Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210843
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO REMAIN
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO SEEING SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THE WINDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION /50S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA/.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER HOWEVER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK
RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE DOWN...SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH POPS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN
MOVES EAST WITH STRONGER FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST A WELL SATURATED
COLUMN...SO FORECAST POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. OVERALL IT LOOKS PRETTY STABLE...SO GENERAL THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PERIODS OF GREATER BULK SHEAR SO CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE WET THAN DRY. PRECIPITATION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE LOW MEANDERS ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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