Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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