Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 221746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. STILL COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST
CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE DRY UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALL OF THIS IS ALREADY DEPICTED WELL IN THE FORECAST.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
JUST A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVER THE CWA. TEMPS ARE FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S WITH ABR JUST NOW FALLING TO 39 DEGREES. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL
STAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING PRECIP IN THE GRIDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY SO LOOKING
AT GENERAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE STILL LINGERS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE ADDITION OF PRECIP MENTION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
FOR NOW FORECAST IS DRY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON SUNDAY. A REGIME CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. HOWEVER THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER WITH THE
SHIFT THAN THE ECMWF AND DIFFERENT PRECIP FORECASTS REFLECT THAT.
TRIED TO TREND THE INITIAL ALLBLEND POPS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AS
THESE REGIME CHANGES ARE NOTORIOUSLY SLOWER THAN PROGGED.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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