Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 021854
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
154 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS AND SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY/POPS BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY. WE CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONGESTED CUMULUS TRYING TO
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. WE DID
RELEASE A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TO GET A BETTER IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN BUMPED UP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE PIX.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

REMNANTS ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A REGENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNDERPERFORMED
WITH THEIR OUTPUT. ABOUT THE BEST VERIFYING MODEL IS THE NAM12
WHICH EXCELLENTLY DEPICTED THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEAKENING TO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN. THE NAM EVEN HAD THE
ORIENTATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN...AND TIMING...WELL DEPICTED
BASED ON REALITY. FOLLOWED THE NAM FOR THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST
CYCLE.

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN THIS MORNING...ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUTH TO
CUT OFF PRECIPITATION. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR...
STORMS SHOULD REFIRE AND LEAN...ALLOWING THE UPDRAFT TO SEPARATE
FROM THE DOWNDRAFT AND STORMS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA BASICALLY SOUTH IF HIGHWAY 2
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85 IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AIDING DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH WILL BE THE NEXT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS
ENERGY IS MORE DIFFUSE...LESS FOCUSED...THAN THAT OF MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

STORMS OVERNIGHT WERE SLOW MOVING...AND BASED ON RADAR RAIN
ESTIMATES THAT ARE LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED...PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN.
SLOW MOVERS TONIGHT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ALONG WITH
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY IT
WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
GETTING AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE TOWARD
MORE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT WITH MVFR TO EVEN IFR
CEILINGS. SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS FROM KDIK TO KBIS AND KJMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST. ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH AROUND 21 UTC AT
KDIK...00 UTC AT KBIS AND 02 UTC AT KJMS. ANY STORM CAN EXPECT TO
HAVE MVFR-IFR CEILING/VSBYS IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
TURNS NORTH WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH


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