Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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071
FXUS63 KABR 272328 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Models are in fair agreement in the short range. Surface high
currently situated over the forecast area will continue to slide
southeast through the next couple days. On the backside of the high
moisture and instability will return to the western high plains.
This region should be the most active through Wednesday as storms
develop over the higher elevations and then spread east/se into the
nocturnal LLJ and instability axis. For tnt some mid level WAA will
probably support elevated accas/weak storms over central South
Dakota.  Most CAMS and lower res models are hinting at this. On
Tuesday the models are latching onto a better setup for an MCS to
from over the high plains.  This activity may penetrate a bit
further east before it likely meets its fate as it moves into drier
air over the northeast CWA. A frontal boundary late Wednesday night
into Thursday may support isolated/sct convection.  But the front
doesn`t appear to have great ll convergence and therefore will keeps
pops in the lower chc category. On thursday high pressure builds
into the region with gradually drying conditions and cooler
temperatures.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The upper pattern this period features a western CONUS ridge and
northwest flow aloft, with a northwest flow wave evident in the
ECMWF/GFS Thursday. Chance for precipitation after the opening few
hours decreases as Canadian high pressure moves into the CWA. As the
upper ridge transitions into the Plains, mid level warm advection
will result in increasing precipitation chances for mainly elevated
convection Friday and into the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will start out at/below normal
with Canadian high pressure moving into the region. Warm advection
will push temperatures and humidity up somewhat through the weekend
with the peak heat/humidity Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Tuesday. Cloud cover will increase across the west late
tonight...with scattered showers possible across the southwestern
CWA late tonight into Tuesday.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin



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