Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 301727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Updated 18z aviation discussion below.

The current forecast looks good overall. The only change was to
increase winds through the rest of the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Much more stable air will be sliding in this afternoon, and reside
over the region through early Saturday. The sfc high over central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba early this morning will slowly sink in behind
the cold front currently stretching across northern MN through
northern SD. Mainly seeing just mid clouds associated with this
boundary so far, although isolated showers are also around. Some of
the smaller scale models do indicate an expansion of these showers
shortly after daybreak, with isolated-scattered showers still
sinking across the ABR forecast area through the late morning hours.
Will continue to go on the drier side with the precip fcst for
today. Did increase winds slightly for this afternoon, out of the
north around 15kts.

The sfc high will sink across eastern ND/northwestern MN Friday
morning, before moving over MN Friday afternoon. With the ridge
still extending back across much of our area, am not too excited
about the chances for thunderstorms, or even showers, Friday
afternoon over the west. Mainly dry ESE winds will be feeding this
area. The best chance of precip through Saturday will be to our
west, as the next sfc trough sets up over E MT through WY. Along
with the increasing SE winds will be slowly increasing high
temperatures through the start of the weekend. Highs will be around
80F Saturday as 850MB temps rise to 15-20C by the end of the day,
highest west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

The long term shows upper level troughing deepening along the west
coast while upper level ridging dominates the central part of the
U.S. This will result in many short waves coming off the western
trough and across our region from Saturday night through Wednesday.
There should be no issue with instability and wind shear across our
region during this time with persistent south winds at the surface
bringing in good moisture along with west winds aloft. The main
issue with these waves will be that some may track too far north of
our region and/or not be able to overcome the mid level warmth that
will be in place for several times during the long term.
Nevertheless, believe there will be at least a couple MCS` making
their way across our region throughout the long term. Otherwise,
temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and lower 90s through the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

High pressure will keep sky conditions vfr today and tonight.
Winds will generally be below 15 kts.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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