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000
FXUS63 KABR 110548 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1248 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST CHALLENGING.
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
TNT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO THE
CWA. A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUCH AS CARIBOU/BUFKIT SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH DUE TO RELATIVELY MILD SFC
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER STRONG UVM PER FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA PROS
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS...MAKING FORECAST DIFFICULT. PLUS THE CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL POST MIDNIGHT...OR EVEN
CLOSER TO 12Z FOR SOME SOUTHERN LOCALES. SO...DETERMINING SNOW
AMOUNT ITS QUITE DIFFICULT. DECIDED TO STICK WITH WWD FORECAST
SINCE IT DOES SEEM TO BE A NICE BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. BUT
FUTURE HI RES MODEL DATA SUCH AS THE HRRR/RAP WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BAND POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
PUT CORSON/DEWEY IN AN ADVISORY GIVEN THE FORECAST OF UP TO 3 OR
SO INCHES FOR THAT AREA. UVM DOES APPEAR TO FRAGMENT/WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ESE ACROSS CWA LATE TNT AND TUESDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY COUNTIES FURTHER EAST IN ADVISORY THINKING SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY MUCH DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOME FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN THURSDAY.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW TO OUR CWA. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY 09Z OR SO. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY FOR A HEAVIER BAND
OF SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
DOES EXIST. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A
HEAVIER BAND DEVELOPS. THE SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND MIDDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN