Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192327 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Issued at 624 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The main concern in the short term continues to be the heat
affecting the region. Temperatures will top out in the 90s to lower
100s and only fall into the upper 60s to 70s overnight. Forecast
highs for Wednesday will be the hottest with actual temps ranging
from upper 90s in the east to around 105 across central SD. Winds
will also be lighter on Wednesday.

A sfc low will work its way across the Dakotas on Wednesday and
Thursday. H7 temps ranging from +15 to +18 will prevent any
convective development on Wed. Overall, the short term is simply dry
and hot. The excessive heat warning remains in effect, expanding to
include the eastern counties on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with the last, hot and
humid day across the region. High temperatures on Friday will likely
warm into the 90s and 100 degrees. Sometime Friday afternoon, or
more likely Friday night, a strong cold front and upper level
shortwave will track across North Dakota. This system should break
the cap with thunderstorms possible, especially for northeast SD and
western MN. Much cooler and less humid conditions will filter into
the region on the back side of this system with temperatures near
normal for the weekend. The weather pattern becomes active beyond
the weekend with several chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Based on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, Superblend`s pops look good early
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Wednesday.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday for

MN...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday for



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