Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
321 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Just a few areas of cloud cover still lingering over the eastern
part of the CWA this afternoon as high pressure is now pushing in
from the west/northwest. This 1036+ high will settle in over the
state overnight, with skies completely clearing and winds
diminishing to 5 to 7 MPH. With the new snow cover over pretty much
the entire area and temperatures only starting off in the 8 to 13
degree range this afternoon, this looks to be a good set up for very
cold temperatures and wind chills tonight. Guidance values looked a
bit warm, so did go about 2-4 degrees colder. By 10 pm or so, wind
chill values should reach advisory criteria, and remain that way
through mid morning Wednesday, therefore have issued a Wind Chill
Advisory from 04Z to 15Z. High temperatures on Wednesday should
rebound back into the teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Surface high pressure will be moving off to the east Wednesday
night, which allows for south to southeast winds to move into the
region in a weak warm air advection pattern. As expected, this makes
the overnight low forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning
rather tricky as we balance the deepening snow pack with increasing
southerly winds and weak warm air advection.

Next area of interest will be the shortwave energy moving northeast
across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Pretty decent model
agreement suggesting the eastern CWA will see snowfall, so have
increased POPs above SuperBlend. For right now, it still appears
accumulations will be fairly minor with only a couple inches
expected, and wind does not appear to be a factor either. Surface
high pressure will then follow this system, which will dry things

As for temperatures, it appears most areas will be in the 20s
throughout the period, with maybe some low 30s popping up. That may
be a bit difficult though with the current snow pack across the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

An area of MVFR cigs across the far eastern CWA will slide
eastward through the early afternoon hours. Once these clouds exit
the area, VFR conditions will then prevail through midday


SD...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening to 10
     AM CST /9 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for MNZ039-046.



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