Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 011727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES PLANNED THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...AND
LIKEWISE DID BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO BECAUSE OF LESS CLOUD
COVER AND GOOD MIXING WINDS. ALL OTHER FIELDS APPEAR ON TRACK.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION TODAY LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID...A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AROUND MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA...WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THIS CWA WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FRONT. MUCH STRONGER WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED IS JUST HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS COLDEST AIR YET CRASHING IN
BEHIND EXITING LOW. BY 06Z SATURDAY...NAM/GFS AND EC SHOW 850-700HPA
THICKNESS VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1512-1520...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. THAT SAID...ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WAA
BEGINNING BY 12Z SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS...WITH SFC TO 700MB LAYERS LINKED. WILL MIXING PLAY A ROLE
IN LOWS? LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW TEMP SPREAD OF 22 TO
27 DEGREES WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE LOW MEMBER AT 22. EC
925HPA TEMPS 12Z SATURDAY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WHICH IN
THIS CASE MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FROST AND FREEZE.
SUPERBLEND VALUES SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND LEFT
ALONE.

OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN RATHER QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NW FLOW
DOMINATING THINGS AT 500MB. MINOR WAVES RUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT DIFFICULT TO HANG ANYTHING BUT PASSING CLOUDS ON THEM
ATTM. TEMPS TRY TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDS SET TO TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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