Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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962
FXUS63 KABR 242330 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The overall weather situation will start to calm down quite a bit
over the next couple days. Sfc cold front currently along the SD/MN
border will continue to slowly move east tonight as the sfc low
tracks northeast into northern MN. Any decent thunderstorm
activity this aftn/evening should be near or ahead of that
feature. Behind the front, drier air will continue to filter
southeast over the region. The drier low level air is helping to
shred the leftover baroclinic north/south rain band across the
region. We should continue to see that band of rain shrink as it
moves east through the rest of the daylight hours.

Overnight, am not expecting too much in the way of pcpn, but another
batch of rain may clip mainly the southeast CWA. A better chance
of more light rain will enter the picture for late Monday and
Monday night as an upper low over Utah lifts northeast across the
far Northern Plains. Temperatures through Monday will remain
cooler than normal during the day given expansive cloud cover.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The weak upper low parked over the southwest United States will
pull out across the northern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This will bring a chance of showers to mostly the eastern areas
Tuesday night. After the upper low exits, NW flow aloft will
prevail with temps a bit below seasonal. Temps will moderate as we
get into next weekend. Models are showing the upper ridge over
the western CONUS to shift over the area on Friday and remain over
the weekend. Except for a weak frontal passage Thursday, most of
extended forecast looks dry.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Precipitation has pretty much ended across the area, with maybe
just a light shower or sprinkle still possible across the east.
IFR/MVFR cigs will remain over the entire area tonight and through
the day Monday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Parkin



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