around 06Z and continue to move southeast
across the western CWA. Hi-res models picking up on this, but a
large number of them may be overdoing the overall areal coverage
through the early to mid morning hours.

Main issue in the short term period is trying to nail down
convection chances in a largely ill-defined pattern with only weak
forcing aloft and at the surface. Best instability today is across
western SD, then it shifts south of the region by Wednesday. Models
are all over the place in terms of timing, placement, and coverage
of convection today through Thursday, which makes this particular
forecast cycle a fairly low confidence one in terms of precipitation
chances. It would appear a fairly stronger mid level impulse tracks
across the area late tonight and Wednesday, which may provide "the
best" precip chances in the short term period. A cold front will
drop south across the area Thursday morning, bringing cooler temps
to the region. Being that the front moves through early, storm
chances along the front that afternoon look minimal for our CWA,
with better chances further south. If anything, there would likely
be something moving through late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

The period begins with a modest 50h ridge axis out to our west with
our region still under northwest flow aloft. This ridge will build
east through the weekend into Monday as a large low pressure area
moves into western Canada with troughing extending south into the
Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large Canadian high pressure
area will drop south into the region Thursday night and to the east
Friday and Friday night. This will bring cooler and drier northeast
winds around to warmer and more moist south to southeast winds
through the weekend into Monday. Temperatures will rise from highs
mainly in the 70s and lower 80s on Friday to the 80s and lower 90s
on Monday. This pattern is also expected to be active as several
short waves come over the ridge and across the region through
Monday. With good build up of instability along with periods of waa
and good wind shear, expect several periods of showers/storms mainly
from Friday night through Monday. Thursday night and Friday look to
be dry under the surface high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Some showers/storms tracking southeast across central SD early this
morning may get near MBG or PIR before they move out of the
region by late morning. Otherwise, vfr conditions are expected
across the region through tonight. Another round of
showers/storms developing this evening may affect PIR and MBG
again.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr


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