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000
FXUS63 KABR 142025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

INSTABILITY INCREASES SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BUT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER ON WED SO FIRE WEATHER IS LESS OF A CONCERN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. A LEE SIDE LOW
WILL SET UP AND A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES
ON THU. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD A WET TREND WHICH HAS BEEN
AFFECTING QPF OUTPUT AND INSTABILITY INDICES...AND THURSDAY IS TOO
FAR OUT TO GAIN ANY INSIGHT FROM HI-RES MODELS WHICH HAVE BEHAVED
BETTER. GUT FEELING IS THAT IT WILL STILL BE TOO DRY AT THE LOWER
LEVELS FOR THIS ADDED ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TO GET ANYTHING GOING.
BUT FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES LEFT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FOR TSTORM POTENTIAL DAYTIME THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIP.
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE HELPED
SATURATE THE AREA A BIT MORE. A NOCTURNAL JET AROUND 40 KTS SETS
UP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA LATE THU NIGHT AS WELL...POTENTIALLY
HELPING TO KICK OFF SOME STORMS.




.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD MODELS DIVERGE SOME
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHERE THE GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE WHOLE SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE AROUND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/EASTERN
WYOMING/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S...AND LIKEWISE ML CAPE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS
WAY NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THE EXACT PLACEMENT WILL
CERTAINLY AFFECT WHERE AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP...BUT MODELS DO
SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA BY
00Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ORIENTED ALONG
OUR NORTHERN CWA...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES EASTWARD AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
SATURDAY THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SITUATED NORTH OF OUR
CWA...BUT STILL A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS PLENTY OF SUPPORTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE DAY 5
OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH LIKELY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER
     VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DAY-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN