Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241705 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1105 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING CWA WIDE.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS MATCH WELL WITH
GOING FORECAST AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE NAM/HRRR...THUS NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH THIS CWA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS STORM
WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID THE GFS IS SHOWING A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA BY 18Z. BASED ON HI-RES
MODELS...THIS COLD PUSH IS AT LEAST 6 HOURS TOO SOON. RELIED UPON
THE HI-RES ARW AND THE RAPID REFRESH FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
TIME PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS BEST BETWEEN 0-3Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP PCPN INTO THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION.

WITH FRESH SNOW COVER...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE
EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS AND WAA TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A DOWN-SLOPE WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
30S...TO THE MID 50S. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA SURPASSES THE 60 DEGREE MARK AS 925 MB TEMPS EXCEED 10C.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN COMPLIMENTARY ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
EVOLUTION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR REX BLOCK AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE FORECAST DOES CHANGE AS UPPER LOW OFF BAHA GETS PICKED UP
AND THRUST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RIDGE WEST AND TROF EAST
REMAINS IN PLACE. BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM THE PATTERN
RETROGRADES A BIT...AND THAT ALLOWS FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE IN BETWEEN PERIODS LOOK
TO CONTINUE THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER WITH
AREAS OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING FOR KABR/KATY...WITH LOWER VSBYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KPIR AND KMBG THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CORSON-
     DEWEY-JONES-STANLEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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