Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 121131 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
REMOVED MOST OF THE FROST ADVISORY AS WINDS NEVER DECOUPLED AND
CLOUD COVER HAS LINGERED ALL NIGHT. ONLY FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE THE OPPORTUNITY AS CLEARING WORKS INTO THAT REGION
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FEW LIGHT INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IF WE GET SUNSHINE
TODAY THANKS TO COLD AIR ALOFT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A FEW
SPOTS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO DROP IN TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
FROST BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AND TEMPS LEVEL OFF.

A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MIXING MAY
HELP GET TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL DESPITE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD...BUT WILL THEN SEE A WARMING TREND BEGIN ON
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR CORSON.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     CAMPBELL-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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