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000
FXUS63 KABR 081649 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. MADE A FEW MINOR
CHANGES...MAINLY TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
CWA WERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHING OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WYOMING AND
INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...JUST NOW REACHING AS FAR
NORTH AS KABR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ALSO MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
THIS WEAK LIFT WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS MORNING. STILL THINKING AN INCH OR JUST SLIGHTLY OVER
AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES IN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO AGAIN
EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TWENTY FIVE BELOW TO
THIRTY BELOW ZERO RANGE AND ISSUED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS
THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SECONDARY QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF...BUT SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT IN WIND ACROSS THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH THE SOUTHWEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION WINDS...BUT WINDS QUICKLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA. ZONAL
FLOW THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. A COUPLE MORE CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD...ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH THESE SYSTEMS REMAINING TO THE NORTH...HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DRY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
WILL THEN SEE A BIT OF A WARM UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN