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000
FXUS63 KABR 091128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH HAVE SUFFICIENTLY
ALLOWED WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW
ZERO CATEGORY...AND THEREFORE LET THE HEADLINE RIDE AS EXPECTED
THROUGH NOON.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...AND MODELS SHOW IT QUICKLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS POTENT LITTLE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK BUT
STRONG WARM AIR PUSH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
AFTERNOON. A DECENT INVERSION SETS UP AS THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR
STREAMS OVER THE REGION...AND THIS PROFILE COULD MEAN ENHANCED
WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE
ONSET OF FALLING SNOW...BUT GIVEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
FRESH SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA YESTERDAY...CONTINUED THE BLOWING SNOW
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY /OR UNFORTUNATELY DEPENDING ON PERSPECTIVE/ MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING DURING THE PERIOD OF GREATEST COUPLING OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AND ALL PRECIP WILL BE
POST FRONTAL. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...BUT THE DOWNSIDE
IS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT DO INCREASE RAPIDLY. 0.5
KM WINDS OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS TONIGHT...SO
THE REGION COULD BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...AND THE FACTOR OF BLOWING SNOW...WILL
LET PROCEEDING SHIFTS NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS.

THE COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE CLIPPER IS SHORT LIVED AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES AS
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION HOWEVER. AS THE ARCTIC
AIR SURGES SOUTH APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN DROP INTO THE
WINDCHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE
AREA...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STRONGER WAVE...RESULTING IN
THE ONLY TIME PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
OCCUR.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS WEAK WAA DEVELOPS
ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES BACK IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE TEENS...THEN ANOTHER HINT OF MODERATION
OCCURS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A QUICK MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KATY...KABR AND KMBG
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. AFTER 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN