Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 101208 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
708 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW DRAWING COOLER AIR...ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.
ADD SOME DAYTIME HEATING...AND MIXING TO AROUND 5-6KFT WILL RESULT
IN SOME 20 TO 25KTS OF WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS PUTS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CWA CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA/VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS ERRATIC HOWEVER...AND GIVEN THE
LOWER SPEEDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
FOR MOISTURE...OR INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURES A 50-60KFT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUNDINGS ARE DEVOID OF
CAPE HOWEVER. MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIRMASS
THAT FOLLOWS SATURDAY. THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...AS H85 READINGS TOP
OUT BETWEEN +6 AND +12C. THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF COLD
ADVECTION TRANSLATES INTO MUCH COLDER HIGHS POTENTIALLY. ALL
MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO AWAY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND STAY
AWAY UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE OUT PERIODS IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY COOL TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE SUGGESTING THE
RIDGE-WEST/TROUGH-EAST FLOW PATTERN MAY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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