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000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN