Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 222022
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...YIELDING A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN LESS AND LESS QPF WITH EACH RUN...WITH THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA
THE ONLY LOCATION IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT MAY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY...WITH MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
WEEKEND.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC ECMWF, 12 UTC
GFS/NAM) HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ENTERING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BISMARCK CWA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS LINTON...NAPOLEON AND
EDGELEY...WITH BETTER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US WARM
AND DRY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST LATE THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED (5+ DAYS)
AS THE MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO THIS LONG WAVE FEATURE.
SOME MODELS HAVE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING WHILE OTHERS HAVE AN
OPEN WAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSING NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE
PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION...BUT THEY WOULD VARY
GREATLY IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WENT AHEAD WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOULD IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS
MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT KDIK-KBIS-KJMS TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD














USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.