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000
FXUS63 KABR 192336 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
WARM...WITH AN EXPECTED COOL OFF AFTER SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
WEAK LIFT AND SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
BACK IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CWA.

WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL THEN SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ON MONDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDING ON TUESDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AS A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH NEARS THE ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOW MANY
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF STILL THE FASTER AND FURTHEST NORTH
SOLUTION AS COMPARED THE GFS/GEM. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY UNDER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EITHER CLOSING OFF AND OCCLUDING OVER
THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE GFS/GEM WOULD SUGGEST...OR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE THAT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE
BECOMING STACKED AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY
MANIFESTS ITSELF IN CONTINUOUS POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.




&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THIS WAVE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN