Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED AROUND THE
MOBRIDGE AREA. OTHERWISE ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR STRATUS REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES IN THIS CWA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS DRIFTING NORTH
BRIEFLY INTO KPIR OR KATY. BY 12Z SATURDAY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND PUSH OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE


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