Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED. HAVE LEFT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY MENTIONS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.

INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE AND THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOG AND CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KJMS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR. FOR KBIS AND
KDIK LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR CONDITIONS. TOOK
OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TAFS AS PRECIP TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM






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