Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE WY/CO BORDER. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND WITHIN A DRY SLOT. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING N-NW INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
AS FOR THIS CWA...SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CURRENT PCPN
IN EASTERN SD LIFTING INTO ND WITH LITTLE PCPN POSSIBLE BETWEEN
3-9Z. BEYOND 12Z MONDAY...MODELS LACK DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES...THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE
MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PRODUCING STORMS IN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS LIFTING N-NE INTO MINNESOTA
BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD SPREAD DECENT WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A POTENTIAL LLJ WILL
SET UP WED EVENING/NIGHT BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CUTTING OFF THE PRECIP WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. AT THIS TIME THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S WITH THE WARMER SOUTH TO WEST FLOW MID WEEK WILL GIVE WAY
TO 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP ARRIVAL TIMES. MOST OF THE
REGION IS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND KPIR. SITES WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THEN INTO IFR AS THE RAIN BECOMES A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN. AT THE VERY END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE LOW EXITS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



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