Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR





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