Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
252 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Temperatures/winds/pcpn all factor into forecast challenges through
Saturday. For tonight through Friday the southerly winds will
continue to usher in increasing warmth and llm.  The higher
dewpoints should effectively limit fire danger on Friday, despite
heftier winds. The increased moisture should also lead to an
increasing chance for weak/elevated convection Friday night as LLJ
cranks up a head of advancing frontal boundary, especially over the
eastern cwa. Front moves east of the cwa Saturday morning, with
cooler air flowing in behind the boundary. However, on Friday in
advance of the front, it should again get quite mild with
temperatures well into the 70s, to around 80 or so for some
locations. LL thermal progs have backed off a bit from previous
runs, but still feel that going forecast is pretty close and didn`t
change much. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler, but still
above normal for most locations across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Will open with an upper trough/departing shortwave over the central
CONUS, moving east with zonal flow in its wake. A secondary wave
will deepen the upper trough overhead Monday/Tuesday. That will be
followed by a high amplitude upper ridge that is fairly progressive,
with another upper trough diving into the region for Thursday. While
we do see several waves, none feature much of a change for moisture.
However, through next week we should see at least two frontal
passages. The result will be the typical northern plains thermal
roller coaster ride. Low level flow is westerly Saturday night with
warm advection leading into Sunday. Mixed winds in BUFKIT with deep
(for this time of year) mixing (to around 800mb) will result in
mild/breezy conditions, though it remains uncertain if we will fully
realize the stronger winds aloft thanks to warm advection. A front
moving through Monday will result in temperatures dropping off
slightly and strong northwest winds. The coldest air looks to glance
the region, with another surge in mild air for mid week. That will
be followed by another front and more substantial temperature drop
late in the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the valid taf period, along
with occasionally gusty winds, especially at katy, kabr. LLWS is
possible overnight given strengthening winds aloft.




LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.