Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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351
FXUS63 KABR 210543 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1143 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 932 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Continuing to monitor hydro concerns this evening. The Maple River
near Frederick is now up to action stage. As for the tonight
period, only minor changes appear to be necessary. Fog potential
overnight appears to be confined to extreme northeast South Dakota
over into Minnesota. Temperatures are running a solid 5 to 15
degrees cooler right now than at this time last night, and cooler
temperatures are forecast for lows tonight. Did nudge James River
valley temperatures down a few more degrees, since current
temperature at KABR is just a couple of degrees off the forecast
low there. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 715 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Hydrology issues are taking the top headline at the moment, as the
James River near Columbia has risen to flood stage, and is
expected to continue a steady climb to around 13.5 feet by Tuesday
evening. See FLWABR for the latest details. Also, the Maple River
near Frederick continues to climb and is approximately a half foot
from action stage. Over in Hamlin County, the Big Sioux River is
at action stage near Castlewood, with the river said to be out of
its banks downstream near Estelline spilling over a little bit
into adjacent farmland. Will continue to closely monitor that
situation over the next 24 hours. Lake Poinsett is also above
action stage and appears to still be slowly climbing. The White
River near White River which has been experiencing ice jam
flooding has fallen to below flood stage, but continues in action
stage. Will be extending the areal flood advisory for Jones/Lyman
counties through Tuesday.

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Light rain showers continue to quickly diminish east of a line from
ABR to HON. There have been some temporary gusts of 20-25kts behind
this feature, but overall stronger winds have been pretty limited.
The sfc trough that brought us this rain has shifted into western
MN. The next trough is set up across MT, and will move over our area
during the day Tuesday.

Fog will be possible again tonight, mainly over the favored ATY area
and across our northeast where precipitation amounts of 0.10-0.20
inches fell.  30s will be common tonight. With a southerly downslope
gust picking up late tonight near 8D3, expect temperatures to stay
up in the upper 30s. These downslope winds will likely continue
through the morning hours Tuesday. Dry weather will be the rule
through Tuesday. No more PW values of near 1 inch.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

One more day of much above normal temperatures on Wednesday with
temperatures from 15 to 25 degrees above normal then back to near to
below normal for the rest of the long term. A couple short wave
troughs coming across the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday
evening will bring mainly chances of light rain across the northern
CWA. The models continue to have the Thursday through Friday surface
low pressure system mainly staying south of our region. The Canadian
had the furtherest north and slowest track. The EC was the quickest
with the system. Thus, the best chances of precipitation remain
across our far southern CWA south of a line from Pierre to
Watertown. Cooler northwest flow aloft prevails through the rest of
the long term into Monday across the CWA with mainly high pressure
at the surface. A few weak upper level troughs and surface fronts
coming across the region from the northwest may bring some small
chances of light snow. At this time left it dry until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Conditions are VFR right now, and skies are clear to partly
cloudy. Winds have become light and variable or picked up a light
southerly direction and speed. Guidance is still by and large fog
free. The latest wrinkle is the possibility of some patchy dense
fog. The temp/dewpoint spread has fallen to 1 to 3 degrees at KABR
and KATY and there have been hints of perhaps some light fog
trying to develop at/near these two terminals, so did introduce a
temporary 2sm IFR visby in fog late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24
hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn



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