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000
FXUS63 KABR 232347 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Cool and breezy conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper
trough sits over the region. For the most part, dry conditions are
also expected except across far northeast SD and west central MN.
Shortwave energy will move through the trough, providing enough lift
to set off a few light showers in this area Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be well below average with lows in the 40s tonight
and highs struggling to climb into the mid 60s across the east on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The upper flow through the next few days will be mainly
northwesterly with a trough to the east and a slowly eastward
migrating ridge to our west. NAM BUFKIT profiles are mainly dry
initially despite a weak wave passing across our northeast early
Sunday morning. 850mb temperatures will have already bottomed out at
this point as well. Looking at mainly dry conditions with slow
moving high pressure to our south blocking us from gulf moisture and
keeping the low level flow out of Canada which will also result in
below average temperatures.

As the high slides east, we will see an increasing east west
gradient across the state with strong southerly 850mb flow between
25 to 35kts Tuesday and 40-50kts overnight with a low level jet.
Therefore, increased winds above blended guidance by about 10kts as
GFS BUFKIT profiles support mixed winds in the mid 20 to mid 30kt
range. This low level jet will also support elevated convection
overnight. A surface front will pass through the area early
Wednesday according to current model consensus, with additional
thunderstorm chances.

The upper flow diverges between deterministic guidance thereafter as
an upper low breaks the ridge and we move to straight zonal flow.
This may continue to be an active pattern but given uncertainty will
stick with mainly blended POPs Wed PM - Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions will remain through tonight and Saturday for all
locations. Breezy northwest winds this evening will fall off and
then pick up again on Saturday morning to 15 to 25 knots.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr