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000
FXUS63 KABR 011011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE THE REGION. VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE
1 TO 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. NO OFFICIAL SNOW REPORTS THIS MORNING...BUT THE
AREA TO POTENTIALLY SEE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA. LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL
REPORTS COME IN THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS MUCH DRIER ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
THIS MORNING ALSO REMAIN GUSTY...AND WIND CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM
TEN BELOW TO TWENTY BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO DID FORGO ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES. ONE OR TWO
LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY HIT THE TWENTY FIVE BELOW WIND CHILL
CRITERIA THIS MORNING HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW TEENS TODAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...BECOMING SITUATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DUSTING OF FRESH SNOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AND IF ANYTHING...THIS
FORECAST MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

A VERY COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS FEATURE. THE OTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE TUESDAY...ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...WITH
JUST A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LOW FINALLY DROPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN PLACE...THEN WILL SEE WAA DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON
WEDNESDAY...IN THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY ARE STILL VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY
DEVELOP AT THESE TWO TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...OR THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/EAST WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO REDUCE SNOW MENTION TO A TEMPO
GROUP. SNOW START TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 07Z AND
10Z AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SUNDAY...WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING
AROUND TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

KMBG IS CLOSE TO TRANSITIONING TO SUB-VFR IN LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL APPX 12Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
CLEAR OFF AND RETURN TO VFR. KPIR IS MVFR AND SHOULD BE INTO SOME
LIGHT SNOW /IFR VISBIES/ BY APPX 07Z...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OFF AND RETURN TO VFR. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING AROUND TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUFFALO-
     JONES-LYMAN.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN