Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 262026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN QPF FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWEST WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. THUS...TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND
AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THE ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW VARIOUS DEGREES OF QPF ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST OF ALL THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CWA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH LIFT...INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THUS DONT EXPECT MUCH FOR RAINFALL. THE EC
WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO HOLD ON WITH SOME QPF ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...LEFT IT DRY. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
EC IS CORRECT...MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE FAR EAST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES...OR JUST A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
WHILE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION IS LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SKIES MAY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR. THE CLEAR SKIES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOW END VFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD






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