Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280818
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN
BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. THE
EASTERN CWA IS MOSTLY DRY CURRENTLY...BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
AND HAVE SEEN SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TRENDS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN SD. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK...BUT IF
CLEARING SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST SOILS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PULLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY FAIR
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY ACTUALLY STAY DRY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO SUDDEN JUMPS NORTHWARD IN THE LOW
TRACK. HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONFINED THINGS TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY TAKE A BREAK...IF ONLY
FOR A FEW DAYS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHEARING ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A
MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND END INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH
REMAINS HIGH. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ABR AND MBG LATER IN THE
DAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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