Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 280016 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THE ONLY THINGS
THAT APPEAR SEMI-CERTAIN IS THAT VFR/MVFR LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIGHT
NOW...AND WILL AFFECT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW FIELD IS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THIS REGION. BEYOND THAT...IT IS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL EMERGE ONCE THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OFF LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE
BACK PEDDLED JUST A BIT ON THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBIES
PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST...AND JUST MENTIONING SOME MVFR FOG AT
KPIR/KMBG LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.