Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250526 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 1225 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 832 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Forecast in general looks good. Temperatures have fallen off fast
over the northeast corner of the CWA, but those should steady out
shortly as LLJ spreads east. No major updates planned this


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Forecast challenges involve timing/placement and amounts of
precipitation on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Currently, with skies partly cloudy and winds out of the southeast
at 10 to 25 mph with some higher gusts, temperatures are warming
through the 50s and 60s.

Low pressure energy out over the southwest U.S. coast will be
sweeping northeastward through the region tomorrow, with
precipitation chances developing by early Tuesday morning and really
ramping up across the eastern third of South Dakota by Tuesday
afternoon. There could be some drizzle/fog around prior to
precipitation onset wherever stratus ends up developing/lifting
northward into the cwa on Tuesday.

Dry conditions should ensue for Wednesday/Wednesday night once this
area of low pressure moves east early in the day on Wednesday. Model
soundings in BUFKIT suggest there could be some lingering stratus
around to start things off Wednesday. But, not a whole lot of strong
northwest wind noted behind this system. In fact, winds go light and
variable by Wednesday evening and with a bounty of low level
moisture still remaining around, went ahead and introduced some fog
mention across fog-favored areas of the cwa for late Wednesday night.

Temperatures are not going to sway much with plenty of clouds around
for the next couple of days. Low level waa overnight tonight into
Tuesday will help keep temperatures from falling off too much
tonight. Will probably see a non-diurnal trend developing by late

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Thursday starts off with good model agreement in bringing warm air
advection and upper level ridging into the region. 850mb temps warm
well into the teens Celsius by 00Z Friday, which will translate to
above normal temperatures. Increased temps a tad above SuperBlend
which seemed appropriate in this type of a situation. Models are
then showing a cooling trend again into the weekend with highs back
down to near or even below normal in some cases. As for
precipitation chances, things look dry pretty much through the
entire period. Only exception is on Saturday when the EC shows weak
shortwave energy sliding across the Dakotas. This may generate some
light precipitation for northern areas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Cigs will gradually lower overnight and through Tuesday morning.
MVFR cigs are expected by afternoon for mainly KABR/KATY, along
with scattered rain showers. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon at KATY, but for now will leave out of the terminal
forecast given fair amount of uncertainty.




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