Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 092341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK. INCREASED SKY COVER THIS EVENING TO
OVERCAST DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS TRAINING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS SNOW CHCS/AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE...AND DOWNSTREAM EAST CONUS TROF...IE...POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...WAVES WITHIN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION WITH CONSEQUENT BOUTS OF PCPN. ONE DECENT SYSTEM WITH A
STRONG SFC AND WAVE ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...THE SMALL AMOUNT OF
PREDICTED QPF COULD NET ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN CWA.  WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF -ZL BEHIND MAIN
BAND OF SNOW WHERE SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SUCH ACTIVITY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  A RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BACK DOORS THE EAST.  EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE ABERDEEN
FORECAST HIGH...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER FORECAST THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITHIN GOOD MIXING ENVIRONMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A DRY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP.
THE WAA...ALONG WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING PCPN INTO THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST BETTER LLM WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...MUCH WARMER TEMPS AT 925 MB
WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
0C...925 MB TEMPS REMAIN OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING SNOW TO EASTERN SD BY MORNING. VSBY MAY
FALL TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL ALSO MOVE IN TO
KMBG/KATY/KABR. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE


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