Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190147 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
847 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

Issued at 845 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

No major updates this evening.  Forecast looks on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

A few mid level convective showers/storms were holding on late this
afternoon in north central SD moving to the east. These may hold
on a little longer through the afternoon. Otherwise, the models
show an upper level low pressure area over the Pacific Northwest
kicking northeast and across southern Canada into Sunday night.
The response will be very warm low and mid level air advecting
northeast over our region tonight and Sunday along with
strengthening low level winds. The result will be a breezy/windy
and warm night across our CWA with a capping inversion aloft as
70h temperatures warm to +12 to +16C by 12z Sunday morning. A cold
front will also be sweeping quickly across the region on Sunday.
The strong south winds tonight into Sunday will be bringing back
higher dewpoints. With the winds tonight and warmer air advecting
in...temperatures should only fall into the lower to mid 70s
tonight. Expect highs on Sunday to be in the mid to upper 90s
across much of the CWA. The heat along with the humidity will
bring heat indices to 100 to 105 degrees east in the CWA.
Therefore, will leave heat advisory in effect. On Sunday
afternoon, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop along the
cold front as it moves into our eastern cwa as the cap weakens
along with strong forcing along the front. Some of the storms
could be severe. The storms will move east into the evening hours.

Cooler and much drier Canadian air will build in through Sunday
night and Monday as surface high pressure settles in. It could also
be windy for awhile for Sunday night into Monday. Monday will be dry
and mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Expect a cool, clear, and light wind night on Monday night with lows
in the 50s under surface high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

Extended portion features northwest flow aloft through much of the
period. Models try to bring some shortwave energy across the area on
Wednesday. A bit of a surface reflection as well with a weak wave of
low pressure sliding southeast. Will keep low pops in the forecast
for this feature as it moves through the region. Based on QPF output
from models, may be able to increase pops a bit in the near future
if models continue to bring this wave through on Wednesday. After
this system passes through, look for dry conditions again until
perhaps Friday/Saturday.

Given the 850mb temps across the region through the time period,
expect highs to remain on the warm side, with readings generally in
the 80s to low 90s. The highest temps are forecast across south
central SD.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the taf valid period at all
terminals. A developing LLJ will provide for potential LLWS after
sunset at most terminals.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ018>023.

MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ046.



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