Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 231732 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1232 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 931 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

No changes planned to the forecast today. Current gridded package
is doing fine.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level low moving
southward across MN. Scattered light showers persist across the
eastern CWA, with more activity upstream moving southwest across the
Red River valley. Expecting this activity to move into the eastern
CWA over the next several hours. As the upper low moves southward
today, best chance for light showers will continue to be across the
east as models indicate. Amounts will be light. Rather chilly air
aloft with this system as well, and it appears highs will be stuck
in the 50s today under mostly cloudy skies. Breezy north winds will
also keep conditions feeling cool.

This system moves out by tonight, with surface high pressure
building in. Winds will go light and depending on how much clearing
we see, temperatures will get rather chilly. Will have to monitor
for possible frost headlines if conditions appear to warrant. Will
be watching cloud cover trends through the day. Dropped lows a
couple degrees and now have readings in the upper 30s for many
areas. Inserted some patchy frost into the grids for now as
conditions could certainly support this.

Temperatures begin to moderate on Wednesday as upper level ridging
begins to build across the Dakotas and 925/850 mb temps begin to
rise. Highs will rebound into the 60s to around 70 degrees. By
Wednesday night, a surface trough will move into central SD, with
chances for showers.

Thursday is looking mild with potential for good mixing, although
GFS is a bit more bullish with surface winds compared to other
models. Should be able to see highs rise into the lower 70s as
surface trough continues pushing eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper level low will spin over central Canada early in the
period, with shortwave energy tracking across the CWA. The main low
center will drop southward over the area Sunday night and Monday
before sliding east of the region, keeping northwest flow in place
Monday night.

At the surface, a frontal boundary extending between low pressure
systems over central Canada and northern Texas will be over the
eastern CWA Thursday evening, then pushes east overnight. Weak high
pressure noses in from the northwest on Friday, until the low
pressure system to the north begins to drop southward. This system
looks to bring precipitation chances to the region Saturday through
Monday, with high pressure moving back in Monday night.

Temperatures will be right around normal, with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Mainly MVFR cigs will persist across the KABR/KATY terminals
through early this evening, before conditions begin to improve.
VFR conditions should prevail at KPIR and KMBG over the next 24
hours. Isolated/widely scattered light rain showers will also
continue to rotate southward through the region, mainly impacting
KPIR/KABR and KATY with brief shots of light rainfall through late
this afternoon/early this evening before precipitation chances
terminate. Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight at
KPIR and KMBG, while KABR and KATY may clear out for all or a
portion of tonight. There is some indication in the short-range
guidance for the potential for some low clouds to work back into
the KATY terminal at or shortly after sunrise on Wednesday. Lesser
chances of seeing that occur at KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn



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