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000
FXUS63 KABR 151802 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
102 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AM
CONTEMPLATING AN ADVISORY FOR MIXED PCPN LATE TNT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT AM WAITING FOR LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE DECIDING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE CWA
TODAY VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE EAST...TO THE 60S IN THE WEST. WHILE WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED IF ANY INCREASING LLM THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z. EVEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 0Z WED...VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO LITTLE PCPN IN THIS CWA UNTIL AFTER 6Z. PER THE 12Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE 0Z HI-RES ARW...THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
OCCUR BETWEEN 9-12Z AND ALONG HIGHWAY 212. IT SEEMS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN TONIGHT TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE MINNESOTA
WITH PCPN WRAPPING INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
LIMITED MIXING WINDS AND WITH SOME LEFT OVER LLM...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SEEMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WARMING
TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. A LARGE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RISING THICKNESSES OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
A FEW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...ADDED IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
ONE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 40S EAST AND MID 50S WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BEING AS RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BEFORE TURNING OVER TO SNOW. FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT THE KMBG...KABR...AND KATY TAF
STIES DURING THE TRANSITION. A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING THE KATY TAF SITE...POSSIBLY
THE KABR TAF SITE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR CATEGORIES
UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN