Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 020908
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
408 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WINDS ON FRIDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM ON FRIDAY THANKS TO CAA. THANKFULLY
THE PCPN THE 0Z MODEL RUNS ON THE 1ST...IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
VIRTUALLY ALL CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEPTED BY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN
THE EASTERN CWA...TO THE LOWER 60S...IN THE WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND
TEMPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN...WITH
NW FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EC/GFS/GEM ALL SHOW WEAK WAA
TAKING PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH WEAK CAA TAKING OVER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK WAVE TRAVELS OVER WEAK SFC
FRONT/TROUGH SITUATED NW-SE OVER THE STATE. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
OK AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF VERY LIGHT PCPN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH. SUPERBLEND
POPULATED WITH SOME SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN CWA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. OTW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED...NW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...ALTHO IT BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY WEDNESDAY...WITH MINOR IMPULSES DROPPING SE ACROSS THE REGION.
SUPERBLEND SPRINKLED IN SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITHOUT ANY WELL DEFINED WAVE TO HANG POPS ON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR NEXT WEEK ON WHEN/WHERE/IF PCPN WILL OCCUR.

TEMP WISE...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH WAA BECOMING STRONGER. INHERITED AND LATEST
SUPERBLEND GRIDS SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE
POPULATED GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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