Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 182017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAIN IS FINALLY STARTING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE FEED OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MILLER AREA...THOUGH TO THE WEST AND
NORTH COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE SPOTTY THANKS TO DRY AIR STILL IN
PLACE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL PRECIPITATION OUT OF FSD CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A NARROW AXIS OF ISENTROPIC FORCING LIFTS
THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY INTO THE COTEAU. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
ALSO DEPICTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OUT OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY AM. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL AIMRASS IS MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER TROF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WE WILL ALSO SEE STRONG MIXED DOWN WINDS AND A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE
ALSO VERY STRONG AGAIN FOR MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ECMWF REMAINS THE WETTER
MODEL WHILE THE GFS HAS TAKEN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC
TO HEART AND KEEPS THE ENTIRE TIME LINE DRY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRAW IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...RIGHT AROUND
CLIMO NORMS. BY THU/THU NIGHT ON THE ECMWF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CWA AT THE SFC. THE
ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG A LLJ THU
NIGHT...AND SUPERBLEND KEEPS SOME LOW CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. LOWERED THE SUGGESTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE
MOISTURE FEED IS NOT FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE LIKELY
STORMS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE GFS IS
HOLDING IN THE SFC HIGH AND STAVING OFF ANY RETURN FLOW UNTIL
SATURDAY SO MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEVERELY LACKING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BRIEF AND TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS NEAR KMBG/KATY THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW EXITS SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF BY 9Z AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





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