Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 282006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Main issue in the short range will be pcpn/convection. For tonight
already have storms forming over the front range of the Rockies.
Those storms may consolidate into an MCS and track e/se toward
western/northern Nebraska overnight. Some models still maintain
convection over parts of the ABR CWA later this evening and
overnight due to weak WAA.  Just how far to bring this activity east
is the question. Airmass over the eastern CWA is quite stable and
suspect any activity that makes it east of the Missouri River
valley will have a tough time getting all the way to the James
Valley. On Wednesday forecast confidence is quite low.  There is a
weak wave forecast to clip the northeast CWA, and some models do
crank out afternoon pcpn despite relatively stable airmass. For
Wednesday night into Thursday a stronger wave off to the east will
force a frontal boundary to slide south over the forecast area. Once
again models look pretty pathetic concerning convergence along that
boundary with little to no LLJ forecast.  Behind the front a dry and
mild surface high will build across the region with tranquil
conditions expected for 24 to 36 hours.  Temperatures will trend
from near normal on Wednesday, to near or slightly below normal for
the rest of the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

An active weather pattern is expected through the long term portion
of the forecast. A series of shortwaves will traverse across the
region with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS
is more aggressive with shortwaves and thus wetter than the ECMWF.
While there are pops in every period in the extended...the Holiday
weekend will not be a total washout. Even with the active pattern,
temperatures will average above normal through the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the region through the valid
taf period. Showers/storms developing later this evening may
affect PIR and MBG.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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