Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 291138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
638 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Issued at 638 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Dry high pressure lingers over the NE, while the rest of the area
is under the influence of the sfc trough over SW SD. NW flow will
continue aloft, allowing off and on weak disturbances to slide
across the region. The one today clips mainly the NE area, where
it`s also drier and more stable and should stay mainly dry. Had a
hard time going above isolated showers/thunderstorms today-tonight
across the rest of the area. The strongest over this short term
period will slide in Thursday, and be associated with a sfc cold
front. Look for the cold front and showers/ts potential to sink
mainly S of the CWA by around 12Z Thursday. Later shifts may be able
to further diminish the potential for lingering precip late Thursday
morning over S portions of our CWA. Not expecting widespread
convection with the cold front. Look for temperatures to fall back
down into the 70s behind the front for Thursday and Friday. The
large sfc high over S Manitoba Thursday afternoon will sink overhead
and across much of MN by Friday afternoon. Mainly dry weather is
expected Thursday afternoon through most of Friday, although
showers could sneak in W river in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

The long term continues to look to be active across our region with
broad upper level low pressure troughing across Canada for most of
the period along with broad high pressure aloft across the southern
U.S. This will put our region in persistent west to southwest flow
with one short wave trough after another coming over our region.
With these hard to time and fast moving waves, difficult to pin down
any one day that would not have a chance of showers/storms. Thus,
all periods contain some chances of precip. Otherwise, with the
heights rising some through the long term, expect temperatures to
warm some with upper 80s to the lower 90s across the cwa by Monday
and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Vfr conditions are expected for all locations through today and
tonight with light winds. Some isolated thunderstorms are also
expected through tonight and are not expected to affect the taf


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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