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000
FXUS63 KABR 040216 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
816 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ND AND CUTTING THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN SD CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME QUICK MOVING LIGHT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS...MAINLY TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS WAVE
IS ALSO BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE CWA WHICH IS CAUSING
SOME CONCERNS REGARDING HOW THEY MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST. FOR NOW MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS BECAUSE SATELLITE STILL
SHOWS SOME GAPS IN CLOUD COVERAGE BEHIND THE WAVE.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ONE SYSTEM LEAVING THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON HEADING EAST.
RADARS SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES IN ADVANCE OF IT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOWN ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
PRECIPITATION REPORTED WITH IT THUS FAR. SEVERAL MODELS STILL
INDICATE SOME QPF ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE
EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WAA WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NORTH OF A
MOBRIDGE...REDFIELD AND WATERTOWN LINE. COULD BE A DECENT BAND OF
SNOW SETUP WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP. THINKING
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT TIME POINT. THIS WILL MOVE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LIGHT SNOW ENDING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY
WILL WINDS TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
THUS...AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. BASED ON VERIFICATION
AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF MODEL
OUTPUT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS SHOWN TO REACH THIS CWA CLOSER TO 0Z
FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OVER ALLBLEND WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THANKS TO
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FOR BOTH DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE 40S
AND 50S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL MOVE THROUGH KATY IN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE
QUICKLY CLEARING OUT. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS
FOR A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR RANGE LATER NIGHT. A FAIRLY
STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID
MORNING FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG AND KABR. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
REACH KATY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN