Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
339 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Surface high pressure is over the region early this morning with
light winds and patches of clouds across the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Currently watching an area of stratus moving southward over the
Glacial Lakes area and into west central MN. There is generally some
light fog, with areas of thicker fog under and near the edges of the
stratus. Have inserted fog into the forecast for this area through
the morning hours.

For later today, high pressure moves east with light southerly winds
developing. 925 mb temps are even warmer than what they were
yesterday, and we saw temps get rather mild on Saturday. Have
therefore raised today`s highs a few degrees, using yesterday`s
highs and 925 mb temps as a gauge in determining highs. Sided
towards the warmer end of guidance, such as MAV.

Looking pretty mild on Monday as well, as the lower levels warm a
bit more. Models suggest an area of stratus will slide up eastern SD
during the morning hours, perhaps lingering into the afternoon for
far eastern areas. Will have to watch this feature as it will have
an effect on highs over the eastern CWA. SuperBlend appeared too
cool for highs on Monday, so increased temps across the board, but
was a bit conservative for eastern areas where stratus could be a

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

The upper level flow will be fairly progressive during the extended
period, with one shortwave trough moving through Tuesday night and
another on Friday. Otherwise, ridging will dominate.

At the surface, the period starts off with the region situated
between high pressure to the east and a low pressure trough over the
Rockies. The low and associated frontal boundary will track across
the CWA late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Moisture is fairly
limited, so expect it will move through dry. High pressure slides
across the area Wednesday before another low and frontal boundary
look to slide through Thursday night into Friday. With this system
moving through in conjunction with the stronger shortwave aloft, will
likely see a better chance for rain/snow during this time. High
pressure then settles back in Friday night and Saturday.

Temperatures will be fairly mild through the period. The warmest
days will be Tuesday and Thursday, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Wednesday, Friday and Saturday will be a bit cooler, with highs
mainly in the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s
will be common.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

IFR fog will develop around KATY overnight and linger through the
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions and light winds are expected.




LONG TERM...Parkin
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