Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210935
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

WHILE WE ARE SEEING RETURNS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...CIGS ARE
AROUND 10KFT WITH DRY AIR BELOW. FOG IS ALSO HIT AND MISS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITY AROUND THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION WHERE LOW CIGS INTERSECT THE GROUND.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
OVERHEAD AND THEN DEEPENING JUST TO THE EAST. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...NOT SURPRISED AT THE EXPECTED TRANSITION THROUGH A
MYRIAD OF PTYPES FROM RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING
DRIZZLE...TO RAIN AND SNOW...TO ALL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
INITIALLY WILL SEE EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE FAR
EAST MAY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHEN THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SCALE
LIFT INTERACTS WITH OUR PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. EVEN WITH H85 TEMPS
COOLING MONDAY AM...REMOVING THE MELTING LAYER...MAY STILL SEE
ISSUES WITH SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WE WILL
ALSO SEE A DRY SLOT DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST/WESTERN MINNESOTA TO
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...WITH H85 WINDS INCREASING TO
40-50KTS...AND WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 20G30KTS. WRAP AROUND QPF WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS DEPARTING TUESDAY...A
LITTLE DIABATIC HEATING WILL INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE IN THE
PROFILES RESULTING IN STRAGGLING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

ONCE AGAIN TNT ONLY MIDDLING AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.
ONE STORM/TROF IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE NEXT
BATCH OF ENERGY IS POISED TO MOVE ON SHORE THE WEST COAST AND HEAD
SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME PCPN TO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN STREAKING
PCPN OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THAT TIME...BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL WILL FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS...VSBYS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR IN FOG...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF
IFR VSBYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AFFECTING KABR AND KATY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT KPIR COULD SEE SOME IFR VSBY IN FOG TOWARD MORNING AGAIN.







&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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