Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280922
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE TROF CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS AM...WITH A LINE OF STORMS TO
THE EAST. AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST...PRESSURE RISES INCREASE
WEST RIVER TO 6 TO 8MB/6HRS AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES. LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WHICH WILL HELP
GENERATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
MIXED WINDS ARE CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA FOR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA WEST OF KABR/NORTH OF
KPIR. THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THERMAL
ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL...ALTHOUGH MIXED DOWN WINDS PICK BACK UP
AROUND 20 TO 30MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES WEDNESDAY AM...BUT
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY...WITH READINGS BACK AROUND 90
BY THURSDAY...THOUGH AT LEAST HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY QUIET. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THAT ACTIVITY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF MOST TAFS
FOR NOW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
     /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003>007-009-010-015>017-033>036.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK



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