Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281749 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1033 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

A few light showers remain in the east late this morning and
should be dissipating by noon as the upper level low pressure area
moves east. Otherwise, skies will be/become mostly sunny over the
entire region with highs in the upper 70s to the upper 80s.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

With the upper wave essentially overhead, the majority of convection
has moved away from the CWA with only a few isolated cells lingering
overhead. The low level jet and strong southerly flow persists along
and east of the James valley, while to the west, northwest winds
have developed out ahead of weak high pressure. NAM BUFKIT profiles
remain marginally unstable across the east this morning, so will
maintain some low end pops, while to the west, shortwave ridging
will stabilize the atmosphere.

There will be two more 500mb waves of note during the short term
period, with one moving in tonight west river and into
central/northeast South Dakota Thursday. MLCAPE values are only on
the order of a few hundred j/kg, with mainly skinny CAPE within NAM
BUFKIT profiles. This weakly unstable atmosphere will provide the
environment for thunderstorms, but unlikely to produce any severe
weather, though it is important to note that 0-6km shear is close to
50kts with a 60-70kt jet streak moving overhead.

The last wave will round the upper low that moves across southern
Canada Friday, with again weak/skinny CAPE and less than 20kts of
wind across most of the profile.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

An upper level shortwave will slide east of the region Friday night,
with northwest flow then setting up through the day Monday before
ridging builds over the Northern Plains. After the possibility of a
few lingering showers and thunderstorms on the back side of an
exiting low pressure system Friday night, surface high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern through the day Sunday. May see more
shower and thunderstorm development late Sunday afternoon into early
Monday as low pressure tracks across the Central Plains, though best
chances will be south of the CWA. High pressure and dry conditions
return Monday afternoon through the end of the period.

Below normal high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s Saturday
and Sunday will give way to a warming trend, with highs in the 80s
Monday and in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday.  Overnight lows will
be in the 50s early in the period, and in the 60s during the latter
half of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all locations through tonight and
Thursday with some mixing layer cu clouds into the early evening.
Otherwise, the next upper low pressure trough moving in from the
west will spread another round of showers and storms into the
western part of the region later tonight. These could affect both
MBG and PIR at or in the vicinity.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr



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